Where are we?

[Clegg]

We are still in the early adopter. Just wait till the big guys like Amazon and Paypal / eBay and other industries start dabbling in bitcoin then you'll see.

[SilentJohn]

we are definetly in the innovator | early adopter line. as more bitcoin infrastructure is being built. even the bitcoin protocol is still at 0.9 meaning its not even version 1 yet.

bitcoin is not the dying breed, cyberpinoy is the dying breed. he thinks demand is dying. the actual reality is that bitcoin is not dying, just the PHP exchanges are dying.

i personally trade away from exchanges and the demand is HUGE. the simple fact is that whales wont touch PHP exchanges due to lack of trust of third parties, and AMLKYC regulations limiting FIAT movements.

so these PHP based exchanges are no longer playing around with 50k coins a day, but rather 12k a day. whilst private trading has increased immensely.

i truly laugh at cyberpinoy because he is watching the outdated and dying exchanges that play 99% with satoshi dust amounts per trade, while the smart ones are seeing large volumes and better prices of $500, simply because people can get bitcoin from fiat alot easier privately instead of through the red tape of exchanges.

a prime example of what everyone should be doing is what happened in February 2014. once people realized they could not get FIAT out of MTGOX. yea it took them from December 2013 - February 2014 to realize it, but once they did the smart ones ignored mtgox's price and started to value bitcoins from other sources. even when mtgox sank to $100, no one gave a crap, as the other exchanges remained at 4x that value.

i cannot wait for the basement dweller coded exchanges to die off and the people to start to value bitcoin based on private trading rather then trying to peg the value of 13million+ coins based on movements of just a few thousand coins on an PHP exchange.

Franky, quick (and might be stupid) question but how are bitcoins being valued outside of the PHP exchanges?

[Beliathon]

This is a bell curve. We are by mathematical definition well within the "innovator" portion of that curve, as less than 1% of the world's population currently uses Bitcoin.

I have marked 0.5% for you in red, to give you an idea of just how early we are in this game.

with DELL and paypal and other big names jumping in, we are at the Early Majority.

It turns out Bitcoin is not limited to use by American companies, but is in fact a global currency useable to all businesses and all people. You must consider the fraction of potential use cases, be scientific.

[Chris_Sabian]

Early adopters.  Gone are the days of 100-1000x returns.  Maybe we will get a return of 10x in the next year and maybe $25,000 coin in the distant future if everything works out ok.

[turvarya]

This is a bell curve. We are by mathematical definition well within the "innovator" portion of that curve, as less than 1% of the world's population currently uses Bitcoin.

I have marked 0.5% for you in red, to give you an idea of just how early we are in this game.

with DELL and paypal and other big names jumping in, we are at the Early Majority.

It turns out Bitcoin is not limited to use by American companies, but is in fact a global currency useable to all businesses and all people. You must consider the fraction of potential use cases, be scientific.

You make the assumption that 100% of the world's population will use bitcoins eventually. That's just not gonna happen.
Just 39% of the world population is currently using the Internet.

[Oscilson]

This is a bell curve. We are by mathematical definition well within the "innovator" portion of that curve, as less than 1% of the world's population currently uses Bitcoin.

I have marked 0.5% for you in red, to give you an idea of just how early we are in this game.

with DELL and paypal and other big names jumping in, we are at the Early Majority.

It turns out Bitcoin is not limited to use by American companies, but is in fact a global currency useable to all businesses and all people. You must consider the fraction of potential use cases, be scientific.

You make the assumption that 100% of the world's population will use bitcoins eventually. That's just not gonna happen.
Just 39% of the world population is currently using the Internet.

Even if 10% of world population use BTC, it will be enormous.

[Nagle]

Bitcoin owners are in the position of Segway owners. It works surprisingly well. It's useful. It's not going to go big.

[realdope]

Im pretty sure we aren't past early adopter phase. Only after we get "Pay with Bitcoin" in big ass places such as ebay, we'll see a legitimate big adoption happening. Pretty sure we are now in stealth phase.

