CrazyLoaf's CrazySteak(TM) High PoS Investment Journal

[CrazyLoaf]

I'm a big fan of CAP. Noticed that of the top 20 addresses 5 are not staking; accounting for approximately 10% of the supply of Bottlecaps.

I agree that it's frustrating getting buys filled but I for one, will be sending 50% of stake back to the market. Spreading the Bottlecaps around, being the change I want to see in the world...blah, blah, blah.

Good analysis! Have you checked out the rich lists of HYP, TEK, or HBN by chance?

I'm really liking CAP atm. Actually I like all the high PoS coins I've mentioned. I feel all of them are undervalued, but this is especially the case when you look at what is ahead of them on CMC. A lot of those coins are built on foundations of sand. I argue there is no reason to hold them beyond speculation. It's only a matter of time before some more serious people, even financial professionals who get into crypto as a mere hobby, jump into some of these solid coins.

It looks like TEK is getting ready to stake at around 20%-25%, as mentioned on their thread, for a lot of people. I said earlier that if TEK starts doing that, it makes CAP look a lot more attractive. Even though I have staked TEK at 40%, I am growing to prefer CAP. The reason for this is having TEK stake one day at 40%, one day at 20%, one day at 5%, etc. all in the same month is that it runs contrary to the purpose of NVCS, which is supposed to adjust the rate based on demand for stake. While crypto is fast-moving, I don't think the fundamental feature of value in a high PoS coin, the stake rate, should be subject to such wide swings over a period of one week vs the next one.

CAP had a hard fork in early July, and now 3 months later, it is paying 180%-190% vs 200% since that is what network demand says it should do. CAP is at $60k now. Recall what I said on developer costs. It's a steal on that alone, but you get whatever features are added to HBN as well.

On the other hand, TEK doesn't have a dedicated dev, a PoS rate that isn't 100% clear nor the RPC calls to see what rate is projected based on current stake difficulty. I can't even find a working online block explorer atm to check against before sending coins from my wallet.

TEK needs to fall in price on a per coin basis and/or other high PoS coins need to rise imo. Regardless, I still think high PoS as a group needs to go up in any event

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[CrazyLoaf]

Just got a PM from cycoinminer on some address staking info for HYP. Here it is:

I noticed earlier today that you'd asked the question about HYP wallets, that were unstaking - either lost from the days of TRK, corrupted, not backed up etc..... and as it happens, I made a spreadsheet of the top 50 wallets at the time (21st September), and have double checked them today to see that they're still dormant.

pQg5xVxVhrA1bHn7DTkHLZHwgoi31zbQ1b   320031.2813
pMqQmHxb9m2FJkF5Tt7zFhsBfj3Ep9CmpF   292846.0938
pPqL7tC3X8uSD1hJiZTynKHtRiWMTqpp4s   197878.5625
p9ZDWSKPZoaMpnCVhfHguaAXoZcMBivNy5   190040.0313
pAaYK2yWF4AiVupugZGrC9fQtcZ73vn1Bm   185100.0156
pKdMHLKSt1vFM8LchA2GJSSKKQuS3Kvi9e   139713.5313
pD6xijnd7mDGG5BNn1GnyQKwcaeRLFSvJg   108170.3906
pSR17prsZs3Hjos975Rw8FhcL2h8RrJnwf   80867.34375
p82QneNJebW9frANpEZceA64AbzHzRUVDF   80046.8125

Even though the bottom couple of wallets are outside the top 50 now, it gives you an idea that nearly 20% of the top 50 wallets were essentially out of the equation. The above HYP totals 1,594,694 HYP - at today's rate, that's 7.3% of HYP which is out of circulation.

Thanks cycoinminer

[CrazyLoaf]

Saw this in another thread and just had to repost it:

So I’m just going to talk out loud here, and put forward the following point of view.

Personally, I’ve not had my rigs on for a few weeks now due to the heat, and the fact that it was becoming unprofitable considering the lowering rewards, cost of electricity etc.

And then I found HyperStake.

Whilst I’ve been in HYP since the beginning, what about the people who want to get in now? Why should they bother? What’s in it for them?

Well, the first and most obvious benefit is the interest rate – which, at around 18% PER WEEK is pretty amazing, and that’s without taking into account compound interest. (around 2.05% interest per day)

So, when you think about that, if you had $1,000 and were thinking of getting into crypto, lets compare buying a GPU rig, in comparison to buying $1,000 of HYP.

Looking at NewEgg, there’s the Sapphire R9 280X Tri-X card for $289, so if you were to pick up 3 of these, picked up a decent power supply with the remainder of the $1k, and used an old motherboard, HDD, and RAM – you’ve now got yourself a 3 Rig GPU for mining.
This is where my figures may go a bit wrong (like I say, I’ve not been following mining recently) but from what I can see:

AT BEST:
3 GPU’s will give around 2MH/s Normalised mining power
TradeMyBit offers best rates of just 0.002BTC per MH/s/Day
Today’s price of BTC is roughly $375
That equates to earning $1.50 per day (0.004 BTC), from mining, not taking into account electricity.

