emergency forecast alert

[Xiaoxiao]

Through tonight to sunday, there won't be much price change... will float around 380-410... but come monday or tuesday, a sell off of monumental magnitudes will ensue.  I believe those will be the hesistant miners cutting their losses for this year.

Right now there is hesistation to sell, but strong hands are becoming shakier....

the drop to the sub 300s and 200s might happen sooner than i had thought.

Bitcoin certainly HAD potential last year this time.  But as it was revealed to the masses, people aren't exactly thrilled by its protocol and such.  Sure the protocol "works".  I mean, if it doesn't even work, then it shouldn't exist in the first place.

The argument that it "works" doesn't mean it is revolutionary.  

[zeroday]

Leverage shorts all the way. Time to make money

[Tzupy]

Maybe, but I doubt it, BDD shows yet no signs of early adopters panicking. However miners may sell a lot.
And considering how long market moves take, I'd say that after the current drop ends into consolidation,
there could be some 10 days sideways before the next major drop. IMO 4 days seems too soon.

[Argwai96]

While I tend to agree that more down is incoming, shorting $400 is very risky. Better to wait for a bounce to short or otherwise watch for the breakout to the downside.

[megadeth]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

[Argwai96]

Maybe, but I doubt it, BDD shows yet no signs of early adopters panicking. However miners may sell a lot.
And considering how long market moves take, I'd say that after the current drop ends into consolidation,
there could be some 10 days sideways before the next major drop. IMO 4 days seems too soon.

I don't think we can get to $200s that quickly. I think though that we may have another down leg to this move, maybe get into that $340-360 range. I can't imagine bulls don't want to defend that level.

[zeroday]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

This is why BTC ATMs are invading our planet
Now we need cheap coins to attract more followers.

[mccoyspace]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

Except that it might be worth 500k when you get to the other side.

[Tzupy]

Maybe, but I doubt it, BDD shows yet no signs of early adopters panicking. However miners may sell a lot.
And considering how long market moves take, I'd say that after the current drop ends into consolidation,
there could be some 10 days sideways before the next major drop. IMO 4 days seems too soon.

I don't think we can get to $200s that quickly. I think though that we may have another down leg to this move, maybe get into that $340-360 range. I can't imagine bulls don't want to defend that level.

I didn't say drop to 200$. My current prediction for the bottom is 250$ - 300$, in the second half of October (already posted that days ago).
I have no reason to change it yet. Bulls can't defend much, they hold BTC, it's the bears (holding fiat) that define support levels.

[Argwai96]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

And why is BTC the only thing capable of doing this? The blockchain protocol is what is important. Whether or not BTC maintains the dominant position in implementations of the blockchain is the question.

[Argwai96]

Maybe, but I doubt it, BDD shows yet no signs of early adopters panicking. However miners may sell a lot.
And considering how long market moves take, I'd say that after the current drop ends into consolidation,
there could be some 10 days sideways before the next major drop. IMO 4 days seems too soon.

I don't think we can get to $200s that quickly. I think though that we may have another down leg to this move, maybe get into that $340-360 range. I can't imagine bulls don't want to defend that level.

I didn't say drop to 200$. My current prediction for the bottom is 250$ - 300$, in the second half of October (already posted that days ago).
I have no reason to change it yet. Bulls can't defend much, they hold BTC, it's the bears (holding fiat) that define support levels.

Just to clarify -- the OP said $200s. And I also said $200s. (Not $200) I agree that $250 is a likely floor, though I wouldn't rule out a wick to the $230 level either.

[Xiaoxiao]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders... but people have been treating bitcoin differently and way over valuing it, like the housing market of early 2000s.  lol @ going all in on mining gear and paper wallets.

And also, this luxury won't be happening for long, the whole anonymity thing.  I hope what seems like the inevitable won't be happening.

[spazzdla]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders...

I could have a need to take my life savings to a different country........ ONLY BTC will allow me to do this.

