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Author Topic: Informal guesses: How much fiat has been put into coins, net...  (Read 1449 times)
jakedeez
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September 24, 2014, 03:43:40 PM
 #1

I am working on a research paper, just for funzies, and I need to get a base line guess on how much money (read fiat) has been converted into bitcoins and altcoins, net.  It doesn't need to be scientific, or even accurate really - I just would like to hear what people think.


To be clear, this isn't money invested in mining, VC money in businesses, or trading volumes in daily trade... I am looking or a number, net number, or how much fiat has been put into coins, that is it.

Any guesses?

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franky1
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September 24, 2014, 04:04:53 PM
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I am working on a research paper, just for funzies, and I need to get a base line guess on how much money (read fiat) has been converted into bitcoins and altcoins, net.  It doesn't need to be scientific, or even accurate really - I just would like to hear what people think.


To be clear, this isn't money invested in mining, VC money in businesses, or trading volumes in daily trade... I am looking or a number, net number, or how much fiat has been put into coins, that is it.

Any guesses?

coins exist on a blockchain, they are money themselves. and you cant slide a $10 into the blockchain.. Cheesy

but you can put bank notes into exchanges to swap for bitcoins
but you can put bank notes into electricity companies to power mining rigs to obtain bitcoins
but you can put bank notes into businesses as a VC to obtain large amounts of bitcoin as your ROI.

so the statement saying you want to exclude mining/exchange/investing.. doesnt really leave move options left.

but if you really want some figures.
the 13+mill coin circulation holds a cap value based on probably only 20k coin movements a day. (so i dont consider the bitcoin fiat value market cap estimate as very accurate)

that being said with between 12k-50k coins moving through exchanges which over 4 years would equate to probably 50billion worth of FIAT moving between bank accounts.
then add on the private fund movements for bitcoin related stuff.,

you probably looking at in excess of 70billion dollars have moved between bank accounts due to bitcoin related activities... easily.

even if we used different measures.
say theres 2million people that have played with bitcoin. some throwing millions into it.. some throwing just $100 into it. lets say an average of $20k a year
2mill x 10,000=20billion.
lets say last year was a bit less and the year before that was a bit less again..

over 4 years your still going to surpass 50billion.

now another approach.
merchants. there are over 100k merchants right now. even if on average each merchant receives $1000 from bitcoin a week (overstock done $20k a week, small mom and pop stores might only do $20 a week)
, that 100mill a week or 5 a billion a year, which is going to be atleast $10-$20billion, just from merchant sales alone over the 4 years (taking into account slow growth in 2009-2014, thus not exactly $20billion ).

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September 24, 2014, 04:13:41 PM
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I'm not sure that what you are looking for is useful.

For example, suppose I bought 100 BTC back when they were $1. Then you would say that I converted $100. However, suppose I sold the 100 BTC for $400 each and immediately bought them back for $400 each. Then you would say that I converted $40,000, but in reality there is no difference.

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franky1
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September 24, 2014, 04:18:09 PM
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I'm not sure that what you are looking for is useful.

For example, suppose I bought 100 BTC back when they were $1. Then you would say that I converted $100. However, suppose I sold the 100 BTC for $400 each and immediately bought them back for $400 each. Then you would say that I converted $40,000, but in reality there is no difference.

if it was actual bank account movements. then it would be
$100+$40k+$40k = $80,100

but i agree, what specific measure is the OP looking for

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Don't take any information given on this forum on face value. Please do your own due diligence & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. If you wish to seek legal FACTUAL advice, then seek the guidance of a LEGAL specialist.
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September 24, 2014, 04:35:45 PM
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You guys are not understanding what I am looking for here.  If it's useful to you, really doesn't matter.  I don't care that the number that circulates.  What I mean is there is a total amount of money that households deposited on exchanges to buy bitcoins, and when someone sold them, someone else bought them - that means that if they paid more, more money went in, if they paid less, some money came out... Also local bitcoins, or whatever.

What I am looking for is the simple number, of fiat, converted to USD, that people have used to just buy bitcoin.  I've heard guesses ranging from 100 million to 8 billion.  The number doesn't need to be correct, but you can think about it like mutual funds.

