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Question: In the possible reasons listed, which do you think is true?
Bitcoin is actually used in daily transactions, pinned to real-world commodities, therefore more or less anchored already. - 12 (8.8%)
The interest rate system introduced by Bitcoinica provides a negative feedback loop. - 8 (5.9%)
Early adoptors and hoarders are manipulating the price to maintain a stablility illusion. - 20 (14.7%)
People are becoming less fanatic towards both rallies and dips. - 25 (18.4%)
It just happens, as a coincidence lasting for months, no more. - 8 (5.9%)
Several reasons here are true. - 32 (23.5%)
None of the reasons here is true. - 7 (5.1%)
There are more speculators. Their bets neutralize each other. - 24 (17.6%)
Total Voters: 135

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Author Topic: Why is the price so stable?  (Read 3634 times)
drlatino999
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May 01, 2012, 02:42:53 AM
 #21

It's a lot of reasons, but I think the biggest reason is that miners are willing to bring their product to market too cheaply. They can't be making much over cost.

If I sell everything I mine per day, I'm looking at 60% over electrical costs, not too shabby.
Does that take into account your capital investment and maintenance, among other costs?

Capital Investment was the cost of the additional 3 GPU's and 1 powersupply, that was paid off in the fall as the price slid down.
Maintenance - I have had no failures running 24/7 since October.

My net cost for electricity per 24h is ~$2.72 @ $0.103/kWh.

Now if we put a quantitative cost on my time I spend tinkering, I'm pretty sure I'm a factor in the US national debt Cheesy

Sappers clear the way
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mb300sd
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May 01, 2012, 03:29:47 AM
 #22

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.

1D7FJWRzeKa4SLmTznd3JpeNU13L1ErEco
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May 01, 2012, 03:33:11 AM
 #23

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.

SELL ALL THE COINS!  Grin
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May 01, 2012, 03:34:47 AM
 #24

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.

SELL ALL THE COINS!  Grin

 now I'm starting to think the

"There are more speculators. Their bets neutralize each other."

might just be spot on...

phorensic
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May 01, 2012, 05:24:17 AM
 #25

It's a lot of reasons, but I think the biggest reason is that miners are willing to bring their product to market too cheaply. They can't be making much over cost.

If I sell everything I mine per day, I'm looking at 60% over electrical costs, not too shabby.
Does that take into account your capital investment and maintenance, among other costs?

Capital Investment was the cost of the additional 3 GPU's and 1 powersupply, that was paid off in the fall as the price slid down.
Maintenance - I have had no failures running 24/7 since October.

My net cost for electricity per 24h is ~$2.72 @ $0.103/kWh.

Now if we put a quantitative cost on my time I spend tinkering, I'm pretty sure I'm a factor in the US national debt Cheesy
That's some pretty cheap electricity.  That's why he is at 60% profit.
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May 01, 2012, 06:00:42 AM
 #26

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.

SELL ALL THE COINS!  Grin

 now I'm starting to think the

"There are more speculators. Their bets neutralize each other."

might just be spot on...

TH reason for the flat prices are not more speculators (we rather have fewer of them). The simple reason is the chart picture of bitcoin/USD. After a huge 3.5-fold rally from Nov 11, prices need to consolidate this rally. This will change after this consolidation is over.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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westkybitcoins
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May 01, 2012, 06:12:32 AM
 #27

I suspect Goldman Sachs and associates.

(And yes, I'm referring to the news from Reuters.)

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
miscreanity
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May 01, 2012, 07:20:49 AM
 #28

TH reason for the flat prices are not more speculators (we rather have fewer of them). The simple reason is the chart picture of bitcoin/USD. After a huge 3.5-fold rally from Nov 11, prices need to consolidate this rally. This will change after this consolidation is over.

This assumes either everyone involved with Bitcoin is trading, or the chart pattern is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either way, the over-simplification is preposterous.

Remember: there really is a world outside of squiggly lines on a screen. Fundamentals trump technicals.
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May 01, 2012, 07:40:00 AM
 #29

"Simplicity is the seal of truth."