So, to summarise:
Option 1 – Build a rig with 3 GPU’s.
Spend $1000 and earn $15 every 10 days from selling your mined BTC.

Option 2 – Buy HYP
Spend $1000 on HYP (@0.000025 / HYP) to buy 105,000 HYP and earn around 23,600 HYP in interest, worth an estimated 0.59BTC, or $220 – per 10 day period!

The other major benefit with HYP is it’s quick staking period, which allows for the potential of compound interest, over a relatively short period of time.
So, if we compare the figures again:

Option 1 – after 30 days = $45 earnings (30 x $1.50 / day)
Option 2 – after 30 days = (105,000 HYP x 2.05% ^ 30) = 88,000 HYP interest = 2.2BTC = $825 earnings

Now, all of the above assumes that prices stay somewhat static, and that your HYP matures soon after the 8.8 days it needs to produce interest payments. Prices in Crypto can move dramatically, there’s no denying that. But certainly from my point of view, it’s clear that investing in HYP is MUCH more profitable than investing in mining.

It’s worth noting that with Option 1 though, you physically still have an asset worth $ xxx.
If HYP went to the floor, you could have considerably less, but that’s a gamble you’re maybe willing to take, looking at the potential upside of HYP.

Do your own research, like I say, I just wanted to offer a view.

[presstab]

On the other hand, TEK doesn't have a dedicated dev, a PoS rate that isn't 100% clear nor the RPC calls to see what rate is projected based on current stake difficulty. I can't even find a working online block explorer atm to check against before sending coins from my wallet.

TEK needs to fall in price on a per coin basis and/or other high PoS coins need to rise imo. Regardless, I still think high PoS as a group needs to go up in any event

Thats funny, it took me about 2 minutes to add the RPC call that gives live stake rate information to TEKcoin. Wonder why they haven't put it in there yet, it only creates more confusion for the stake holders.

If anyone wants to know how to put it in, send me a pm and I can point you in the right direction.

[Hilux74]

Any thoughts on Diamond (DMD).  It has 50% interest and seems interesting in that it uses Grostl for POW.  I have watched it for months but never bought as there seems to be continual wallet issues and/or Cryptsy issues.  It looks to be having a fairly smooth upward price movement over the last month.  Not sure if I will buy any but I am thinking about putting a few older 69xx series cards towards mining it.

[Jamesco]

Some great points being made so far, any more updates on the journal so far crazyloaf? I was wondering you said you were buying more Bottlecap's and potentially others, what prices have you been buying in for? CAP market has been moving nicely lately providing more liquidity for buying and selling wasn't you was it .

[digitalindustry]

the only viable PoS system are one in which the users know there was at least a significant chance of PoW spread

HBN and Caps where both out in a time where Scrypt PoW was not a total monopoly and also it mostly ignored these systems.

these and other crypto are listed in my group under "accidents"  and can be viable, as long as other fundamental characteristics fall in place.

This is where high PoS comes into play. Even in the case of HYP, where there isn't mining, it is clear that there is a good amount of coin churning and distribution. For the last few days that I've checked, Poloniex volume alone has been around 1% of total coins. The very nature of the coins, and the desire at times to sell some stake for reasons such as consumption and investment, makes it where distribution is much fairer than other coins.

Let's compare to the typical alt. There's a super short mining period. Insiders mine/buy most the coins and hold. The price pumps up. When it's at a sufficient level, there are waves of ragedumps where insiders and early buyers sell their entire coin stash. Then the winners move on to the next coin and do it again.

High PoS is different. While for trading reasons you may sell out your whole stash, in most cases, you sell over time, and perhaps never touching your principal level that you want to keep. DRK pumped over the idea of masternodes. In reality, high PoS did this earlier, at least from an investment perspective. You "lock" the coins, generate stake, and can profit from the stake. However, these nodes aren't mere mixers, but minting/mining masternodes that distribute new coins to the economy.

100% agree with you.

this effect you speak of is after the "ball is rolling" so to speak.

so for example lets, analyze two high stake systems -

1. 6 day PoW to issue, then moves to high stake PoS.

2. a PoW that starts and continues (Caps, HBN) Then High Stake PoS.

^^^

see the potential differences here?

One can sit at the top of the Market Cap (cough cough Blackcoin) and no one will use it, and or have much interesting it. (black is low stake otherwise it would not be there) (but you get the picture)

others are organic and drive from a "bootstrap" up system which is what Crypto is.

