*That* chart has made it all the way to the FT!

[sgbett]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/19/1976132/cult-markets-when-the-bubble-bursts/

... and they is calling for fear and capitulation!

I think they could be right, I don't think so but its hard to know what you really feel when you've been desensitised by the previous two bubble/recoveries. I have also said this before, but it really does feel like the low single digits after the ~$30 high.

I thought the latest sell off could have been that capitulation event, but i wonder if it really had enough impetus?... perhaps one more to come? I don't know.

For sure this is not advice to sell (for me nothing has changed in the value proposition of HODLing)

This post is just me thinking out loud and seeing what anyone else might be thinking. It's even nice to get feedback from the odd frothing troll, as good an indicator as any of what's probably not happening

I think we still bouncing around the bottom, building a base. I still think its telling that we are only ~66% off the all time high. For me this confirms the idea that BTC is building innate value as a medium of exchange in addition to its value derived from being speculative vehicle for traders looking to flip a quick profit.

If it was really the south sea oil tulip bubble, then the collapse would have been longer harder, and with very much less retained value at the end. More like a 95%+ crash back to sub $100 prices, certainly below the previous ATH. Yet, that did not happen.

Risto called the bottom as $340 in feb, we went up,we came back down. It feels like normal price action for bottom discovery when you strip away all the post-hoc reasoning and just take a longer term view of how something like this would probably behave in its inevitable rise. We still haven't really deviated from the long term exponential S curve that one would expect. We still appear to be in the early growth stages, and all the right things are still happening. When the public eye comes around the next time, it will discover that far from going away. BTC just carried on going from strength to strength whilst people's backs were turned. I think thats going to make people sit up and look.

They were pretty interested last time around and all we had was a shabby exchange, and very little regulatory oversight. This time around... and its coming... I wonder what people will make of it? Eventually all this smoke is going to give away the fire.

Its a tough wait, but I think its going to be worthwhile.

頑張る!

[Vindihaaret]

I dont hope they are right when they say:

* We’re going to stick our neck out at this stage and call this the end of Bitcoin.
The reason being, the positive-feedback loop forces which drove Bitcoin to $1124.76
have now become the same very same which will drive it down to the bottom. *

Not sure what they consider Bitcoin V.2.0, but i guess it includes blockchain in some way. Perhaps Bitcoin as it is is not the "next big thing" but jus a catalyst for things to come. No one knows.

I know Im still a strong believer in Bitcoin and its technology. And hopefully this is the bottom and prices stop decline.

[Torque]

Although the current market still looks a little bearish, I will say this:

You can't put much stock in a poorly written article written by a misinformed author on an obscure website (that hardly anyone reads) that sits behind a paywall.

[sgbett]

I dont hope they are right when they say:

* We’re going to stick our neck out at this stage and call this the end of Bitcoin.
The reason being, the positive-feedback loop forces which drove Bitcoin to $1124.76
have now become the same very same which will drive it down to the bottom. *

Not sure what they consider Bitcoin V.2.0, but i guess it includes blockchain in some way. Perhaps Bitcoin as it is is not the "next big thing" but jus a catalyst for things to come. No one knows.

I know Im still a strong believer in Bitcoin and its technology. And hopefully this is the bottom and prices stop decline.

I don't know if they are either,  but the fact that the FT of all people is saying that strikes me as a good sign that it's not going to happen Still there is always first time for the mainstream media to get it right.

Another contrarian indicator is that I am seriously considering swapping a few more quid for some magic electric beans!

[Torque]

I dont hope they are right when they say:

* We’re going to stick our neck out at this stage and call this the end of Bitcoin.
The reason being, the positive-feedback loop forces which drove Bitcoin to $1124.76
have now become the same very same which will drive it down to the bottom. *

Not sure what they consider Bitcoin V.2.0, but i guess it includes blockchain in some way. Perhaps Bitcoin as it is is not the "next big thing" but jus a catalyst for things to come. No one knows.

I know Im still a strong believer in Bitcoin and its technology. And hopefully this is the bottom and prices stop decline.

I don't know if they are either,  but the fact that the FT of all people is saying that strikes me as a good sign that it's not going to happen Still there is always first time for the mainstream media to get it right.

Another contrarian indicator is that I am seriously considering swapping a few more quid for some magic electric beans!

