Cost of mining 1 Bitcoin hits market price in Nov... What will happen?

[realbtcdealers4real]

well so far my 1 BTC buy of $380.01 is holding...come on baby be the low rise rise rise

(No it won't work..but neither will my dreams of dating a super model unless bitcoin comes thru in 5-10 years ..
that makes one highly motivated to HODL let me tell you and still better odds the winning the lottery my
other long term investment shortcut )

You'll need a couple more than 1 BTC if you want to date a super model. The only people dating supermodels will be the early adopters, we are peasants. Maybe we can impress Jeniffer the cashier at walmart with our 1 BTC investment.

[Oscilson]

What is BTM?

[IIOII]

Cost of mining 1 Bitcoin hits market price... What will happen?

Well, either market price will rise again, hashrate / difficulty will drop, or both.

But I think it will not happen directly, because miners do not always strictly follow economic logic. So they could continue to mine, even if it's not profitable at the moment and simply hoard BTC while waiting for higher prices.

I don't expect another significant decline in price.

[Oscilson]

Well, either market price will rise again, hashrate / difficulty will drop, or both.

But I think it will not happen directly, because miners do not always strictly follow economic logic. So they could continue to mine, even if it's not profitable at the moment and simply hoard BTC while waiting for higher prices.

I don't expect another significant decline in price.

But those continue to mine will not sell at this price.

[FreedomCoin]

Cost of mining 1 Bitcoin hits market price... What will happen?

Well, either market price will rise again, hashrate / difficulty will drop, or both.

But I think it will not happen directly, because miners do not always strictly follow economic logic. So they could continue to mine, even if it's not profitable at the moment and simply hoard BTC while waiting for higher prices.

I don't expect another significant decline in price.

yes, what is it?

And regarding home miners not mining anymore, do not forget about those that mine to also heat their homes in the winter.. not everyone has gas heaters.

[polynesia]

Well, either market price will rise again, hashrate / difficulty will drop, or both.

But I think it will not happen directly, because miners do not always strictly follow economic logic. So they could continue to mine, even if it's not profitable at the moment and simply hoard BTC while waiting for higher prices.

I don't expect another significant decline in price.

But those continue to mine will not sell at this price.

If they need cash to pay their electricity bills, they still might sell bitcoins.
They will continue mining until the price of bitcoins covers their marginal cost.

[bitpump]

I wonder how many people that quoted the OP's graph realize that the graph has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

You are completely right.

Here is correct image:

Cost of mining 1 Bitcoin hits market price in Nov... What will happen?



Source:  https://twitter.com/bitpump/status/508179636816478208

[odolvlobo]

As the difficulty rises, the slower and less efficient equipment will be replaced by faster and more efficient equipment. The hash rate will continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate. I believe that this is already happening -- lately, the difficulty has been rising at a much slower rate than last year.

Furthermore, if the price continues to fall, then the difficulty will eventually start to fall.

I would like to point out that we have already seen this play out with GPUs. Miners swapped out less efficient GPUs for more efficient GPUs as the were developed. We also saw the difficulty drop when the block reward halving made it unprofitable to mine with less efficient GPUs.

[Nagle]

This has been discussed to death over in Mining Speculation. The general consensus is that it's correct. Mining is now unprofitable for everybody but very large scale miners with access to cheap power, cheap labor, cheap cooling, and cheap ASICs. If the difficulty continues to climb anywhere near the current rate, even they will be losing money by the end of 2014.

Nobody is clear on what will happen then. Will the big mining farms start to shut down? Will there be a period when all miners are losing money? Will the next generation of ASICs obsolete all the old mining gear? In any case, something big has to break by the end of the year.

In the last six months,  Bitcoin difficulty has gone to the moon, while Bitcoin price has gone nowhere. The amount of mining activity seems to have no effect on price.

[designfail]

late miners are already selling their equipment coz they cant make profit out of it and unfortunately for them its also a negative income

"Late miners" are joining alt coins pools. When I hooked up a cpiple of my old Ant U1s to a peercoin pool, the diff was somewhere in 100s. Now it is in 400s.