[mtwelve]

I was playing around with some numbers since I was bored. I didn't look at the effect of compounding since I feel that, especially in the case of Tranz and Presstab, they have a better handle on avoiding obscene inflation than I do. Based on the PoS rates, I was trying to figure out what amount of BTC it would take to generate either 4 or 1 BTC a month per coin.

HYPERSTAKE

*9 days min*

40.58 stake periods per year
18.48% stake per period
3.33 stake periods per month
61.54% per month

*30 days max*

12.18 stake periods per year
61.58% stake per period/month

Need 6.5 BTC worth to generate 4 BTC monthly
1.625 BTC for 1 BTC

TEKCOIN

12.175 stake periods per year

30 days / 20% - 20 BTC / 5 BTC

30 days / 30% - 13.33 BTC / 2.67 BTC

30 days / 40% - 10 BTC / 2.5 BTC

BOTTLECAPS

*15 days min*

24.35 stake periods per year
8.21% stake per period
2 stake periods per month
16.42% per month

*45 days max*
8.12 stake periods per year
24.63% stake per period
0.66 stake periods per month
16.26% per month

Need 24.62 BTC to generate 4 BTC monthly
6.16 BTC for 1 BTC

HOBONICKELS

36.53 stake periods per year
2% stake per period
3 stake periods per month
6% per month

Need 66.67 BTC to generate 4 BTC monthly
16.67 BTC for 1 BTC

Setting up my portoflio now, really want to get at least 1 BTC into HYP before investing into other POS coins

[presstab]

I think this is the best place to leave my PoS index chart updates (CrazyLoaf calls it the presstab index  )

This index tracks price (taken daily) as well as staking.  The index starts from July 8th, 2 days after the launch of HYP, when it was trading for 1,000 sats.  This is why the increase in HYP value is so massive, well that and the fact that staking is massive.


Taking HYP out to give better perspective on the others:



% BTC value change for each since July 8th:

PeerCoin: 108.9%
Philosophers Stones: 195.5%
HoboNickels: 139.3%
GrowthCoin: 87.7% (this coin is pretty silent now)
BottleCaps: 151.2%
TruckCoin: 444.2%
TEKcoin: 88.7% (adjusted stake rate to 300% in calcs after fork)
HyperStake: 1227.7%

Average: 305.4% - These PoS coins are doing great!

[CrazyLoaf]

Awesome Presstab! I say we call this the PressDex or something like that Anyone else, feel free to start posting whatever you want high PoS on here. If we get enough routine updates from other people such as journals and coin/strategy analysis, I'll change the OP to better explain what is going on in the thread and who's doing what. Thanks

[kingscrown]

very nice topic, shame EXCL is small stake so wont fit here

[David Latapie]

I think this is the best place to leave my PoS index chart updates (CrazyLoaf calls it the presstab index  )

This index tracks price (taken daily) as well as staking.  The index starts from July 8th, 2 days after the launch of HYP, when it was trading for 1,000 sats.  This is why the increase in HYP value is so massive, well that and the fact that staking is massive.

Notice the higher-performing coins are the one with a recent new great dev (presstab and maybe me for HYP, noise23 for TRK). HBN has of course a great dev, but he is there since long. Is there a "wow great takeover" effect at work?

GrowthCoin: 87.7% (this coin is pretty silent now)

noise23 from TRK told me he will take it over if Unick doesn't go back.

Also as an aside I don't like the token mining period / POS only type coins like Hyperstake as someone has to have been aware at the right moment to have full advantage, so it is too easy for a handful of people to benefit by order of magnitudes above the subsequent waves.  I think the POW/POS format and slower distribution of HBN, CAPs and TEK to be more equitable across a wider time frame.

We are working on automating this, to prevent giving too much of an advantage to those who "go manual". I mentionned it in the HDJ ("Where no coin has gone before"): "Ultimately, only devoted holders will do it, so it would lead to a concentration of coins. Worst-case scenario, it would lead to the coin being abandonned, because it is "too cumbersome to manage". An automated system would act as an equalizer. One more thing to consider for future coding."

I'm a big fan of CAP. Noticed that of the top 20 addresses 5 are not staking; accounting for approximately 10% of the supply of Bottlecaps.

Crazy, could you check HBN and TEK too, to say how many of the highest addresses are not staking? To compare with HYP, where the top 5 are stacking.

So we're building a high PoS HQ near the BTC castle right?

AT the BTC castle You're welcome to come, book you flight with your stake

Let's compare to the typical alt. There's a super short mining period. Insiders mine/buy most the coins and hold. The price pumps up. When it's at a sufficient level, there are waves of ragedumps where insiders and early buyers sell their entire coin stash. Then the winners move on to the next coin and do it again.