In a given quarter money, overall, flows into our out of mutual funds net.  So like, sometimes 7 billion flows into mutual funds (say 11 billion in and 4 billion out) in a quarter.  Sometimes 3 billion flows out (say 5 billion in, 8 billion out).

I want guesses as to, what the net inflow of fiat, directly into coins is over the five years.

It doesn't need to be right - in fact, better then getting the exact number would be having a large number of guesses.

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September 24, 2014, 04:42:27 PM
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I keep track of the fiat total I've invested directly on coins, always subtracting from that total when I sell coins, adding again when rebuying, and I think that's the number you're getting at but for the whole userbase, right?
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September 24, 2014, 04:47:03 PM
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What I am looking for is the simple number, of fiat, converted to USD, that people have used to just buy bitcoin.  I've heard guesses ranging from 100 million to 8 billion.  The number doesn't need to be correct, but you can think about it like mutual funds.

If it doesn't has to be correct, why not simply use market capitalization in USD (number of coins in cirulation X market price)?
Even if part of that number is the result of direct purchases of goods with Bitcoin (without converting to fiat), the number will likely be higher by the time you publish your research... Wink

I think all other guesses can't be reliably verified to be any more correct.

ya.ya.yo!
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September 24, 2014, 04:55:28 PM
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What I am looking for is the simple number, of fiat, converted to USD, that people have used to just buy bitcoin.  I've heard guesses ranging from 100 million to 8 billion.  The number doesn't need to be correct, but you can think about it like mutual funds.

If it doesn't has to be correct, why not simply use market capitalization in USD (number of coins in cirulation X market price)?
Even if part of that number is the result of direct purchases of goods with Bitcoin (without converting to fiat), the number will likely be higher by the time you publish your research... Wink

I think all other guesses can't be reliably verified to be any more correct.

ya.ya.yo!

Because the market cap is clearly not even close.  Satoshi's coin never moved, but they are part of the cap.  I am certain that less then 8 billion dollars has been invested net, I just want to hear what people's guesses are.  The paper is about what people think, not the reality.


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September 24, 2014, 05:08:01 PM
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What I am looking for is the simple number, of fiat, converted to USD, that people have used to just buy bitcoin.  I've heard guesses ranging from 100 million to 8 billion.  The number doesn't need to be correct, but you can think about it like mutual funds.

If it doesn't has to be correct, why not simply use market capitalization in USD (number of coins in cirulation X market price)?
Even if part of that number is the result of direct purchases of goods with Bitcoin (without converting to fiat), the number will likely be higher by the time you publish your research... Wink

I think all other guesses can't be reliably verified to be any more correct.

ya.ya.yo!

Because the market cap is clearly not even close.  Satoshi's coin never moved, but they are part of the cap.  I am certain that less then 8 billion dollars has been invested net, I just want to hear what people's guesses are.  The paper is about what people think, not the reality.

Yes, but please consider that some people also bought at higher prices, but haven't sold their coins. This offsets for a good amount of the coins in possession of miners that never sold for fiat. I also think, that only very few of the early miners haven't sold at least part of their holdings.

So I still think market cap is the best guess. Even though you do not want to write about reality, please accept that I try to make guesses that aim at matching reality... Wink

ya.ya.yo!
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September 24, 2014, 05:59:22 PM
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What I am looking for is the simple number, of fiat, converted to USD, that people have used to just buy bitcoin.  I've heard guesses ranging from 100 million to 8 billion.  The number doesn't need to be correct, but you can think about it like mutual funds.

If it doesn't has to be correct, why not simply use market capitalization in USD (number of coins in cirulation X market price)?
Even if part of that number is the result of direct purchases of goods with Bitcoin (without converting to fiat), the number will likely be higher by the time you publish your research... Wink

I think all other guesses can't be reliably verified to be any more correct.

ya.ya.yo!

you cant just use the number of coins in circulation x market price.

as those coins may have swapped peoples hands 10 times in just a year.

for instance btc-e trades about 5 million coins. then last year mtgox was trading about 18million coins, bitstamp about 15million coins. coinbase, then add bitpay, cryptsy, cryptorush, mintpal and the other 15 crappy exchanges. your probably looking at 50 million coin movements WITHIN AN EXCHANGE.