You also gotta remember, these were the same people touting MaxCoin as the "next big thing".  

[meanig]

The author Izabella Kaminska is a Bitcoin troll who's been writing garbage on the topic for a long time now. Her opinions on Bitcoin are totally discredited and she writes about the subject with a delusional confidence only matched Leah McGrath Goodman. You're better off reading r/buttcoin.

[inca]

The author Izabella Kaminska is a Bitcoin troll who's been writing garbage on the topic for a long time now. Her opinions on Bitcoin are totally discredited and she writes about the subject with a delusional confidence only matched Leah McGrath Goodman. You're better off reading r/buttcoin.

But but but she's an economist!?

Yep the bottom is surely close if the MSM are reporting the end of bitcoin again.

[Peter R]

I'm reading a great book called "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, which is all about our cognitive biases.  An important theme is WYSIATI (what you see is all there is), and there's copious volumes of research that prove how susceptible our brains are to this bias.  It's why last summer anyone who predicated $1200 a few months out was not taken seriously, and it's why people scoff at the idea that fiat money could lose its importance.  

The FT author sees a classic picture of the first portion of a bubble chart and, due to WYSIATI, her brain pattern-matches that to the classic "bubble chart" we've all seen a million times: her intuitive response is BUBBLE and this precludes her from even considering the many rational arguments against this being "the end" (the arguments simply don't exist to her because she is blinded by only what she does see).  

Rather than focussing on sentiment and on price, I think it's more useful to consider the infrastructure being built.  The most important of which are the fiat<-->bitcoin gateways.  There's now hundreds of bitcoin ATMS across the world with more rolling out each month, the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could soon be approved, and Circle should eventually allow people to instantly signup and purchase bitcoin with a credit card.  During the last growth spurt there was exactly 1 bitcoin ATM.  

This infrastructure won't precipitate another wave of bitcoin adoption, but it would certainly facilitate one should sentiment make a 180 deg turn.  And with the fiat gateways opened much wider than at any time in bitcoin's history, the next cycle could be epic.  

I always feel somewhat "dirty" talking about this because bitcoin has much nobler goals, but Bitcoin's killer app right now is that it appeals to people's lust for wealth.  Of course, the corollary to this is that it is also at the whim of people's fear of losing money (what we're seeing now).  But remember, the people most able to vote against bitcoin are those who are already participating (<0.1% of the world's population), yet the amount of people who could be seduced by the thought of easy money is a much larger percentage (some might argue 100%).

In conclusion, if every guy and girl at the gym, the pub, or the backyard BBQ can signup in minutes and purchase bitcoin instantly with his credit card, many will.  Once the infrastructure is in place, all that's required is ample media attention and a change in sentiment.

**Of course this doesn't mean we don't have a bumpy road ahead of us (or for that matter that we'll necessarily see another growth spurt).  We might still have to shatter the dreams of a few more recent speculators, and quell the ambition of a few more early whales.  

[vanobe]

In conclusion, if every guy and girl at the gym, the pub, or the backyard BBQ can signup in minutes and purchase bitcoin instantly with his credit card, many will.  Once the infrastructure is in place, all that's required is ample media attention and a change in sentiment.

The average newbie person probably finds it very hard to buy bitcoin right now. The average person would refuse to give passport, bank account, and bill scans to some exchange website. The fear of identity theft would be likely to put them off.

[Xer0]

“please register to read“

nope.

[piramida]

“please register to read“

nope.

This. Please post the silly chart here so we can make fun of it while recovering to 500, thanks

Or do you mean the classic bubble chart? Then don't post I can draw it in my sleep. We never ever in bitcoin history went below (or even close to) the price level where from the last rally had started, so this chart has not (yet?) been true ever. Not this time, too, even though it by accident had a double-top similar to the one on that chart.

As for the feelings, it feels now like sitting atop of a gold mine where some idiot is actively building a public toilet. You tell him this land is precious, but he just does not listen. Well duh, I'll just try to buy as much land as I can near that toilet.

[vanobe]

Someone posted a miniature of it here.

http://seriouslyfinance.com/author/izabella-kaminska/

Here's a link to the big version used in the article.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2014/09/Screen-Shot-2014-09-18-at-15.04.48.png



You can all make fun of it now.

Edit

Or do you mean the classic bubble chart? Then don't post I can draw it in my sleep.