[Chuckee]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

And if it were this morning, that $1 million is worth only $900k by the time you get to the other side of the border  

years of diligent saving... *poof*

[Xiaoxiao]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

And if it were this morning, that $1 million is worth only $900k by the time you get to the other side of the border  

if you were flying virgin airlines, you'd have an internet connection and be able to sell... but then again, by the time you arrive at your destination, you could have screwed up your trades and have only $500k left!  

[Ibian]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders... but people have been treating bitcoin differently and way over valuing it, like the housing market of early 2000s.  lol @ going all in on mining gear and paper wallets.

And also, this luxury won't be happening for long, the whole anonymity thing.  I hope what seems like the inevitable won't be happening.

Stricter currency controls are likely in the near future. Legislation is being put into place - and is already in place in some countries - to legally confiscate private saving accounts. There will be another major crisis, and relatively soon. And more after that.

[Xiaoxiao]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders... but people have been treating bitcoin differently and way over valuing it, like the housing market of early 2000s.  lol @ going all in on mining gear and paper wallets.

And also, this luxury won't be happening for long, the whole anonymity thing.  I hope what seems like the inevitable won't be happening.

Stricter currency controls are likely in the near future. Legislation is being put into place - and is already in place in some countries - to legally confiscate private saving accounts. There will be another major crisis, and relatively soon. And more after that.

Yep bitcoin will be like greek mythology years from now.  I can tell my grand grand kids the legend of the bitcoin when we visit a museum showing bitcoins!  "The currency that didn't work"

[Ibian]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders... but people have been treating bitcoin differently and way over valuing it, like the housing market of early 2000s.  lol @ going all in on mining gear and paper wallets.

And also, this luxury won't be happening for long, the whole anonymity thing.  I hope what seems like the inevitable won't be happening.

Stricter currency controls are likely in the near future. Legislation is being put into place - and is already in place in some countries - to legally confiscate private saving accounts. There will be another major crisis, and relatively soon. And more after that.

Yep bitcoin will be like greek mythology years from now.  I can tell my grand grand kids the legend of the bitcoin!

Sarcasm detector going nuts, but yes. Bitcoin has, at minimum, the potential to change the world. And if it does, and you were part of it? "Grandpa, did you really hodl through the year long bear market of 2014?".

[Newbie1022]

Storing $1 Million in your head while walking across a border is worth it for BTC to exist.

True, but the general public doesn't have 1m, nor need to take more than $9000 over boarders... but people have been treating bitcoin differently and way over valuing it, like the housing market of early 2000s.  lol @ going all in on mining gear and paper wallets.

And also, this luxury won't be happening for long, the whole anonymity thing.  I hope what seems like the inevitable won't be happening.

Stricter currency controls are likely in the near future. Legislation is being put into place - and is already in place in some countries - to legally confiscate private saving accounts. There will be another major crisis, and relatively soon. And more after that.

Yep bitcoin will be like greek mythology years from now.  I can tell my grand grand kids the legend of the bitcoin!

Sarcasm detector going nuts, but yes. Bitcoin has, at minimum, the potential to change the world. And if it does, and you were part of it? "Grandpa, did you really hodl through the year long bear market of 2014?".

There are medicines to help with delusions. No kid will say that ever. That doesn't even mean that the price won't go up or all will turn out well... but that s--- is delusional, bro.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I tend to agree that there will be more downside, but I also want to point out a fact about BTC or investments in general.


When price goes up, it is easy to see BTC as a revolutionary technology that could change the world and that has incredible advantages over other means of payment, but when the markets are really bearish and price is falling BTC starts to appear redundant, not particularly useful, everybody starts to talk about its flaws and various other issues related, even though nothing particularly changed fundamentals wise between the two scenarios (only more good news).
It's a cognitive bias, even if valid points can be made in the two situations.

I think the reason for this constant downtrend is simply too much supply (3k BTC created a day if I'm not mistaken) for the current demand.
BTC has probably been overpumped, overhyped, overbought (but especially the last bubble) and demand simply is not there.
It needed a "price reset" and maybe this "price reset" isn't over yet.