But my rational mind does appreciate many of your posts miscreanity Smiley

"Nature is wonderfully simple, and the characteristic mark of a childlike simplicity is stamped upon all that is true and noble in Nature."
Excerpt from The Story of Alchemy and the Beginnings of Chemistry.

I am quite fond of simplicity and believe life as a whole can be greatly simplified, I am looking forward to an extreme simplification of the financial world.

S3052
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May 01, 2012, 05:46:40 PM
 #30

TH reason for the flat prices are not more speculators (we rather have fewer of them). The simple reason is the chart picture of bitcoin/USD. After a huge 3.5-fold rally from Nov 11, prices need to consolidate this rally. This will change after this consolidation is over.

This assumes either everyone involved with Bitcoin is trading, or the chart pattern is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either way, the over-simplification is preposterous.

Remember: there really is a world outside of squiggly lines on a screen. Fundamentals trump technicals.

Everyone has the right to believe what he thinks is right. I believe the socionomics theory more, whcih says that the market itself is the best leading indicator for the economy and social mood.

http://socionomics.com/

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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mb300sd
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May 02, 2012, 12:42:26 AM
 #31

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.



.....told ya it would happen.

1D7FJWRzeKa4SLmTznd3JpeNU13L1ErEco
waspoza
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May 02, 2012, 04:41:04 AM
 #32

Not going to be for long... how do I know? I just sold some, so its going up.



.....told ya it would happen.

Omg best indicator evar. Wink
miscreanity
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May 02, 2012, 08:26:42 AM
 #33

"Simplicity is the seal of truth."

But my rational mind does appreciate many of your posts miscreanity Smiley

"Nature is wonderfully simple, and the characteristic mark of a childlike simplicity is stamped upon all that is true and noble in Nature."
Excerpt from The Story of Alchemy and the Beginnings of Chemistry.

I am quite fond of simplicity and believe life as a whole can be greatly simplified, I am looking forward to an extreme simplification of the financial world.

Thanks Smiley

A corollary is that complexity arises from simplicity. My issue is that the level of analysis provided by S3052 pertains to the trading environment but was being applied to areas in which it is not appropriate. Trading is a major part of a dynamic system, but it is not the entire system.

Everyone has the right to believe what he thinks is right.

Certainly. Now for some debate Smiley

I believe the socionomics theory more, whcih says that the market itself is the best leading indicator for the economy and social mood.

Even when a market is no longer a market? Social mood can't change the fact that food is necessary for survival.

It doesn't help that I'm not fond of Prechter, to be euphemistic. Adherence to one side without flexibility to account for variable conditions has resulted in his incessant calls for gold topping and being wrong every time.

2009: Prechter Says Gold & Silver Due for a Major Fall
2010: Gold could fall 40 percent from peak: Prechter
2011: Gold's Short-Term Move: Evidence of a Longer Trend?
2012: Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave Intl. on how Social Mood Drives Markets

For a while now, fundamental reality has been the dominant force - not the whim of hopes and dreams. The "social mood" is being led around by the nose, and conditions are nowhere near right for "socionomics" to be valid. Maybe another decade or two from now, in China.
hazek
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May 02, 2012, 12:10:34 PM
 #34

the goal of the market has always been to find the true price of bitcoin.

Exactly. But in the beginning the market lacked all the tools needed for everyone to be able to make the exact bets they wanted to make.

Now with well developed services to move funds to and from the exchanges, well developed bots to help shorten the reaction time to the market price action, the ability to make big bets on either side on bitcoinca and the fairly liquid biggest exchange is a nice basket of tools that allows game theory to fully play itself out and stabilize the price.

I voted: "There are more speculators. Their bets neutralize each other." because it's the closest to the above real answer. It's not just more speculators it's also more speculators with more tools that allow them more freedom and higher efficiency in their speculating. But ultimately these are just the players and it's the game theory that's really the cause of what we see (that "Their bets neutralize each other." part).

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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May 02, 2012, 07:28:14 PM
 #35

"Simplicity is the seal of truth."

But my rational mind does appreciate many of your posts miscreanity Smiley

"Nature is wonderfully simple, and the characteristic mark of a childlike simplicity is stamped upon all that is true and noble in Nature."
Excerpt from The Story of Alchemy and the Beginnings of Chemistry.