Sorry, I posted it before I read this.

[sgbett]

Apologies, when i clicked through it wasn't paywalled, should have grabbed a screen shot :/ sorry

Essentially it was just a never before seen on btc (herp) troll post likening the BTC price chart, with *that* chart. I thought it was funny that it had gone all the way to the FT which is like the sheep investors mouthpiece on what to buy/sell after everyone else bought/sold it

[ErisDiscordia]

I'm reading a great book called "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, which is all about our cognitive biases.  An important theme is WYSIATI (what you see is all there is), and there's copious volumes of research that prove how susceptible our brains are to this bias.  It's why last summer anyone who predicated $1200 a few months out was not taken seriously, and it's why people scoff at the idea that fiat money could lose its importance.  

The FT author sees a classic picture of the first portion of a bubble chart and, due to WYSIATI, her brain pattern-matches that to the classic "bubble chart" we've all seen a million times: her intuitive response is BUBBLE and this precludes her from even considering the many rational arguments against this being "the end" (the arguments simply don't exist to her because she is blinded by only what she does see).  

Rather than focussing on sentiment and on price, I think it's more useful to consider the infrastructure being built.  The most important of which are the fiat<-->bitcoin gateways.  There's now hundreds of bitcoin ATMS across the world with more rolling out each month, the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could soon be approved, and Circle should eventually allow people to instantly signup and purchase bitcoin with a credit card.  During the last growth spurt there was exactly 1 bitcoin ATM.  

This infrastructure won't precipitate another wave of bitcoin adoption, but it would certainly facilitate one should sentiment make a 180 deg turn.  And with the fiat gateways opened much wider than at any time in bitcoin's history, the next cycle could be epic.  

I always feel somewhat "dirty" talking about this because bitcoin has much nobler goals, but Bitcoin's killer app right now is that it appeals to people's lust for wealth.  Of course, the corollary to this is that it is also at the whim of people's fear of losing money (what we're seeing now).  But remember, the people most able to vote against bitcoin are those who are already participating (<0.1% of the world's population), yet the amount of people who could be seduced by the thought of easy money is a much larger percentage (some might argue 100%).

In conclusion, if every guy and girl at the gym, the pub, or the backyard BBQ can signup in minutes and purchase bitcoin instantly with his credit card, many will.  Once the infrastructure is in place, all that's required is ample media attention and a change in sentiment.

**Of course this doesn't mean we don't have a bumpy road ahead of us (or for that matter that we'll necessarily see another growth spurt).  We might still have to shatter the dreams of a few more recent speculators, and quell the ambition of a few more early whales.  

Thank you for this perspective. It's easy to lose focus of the big picture thanks for reminding us

[Wekkel]

the next cycle could be epic.

Word.

[EuroTrash]

Rumour has it, Ms. Isabella Kaminska just deleted the article after the shoot up to 450.



A copy is available at http://pastebin.com/bx4WTCgt

EDIT: not that I'm interpreting this as a market sign in any way. Just exposing cowardice of the author.

[marvinrouge]

Rumour has it, Ms. Isabella Kaminska just deleted the article after the shoot up to 450.



A copy is available at http://pastebin.com/bx4WTCgt

EDIT: not that I'm interpreting this as a market sign in any way. Just exposing cowardice of the author.

   thanks

[vanobe]

The author Izabella Kaminska is a Bitcoin troll who's been writing garbage on the topic for a long time now. Her opinions on Bitcoin are totally discredited and she writes about the subject with a delusional confidence only matched Leah McGrath Goodman. You're better off reading r/buttcoin.

But but but she's an economist!?

But she must be right, she's an "expert".

[marvinrouge]

The author Izabella Kaminska is a Bitcoin troll who's been writing garbage on the topic for a long time now. Her opinions on Bitcoin are totally discredited and she writes about the subject with a delusional confidence only matched Leah McGrath Goodman. You're better off reading r/buttcoin.

But but but she's an economist!?

But she must be right, she's an "expert".

We’re going to stick our neck out at this stage and call this the end of Bitcoin.

[mmortal03]

Rumour has it, Ms. Isabella Kaminska just deleted the article after the shoot up to 450.



A copy is available at http://pastebin.com/bx4WTCgt

EDIT: not that I'm interpreting this as a market sign in any way. Just exposing cowardice of the author.

The article is still there.