which would equate to about $20billion ish

without knowing how many of those coin movements actually resulted in a bank deposit or a bank withdrawal, because most of the time the coins and dollar just sits in the account while people play around with SQL data base entries daytrading orders.

all that we can know for sure is that it is well OVER $20billion a year worth of coins is played around with and maybe over that. then as i said in my last post multiply that by the 4 years where volumes may have been less. your probably looking at 50billion just in exchange movements on sql databases.

but only the exchanges themselves would have the answer to how much physical money entered and left the bank accounts.

you might be looking at well over 100million coin movements where roughly 50-70billion is total bank account movements over 4 years of all bitcoin activity, once you include everything from exchanges to other swaps(merchant product sales, VC investment, private exchanges, localbitcoins, otc and other professional exchanges, advertising, paying wages, etc, etc, etc)

after all most of the exchanges day trade without bank movements, but private trades are more about direct bank transfer purchases, along with the other stuff i just wrote in brackets.

again to clarify
exchange internal movements 50-70billion
other swaps internal movement 30-50billion
=
exchange dollar transfer 20-30billion(actual bank account movement)
other swaps dollar transfer 30-40billion(actual bank account movement)

but all we can do is guess via limited information available
but i stand by my rough estimate of over $100billion internal transactions and atleast $50billion result of actual bank movements

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September 24, 2014, 09:14:41 PM
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So, it looks like if a person bought 1 BTC for $1 and sold it to another person for $100, then the value associated with that bitcoin is $100 for your purposes.

I think you can calculate a number by adding up the values of all unspent outputs at the time they were added to a block (including coinbase outputs, since they cost money to mine). Unfortunately, it will be skewed by people just moving bitcoins between addresses, but it is a step toward what you are looking for.

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September 25, 2014, 02:57:48 AM
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not sure what you are looking for.

But if I buy 100 BTC when it is $1 and sell it when it $10. what if i use those $900 to buy 100 BTC when it was $5? it has different price in different time.
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September 25, 2014, 03:04:59 AM
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Not as much money as people think any real buying pressure of a few million dollars would move the market so that shows you right there its not as big as people think it is.

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September 25, 2014, 06:14:12 AM
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Bitcoin could be bigger and stronger if it got more attention and more users obviously...
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September 25, 2014, 06:52:03 AM
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Bitcoin could be bigger and stronger if it got more attention and more users obviously...

the problem is not user adoption. the facts are MORE bitcoin purchases are done than many think. the problem is that people are basing bitcoins price by sheep following crappy exchanges that do little to no actual withdraws or deposits. (you know the ones, poloniex, mintpal, cryptsy, cryptorush, vircurex)
and they inturn sheep follow places like btc-e, which only does roughly 14k of coin movements a day (not 13million). and very few of these are actual transactions that lead to a deposit or withdrawal.

this is because of the AMLKYC crap that coinbase/bitstamp etc have which limit people to playing with under 30btc before flags start flying and banks getting informed.

please realise that bitcoin has more action OFF exchanges, compared to ON exchanges, not due to consumer adoption. but due to AMLKYC restrictions.
just look at the stats
https://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume (~$6m / $420 per coin = 14k coins)

but if you look at transaction volume
https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume (~750k coins)
or more accurately
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume (~120k coins)

so everyone is basing prices based on movements of just 14k coins where as they are not including measure of money movements from localbitcoins or bitcoin-otc or the ROI that VC's get from throwing FIAT at an enterprise and wishing for btc at certain rates in return.

when people stop being sheep and stop following prices of crappy small restricted exchanges. and base bitcoin on how much they bought their bitcoin for +x profit. or based on cost of mining their coin + x profit.

sheeple should NEVER sell at a loss, and should never let 5th parties dictate their prices.

by 5th party i mean not the person you are trading with. not an average of prices on the platform you are using, not a crappy estimate of a few small exchanges added together. but where the 5th party is another exchange you are not arbitraging against directly.. simply because it doesnt affect you personally.

sheeple need to stop panicking over prices that do not affect them personally(other exchanges such as in china), because the end result is that it will affect them personally.
a great example of when "some" sheeple woke up is when people started to ignore mtgox price in february, where peoples personal estimates and resistance points remained at $450, whilst mtgox tanked to $100, again because people realised that it wont affect them personally/directly(because people could not deposit/withdraw)

summerising my rant.
user adoption is not the problem. its the businesses around bitcoin that are hindering whales to invest publicly / easily. thus making it harder for places like 'bitcoin average' to accurately measure a more truer market cap value.

once more suitable markets open that get audited regularly and are transparent. then whales would use them and answers to not only a better price bitcoin average, but also the FIAT movements of the trades (where most are done currently in private) can also be answered.