High PoS is different. While for trading reasons you may sell out your whole stash, in most cases, you sell over time, and perhaps never touching your principal level that you want to keep. DRK pumped over the idea of masternodes. In reality, high PoS did this earlier, at least from an investment perspective. You "lock" the coins, generate stake, and can profit from the stake. However, these nodes aren't mere mixers, but minting/mining masternodes that distribute new coins to the economy.

Well-written!

[CrazyLoaf]

Thanks for the comments, David.

I just realized I hate how hard it is to quote just sections off older posts (does anyone know an easy way to do this other than "insert quote" and manually deleting down to the part you want to quote), so forgive me if I don't re-quote you

Re: Performing Coins

I think what we see at effect in HYP and TRK is what happens with just a little community involvement. This is part of the reason why I wanted to get a high PoS IRC channel going. I KNOW we can get some action going on these older, stable coins. The fact is, even now, a lot of people still aren't aware of high PoS coins, and the value proposition of them is much easier to "sell" to people completely new to crypto, especially those with exposure to finance.

On the format of this community, I prefer IRC to other formats since almost everyone already is using IRC and it allows for live communication as well as easily integrable things like tipbots and all that. Honestly, I don't like making accounts willy-nilly, and I think others are like me. Reduce barriers to action.

Re: Automated Coin Control

I think this could be an interesting development. I'm lazy. All I've done is break my HYP into 1600 HYP blocks and let them ride. I'm fine with a lower rate for less work since at the end of the day, in the long-run, I should be getting the same rate. Too much work, even once, can turn people off to a coin, especially if it is their first exposure to that style of coin. What would a person thinking about high PoS think if say Battlecoin (BCX) was their first coin? The wallet is old and missing GUI based unlocking features. Not everyone is familiar with RPC.

Re: Address Analysis

I'd appreciate if someone does the same for HBN and TEK I haven't been doing this so far and we've gotten really good analysis from others. TEK as far as I know doesn't have a richlist at the moment that is updated.

[Jamesco]

I think a High POS IRC channel is a great idea, it would be a really good way to get more people involved,a place to bounce idea's around and community growth.

[CrazyLoaf]

I think a High POS IRC channel is a great idea, it would be a really good way to get more people involved,a place to bounce idea's around and community growth.

Cool. I think we should get something going. I noticed I didn't post the message I put on other threads on this one, so here it is:

High PoS Coin IRC Society

So I've been watching Hyperstake (HYP) and noted that they have a fairly active community going on in their IRC. Unlike the usual junk altcoins vying to "replace BTC" before crashing in value as "investors" move on to the next coin, high PoS coins can exist in harmony since they all provide different features and risk/return profiles to the cryptocurrency *asset* market.

Right now, I'm trying to see if there is interest in having a joint IRC channel for such coins. I'm looking to involve established coins with at least semi-active developers.

Feel free to reply and/or PM me with suggestions as well as anything that you'd be willing to offer, help with, or spearhead. I don't mind topping off tipbots, games, and other aspects, but I'm looking to have something that the community runs and is interested in doing. Thanks and happy staking

[CrazyLoaf]

CrazyLoaf's CrazySteak (TM) 9/30/14 Update

Alright, this one has some older point in time data:

STAKE   NAME   BTC    COINS    AVG COST   CURRENT   VALUE   30-STAKE   ROI   PLACE    STAKE#    STAKEVAL
750%   HYP   7.00    676,955    0.00001034   0.00002740   18.55   11.42   165%   3    296,777     8.13
500%   TEK   7.70    49,744    0.00015479   0.00016832   8.37   2.51   9%   ?    9,293     1.56
200%   CAP   5.00    195,640    0.00002556   0.00002960   5.79   0.95   16%   7    28,229     0.84
100%   HBN   8.85    153,484    0.00005766   0.00008566   13.15   0.79   49%   6    12,871     1.10

Investment is 28.55 BTC. Current value is 45.86 BTC. Total value of staked coins 11.63 BTC.

[waxo]

It will be interesting to compare the BTC volume also...
good job crazyloaf !
!tip crazyloaf 52000

[glendall]

HBN has been on a nice steady climb recently ! Great to see hit .0001 again today.  Wish I had grabbed more when it was at 0.00005! 

I picked up some more HYP to diversify my own PoS portfolio. Should be interesting to see how fast the coins rolls in from the super-stake.

[5ick3uffalo]

What´s your thoughts on SSD (Sonic Drewdriver) SHA 256 PoS coin?

[CrazyLoaf]

What´s your thoughts on SSD (Sonic Drewdriver) SHA 256 PoS coin?

Sonic is only 20% PoS. You don't see a compounding effect until 25% based on StakeHunter's analysis. I don't think that's high enough. Also it seems to have the same investment base as SUPER, in that they are looking for anon features vs high PoS. What does everyone else think?