[odolvlobo]

Nobody is clear on what will happen then. Will the big mining farms start to shut down? Will there be a period when all miners are losing money? Will the next generation of ASICs obsolete all the old mining gear? In any case, something big has to break by the end of the year.

Less efficient miners will stop mining to the point where the difficulty is low enough that the most efficient miners can continue to make a profit. There is no scenario in which all miners will stop mining. Nothing big is going to happen. As I wrote previously, we have already been through this.

[David Rabahy]

In my opinion it is a very good thing to have the most hashing power up and running at all times possible to secure the network against hostile attacks.  This is a "tax" well worth paying.  I'd go so far as to say I'd support the idea of having government sponsored hashing power online rather than paying for it by trying to increase the debasing of the Bitcoin value.

[money420weed]

The "cost" of mining is only an average and is not the same for everyone. If the cost of mining 1 bitcoin is above the price of bitcoin for a long enough time period for a specific miner then the miner will likely be taken offline and potentially sold (if possible). As a result the hashrate will decrease a little bit (or increase less by a little bit). This process will continue until the price of bitcoin is above the highest cost of mining on the network is below the market price of bitcoin.

The only exception to this rule is when the cost of mining is prepaid (usually via cloud mining contracts), and these miners will stay online regardless of the price of bitcoin

This hits the mark. When the average cost of mining approaches the market value of bitcoin, less efficient miners will be taken offline, causing the average cost of mining to decrease.

The average cost of mining will all but certainly never actually hit the market price of bitcoin

[odolvlobo]

The average cost of mining will all but certainly never actually hit the market price of bitcoin

That assumes that people are rational, but in reality people will mine bitcoins at a loss, so the average cost of mining a bitcoin may exceed the price of a bitcoin.

[deluxeCITY]

The average cost of mining will all but certainly never actually hit the market price of bitcoin

That assumes that people are rational, but in reality people will mine bitcoins at a loss, so the average cost of mining a bitcoin may exceed the price of a bitcoin.

They may happen temporarily as people do not calculate the cost of mining on a real time basis. I would say that once a miner's electric bill arrives and it is determined that a miner is spending more on electricity then they are making via mining they would simply disconnect the miner and buy whatever coins on an exchange that they hoped to earn via mining

[lyth0s]

Speculation will keep a lot of miners mining, even if they are going into short term debt. As far as big mining companies go, they may also mine into debt based on speculation and then when their debt burden becomes to high they will most likely just seek more investors that will be willing to help cover the cost also secondary to speculation of a greater return in the future.

[statdude]

A little confused why you are using a BitMark chart yet I see no BitMark discussion, only Bitcoin?

[Oscilson]

well so far my 1 BTC buy of $380.01 is holding...come on baby be the low rise rise rise

(No it won't work..but neither will my dreams of dating a super model unless bitcoin comes thru in 5-10 years ..
that makes one highly motivated to HODL let me tell you and still better odds the winning the lottery my
other long term investment shortcut )

You'll need a couple more than 1 BTC if you want to date a super model. The only people dating supermodels will be the early adopters, we are peasants. Maybe we can impress Jeniffer the cashier at walmart with our 1 BTC investment.

We are early adopters comparing to future generation. So we are able to date super model in 10 years time.

[jjacob]

well so far my 1 BTC buy of $380.01 is holding...come on baby be the low rise rise rise

(No it won't work..but neither will my dreams of dating a super model unless bitcoin comes thru in 5-10 years ..
that makes one highly motivated to HODL let me tell you and still better odds the winning the lottery my
other long term investment shortcut )

You'll need a couple more than 1 BTC if you want to date a super model. The only people dating supermodels will be the early adopters, we are peasants. Maybe we can impress Jeniffer the cashier at walmart with our 1 BTC investment.

We are early adopters comparing to future generation. So we are able to date super model in 10 years time.

At that time, the real early adopters will be ruling the world. 

[Oscilson]

The average cost of mining will all but certainly never actually hit the market price of bitcoin

That assumes that people are rational, but in reality people will mine bitcoins at a loss, so the average cost of mining a bitcoin may exceed the price of a bitcoin.

That is right. I used to mine BTC at loss, I also mine some altcoin at loss at the moment.