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September 25, 2014, 01:53:35 PM
 #16

Holy cow - this is so far out of hand.  Listen, I am writing a paper about people's assumptions about bitcoin.  This is just a simple question, and being right or calculations do not matter.  I am looking, just to see numbers.  If people wouldn't mind, please just call out a number, it:

150 million
3 billion
2 billion
600 million

ect.

The number I am asking you to guess is, how much money has been transferred from bank accounts to exchanges, or cash given to local traders for coins.  If someone bought 100 coins for $1 and sold them for $1,000 then the answer is $100.  If they then took the money out, and later bought 100 coins for $400 I would not be interested in the money they put back in.  I just mean, virgin money, into the system.  If you want to make it complicated and explain your reasoning fine - put it at the end of the description of your thinking.  Please however, realize, I am looking for "from the hip" quick guesses that don't involve too much thinking.  That is the focus of this small paragraph of what I am writing, just a quick number... like the first number that comes into your head.  Kind of like, you say the first word that comes to your mind when I say a word:

Hat...

Head!

First word. 

Money into bitcoin...

$623,253,111.44

That is all I am looking for.


Thanks,
Jake

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September 25, 2014, 01:57:11 PM
 #17

1000000000....

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September 27, 2014, 07:24:09 PM
 #18

I am working on a research paper, just for funzies, and I need to get a base line guess on how much money (read fiat) has been converted into bitcoins and altcoins, net.  It doesn't need to be scientific, or even accurate really - I just would like to hear what people think.


To be clear, this isn't money invested in mining, VC money in businesses, or trading volumes in daily trade... I am looking or a number, net number, or how much fiat has been put into coins, that is it.

Any guesses?

coins exist on a blockchain, they are money themselves. and you cant slide a $10 into the blockchain.. Cheesy

but you can put bank notes into exchanges to swap for bitcoins
but you can put bank notes into electricity companies to power mining rigs to obtain bitcoins
but you can put bank notes into businesses as a VC to obtain large amounts of bitcoin as your ROI.

so the statement saying you want to exclude mining/exchange/investing.. doesnt really leave move options left.

but if you really want some figures.
the 13+mill coin circulation holds a cap value based on probably only 20k coin movements a day. (so i dont consider the bitcoin fiat value market cap estimate as very accurate)

that being said with between 12k-50k coins moving through exchanges which over 4 years would equate to probably 50billion worth of FIAT moving between bank accounts.
then add on the private fund movements for bitcoin related stuff.,

you probably looking at in excess of 70billion dollars have moved between bank accounts due to bitcoin related activities... easily.

even if we used different measures.
say theres 2million people that have played with bitcoin. some throwing millions into it.. some throwing just $100 into it. lets say an average of $20k a year
2mill x 10,000=20billion.
lets say last year was a bit less and the year before that was a bit less again..

over 4 years your still going to surpass 50billion.

now another approach.
merchants. there are over 100k merchants right now. even if on average each merchant receives $1000 from bitcoin a week (overstock done $20k a week, small mom and pop stores might only do $20 a week)
, that 100mill a week or 5 a billion a year, which is going to be atleast $10-$20billion, just from merchant sales alone over the 4 years (taking into account slow growth in 2009-2014, thus not exactly $20billion ).

Me thinks that your numbers are VASTLY inflated.
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September 28, 2014, 01:41:31 AM
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The answer to your question is $0.00.

Anytime that someone uses fiat to buy bitcoin someone else receives fiat for selling bitcoin in the exact same amount.

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October 01, 2014, 02:53:20 PM
 #20

The answer to your question is $0.00.

Anytime that someone uses fiat to buy bitcoin someone else receives fiat for selling bitcoin in the exact same amount.

Yes, but my question was, how much fiat was paid into the early miners ect...

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