[franky1]

we are definetly in the innovator | early adopter line. as more bitcoin infrastructure is being built. even the bitcoin protocol is still at 0.9 meaning its not even version 1 yet.

bitcoin is not the dying breed, cyberpinoy is the dying breed. he thinks demand is dying. the actual reality is that bitcoin is not dying, just the PHP exchanges are dying.

i personally trade away from exchanges and the demand is HUGE. the simple fact is that whales wont touch PHP exchanges due to lack of trust of third parties, and AMLKYC regulations limiting FIAT movements.

so these PHP based exchanges are no longer playing around with 50k coins a day, but rather 12k a day. whilst private trading has increased immensely.

i truly laugh at cyberpinoy because he is watching the outdated and dying exchanges that play 99% with satoshi dust amounts per trade, while the smart ones are seeing large volumes and better prices of $500, simply because people can get bitcoin from fiat alot easier privately instead of through the red tape of exchanges.

a prime example of what everyone should be doing is what happened in February 2014. once people realized they could not get FIAT out of MTGOX. yea it took them from December 2013 - February 2014 to realize it, but once they did the smart ones ignored mtgox's price and started to value bitcoins from other sources. even when mtgox sank to $100, no one gave a crap, as the other exchanges remained at 4x that value.

i cannot wait for the basement dweller coded exchanges to die off and the people to start to value bitcoin based on private trading rather then trying to peg the value of 13million+ coins based on movements of just a few thousand coins on an PHP exchange.

Could you please explain, what you mean by private trading? Do you mean e.g. LocalBitcoins?

localbitcoins
bitcoinOTC
private sites
other places that only whales (1000+btc) know, that wont be posted on public forums for noobs to invade

you will see that once public OTC's/ETF's are properly running, they will take over where basement dweller PHP exchanges left off.

[franky1]

Bitcoin owners are in the position of Segway owners. It works surprisingly well. It's useful. It's not going to go big.

segways are not that useful... the purpose of a segway is for the lazy person, yet the majority of lazy people are too fat and exceed the maximum weight to use one... thus segway has a very narrow niche..

bitcoins niche is ANYONE and EVERYONE, should they voluntarily choose to use it

[promojo]

Very early stage... Still in incubator stage... The mining part has taken off to the moon but adoption and coin buying has not.

Hope that helps.

[jbreher]

Just 39% of the world population is currently using the Internet.

Just to ensure that I understand- you're expecting this percentage to decrease over the coming years?

[ellen_me]

I am in the late majority and hoping not really late yet. 

[cryptomad]

We are in the land of bitcoinz

[Oscilson]

I am in the late majority and hoping not really late yet. 

No problem. BTC and other crypto currency are innovating themselves. You are not too late.

[mlferro]

Normal distribution?

[realbtcdealers4real]

with DELL and paypal and other big names jumping in, we are at the Early Majority.
C'mon 5 years passed

http://www.tumotech.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/adoption-curve-tom-fishbourne.png

If we are at the early majority, then it means the price will never achieve ATH again.
Also, what the hell does early majority mean for you? If I ask around in real life, no one knows what the fuck Bitcoin is neither they are interested.

[caribbeanbitcoiner]

Normal distribution?

Technology adoption lifecycle

[Eotnak]

I humble opinion:  I believe we are at the chasm.  Bitcoin's major obstacle right now is avoiding obscurity.  Anyone who would be in the early majority has already heard of Bitcoin but is not buying in because there is no gain for them at present, or they listen to others opinions on the subject who are giving misleading/false information, or many other reasons.  I also believe that the potential, the enormous VC interest, and the growing list of vendors will push us up and over and at some point, the early majority will pull the trigger.  The fact that Bitcoin is global cannot be ignored.  Mass adoption has way too many places to come from. 

Bitcoin owners are in the position of Segway owners. It works surprisingly well. It's useful. It's not going to go big.

segways are not that useful... the purpose of a segway is for the lazy person, yet the majority of lazy people are too fat and exceed the maximum weight to use one... thus segway has a very narrow niche..

bitcoins niche is ANYONE and EVERYONE, should they voluntarily choose to use it

the Segway comment made me pause, but franky1 is dead on.  Look at the scooter market.  Those things have nice little baskets to put your twinkies in.

we are definetly in the innovator | early adopter line. as more bitcoin infrastructure is being built. even the bitcoin protocol is still at 0.9 meaning its not even version 1 yet.

bitcoin is not the dying breed, cyberpinoy is the dying breed. he thinks demand is dying. the actual reality is that bitcoin is not dying, just the PHP exchanges are dying.