I am quite fond of simplicity and believe life as a whole can be greatly simplified, I am looking forward to an extreme simplification of the financial world.

Thanks Smiley

A corollary is that complexity arises from simplicity. My issue is that the level of analysis provided by S3052 pertains to the trading environment but was being applied to areas in which it is not appropriate. Trading is a major part of a dynamic system, but it is not the entire system.

Everyone has the right to believe what he thinks is right.

Certainly. Now for some debate Smiley

I believe the socionomics theory more, whcih says that the market itself is the best leading indicator for the economy and social mood.

Even when a market is no longer a market? Social mood can't change the fact that food is necessary for survival.

It doesn't help that I'm not fond of Prechter, to be euphemistic. Adherence to one side without flexibility to account for variable conditions has resulted in his incessant calls for gold topping and being wrong every time.

2009: Prechter Says Gold & Silver Due for a Major Fall
2010: Gold could fall 40 percent from peak: Prechter
2011: Gold's Short-Term Move: Evidence of a Longer Trend?
2012: Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave Intl. on how Social Mood Drives Markets

For a while now, fundamental reality has been the dominant force - not the whim of hopes and dreams. The "social mood" is being led around by the nose, and conditions are nowhere near right for "socionomics" to be valid. Maybe another decade or two from now, in China.

I agree with you that Robert Prechter has underestimated the insane money printing from the Fed and the effect that this had. At the same time, his real trading recommendations have mad big money. He does not give actual trading recos very often as a friend of mine who is subcriber told me. Prechter gives only about one recos per asset class every year or even couple of years. And these trade have either been stopped out quickly with minimal losses, or they pocketed huge gains. I.e. over the past 5 years, 2-3 S&P500 short recos were only losing 10-50 points each, and then one winner gained 600-700 points.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Explodicle
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May 02, 2012, 08:01:08 PM
 #36

Quote
Early adoptors and hoarders are manipulating the price to maintain a stablility illusion.

To those who voted for this - how does such a large and accidental group of people actually collude? The only way they could even DETECT someone defecting from this prisoner's dilemma would be if they all shared their wallet addresses with each other, giving up their privacy.

IMHO the early adopters and hoarders here can barely agree on anything. Remember the long and visible argument over BIP 16? No offense, but they lack the social skills and organization needed to maintain a conspiracy for days, let alone months.

Of course, I'm a hoarder too so maybe I'm just trying to throw you guys off... Tongue
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May 02, 2012, 08:17:35 PM
 #37

After looking at these again, Bitcoin is starting to look pretty stable:



 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2012-01-28zeg2012-05-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25


That is, considering what is happening in precious metals:



 - http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=d1

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May 02, 2012, 08:34:42 PM
 #38

I mine. My electricity cost .07/kWh for the first 250 kilowatt hours. After that it's .02/kWh for the rest of the month.

I haven't sold the first coin I've mined in months. Discuss. How might my actions effect the discussion of this thread?

Where do you live if I may ask? Do you have your own solar park?

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May 02, 2012, 08:57:25 PM
 #39

I haven't sold the first coin I've mined in months. Discuss. How might my actions effect the discussion of this thread?

Last week when the exchange rate was $4.85 ish, I sent some USDs to my exchange account to buy BTCs needed to make a purchase.  Because of the reliance on the banking system to move those funds, I just got access to those funds in my exchange account today.

Because you were hoarding your bitcoins and not selling yours at the $5 level, for instance, and others were not willing to sell at that price either, that means that today I had to pay $5.10 for my latest trade.  At the same time, however, the price for the item that I purchased in terms of BTCs was lowered.

So even though your hoarding (and that of others) changed the exchange rate it made no difference to me in making my purchase.  My $100 of USDs bought the same item today just as it would have had I done so last week.

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May 02, 2012, 08:59:11 PM
 #40

My interpretation of these events is that one or more people with some money to throw around caught on to the fact that Bitcoin was volatile despite no change in fundamentals, and so started playing volatility. Get enough people playing volatility, and volatility decreases.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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