i personally trade away from exchanges and the demand is HUGE. the simple fact is that whales wont touch PHP exchanges due to lack of trust of third parties, and AMLKYC regulations limiting FIAT movements.

so these PHP based exchanges are no longer playing around with 50k coins a day, but rather 12k a day. whilst private trading has increased immensely.

i truly laugh at cyberpinoy because he is watching the outdated and dying exchanges that play 99% with satoshi dust amounts per trade, while the smart ones are seeing large volumes and better prices of $500, simply because people can get bitcoin from fiat alot easier privately instead of through the red tape of exchanges.

a prime example of what everyone should be doing is what happened in February 2014. once people realized they could not get FIAT out of MTGOX. yea it took them from December 2013 - February 2014 to realize it, but once they did the smart ones ignored mtgox's price and started to value bitcoins from other sources. even when mtgox sank to $100, no one gave a crap, as the other exchanges remained at 4x that value.

i cannot wait for the basement dweller coded exchanges to die off and the people to start to value bitcoin based on private trading rather then trying to peg the value of 13million+ coins based on movements of just a few thousand coins on an PHP exchange.

Could you please explain, what you mean by private trading? Do you mean e.g. LocalBitcoins?

localbitcoins
bitcoinOTC
private sites
other places that only whales (1000+btc) know, that wont be posted on public forums for noobs to invade

you will see that once public OTC's/ETF's are properly running, they will take over where basement dweller PHP exchanges left off.

Localbitcoins has its usual premium over the php exchanges, but I am not able to see any bids on bitcoinOTC or anywhere else for that matter that suggest that php exchanges are undervaluing BTC/USD.  Could you be more clear as to where to go to get the true value?  I think that would be extremely valuable information to this community, as the question has been asked a few times in this thread.

TLDR:  where does a noob get the true value of BTC/USD?  Buyers want to know.

[franky1]

everyone seems to misunderstand this graph..

it is to show percentages of adoption.. not population numbers.

lets say only 20 million people use bitcoin.
in the innovation stage (2.5%) =500,000
in the early adopter stage (13.5%) =2,700,000
in the early majority stage (34%) =6,800,000
in the late majority stage (34%) =6,800,000
in the laggards stage (16%) =3,200,000

this would total the 20million users. and would look like an S curve on a graph.. an S curve is a better example to use to show adoption.

as for the bases of noobs "true" value. the answer is BARTER. no its not a website, its not a ticker, its not a place you can goto. specifically its the opposite.

once sheeple stop fixing prices based on panic sales of an exchange that only moves 12k coins a day, and instead base their sell prices on their own costs and their own fair value. and how much the other person is willing to pay for your coins. you will have your own price valuation.

the places like localbitcoins otc private investment vessels are should NEVER be fixed to a single price based on another locations price. what there needs to be is 300 different prices and then a consensus of average value of the 13million coins in circulation based on that average.

EG ham burgers are not fixed based on the dollar price of mcdonalds in downtown new york. if you go to a mcdonalds in thailand and converted their prices into dollar it wont be the same. if you went to a mcdonalds in the UK, the price wont be the same. the difference between a mcdonalds hamburger in new york foodmall differs to that in a service stop mcdonalds at the side of a motorway/highway.

yet people pay it.

so people need to stop sheep following exchanges, as thats what happened when western exchanges that could not arbitrage china.. simply, for no reason but being sheep, followed prices down to $600 in january. and then when mtgox shut its bank account people sheep followed the price down to $450, before finally waking up.. if they did not wake up and continued to follow gox, bitcoin would be at $100 today.

so if bitcoin drops $10 on bitstamp.. and your on BTC-e. dont be a sheep and tank the price by $10 (same for vice versa).

my personal sources of price variety are from atleast 35 different locations of all varying amounts. but my previous post mentions atleast 4 of them, even if some of those are still sheep followers.

as for where i trade. well thats not in the list i gave before. and many whales along with myself are all still valuing bitcoin at $500+. and their is larger demand compared to PHP exchanges only fiddling about with 12k volume a day.

again. do not think that movements of thousands of coins should be a good source of valuing your coin or the whole 13mill+ coins. base your prices on your own costs and supplies. vs customers preferences and desire. use other prices only as a grey are not a strict price rule