Do you honestly think Bitcoin's price will have another ATH (all time high)?

[Dafar]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014 (lol at 2014 = "the year of bitcoin")... a lot of people have lost confidence, and I would even say that the general reputation of bitcoin is still negative thanks to Mt Gox.

But there are some people, like me, who still think we are on track for greatness... but we are on a bumpy road that will last longer than most expected, maybe even a few years.

The optimism was much higher at the end of 2013, for this same poll we would have probably seen the majority pick option #1, but lets see what the consensus is now

[1714940731]

1714940731

[anu]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014 (lol at 2014 = "the year of bitcoin")... a lot of people have lost confidence, and I would even say that the general reputation of bitcoin is still negative thanks to Mt Gox.

But there are some people, like me, who still think we are on track for greatness... but we are on a bumpy road that will last longer than most expected, maybe even a few years.

The optimism was much higher at the end of 2013, for this same poll we would have probably seen the majority pick option #1, but lets see what the consensus is now

I think it'll just be a replay of the story after the bubble of 2011, more or less. It'll take a while, maybe to the next halving of rewards, during which time Bitcoins spreads in use but price remains relatively stable, maybe going up to 700 or so. Then we'll see the next surge.

[kodtycoon]

i think we could breach the ath by years end.

[gentlemand]

Yes. The ecosystem is moving out of the hands of silly sausages into some serious players. We'll see that pay off eventually but it might take a lengthy while yet. I'm not in any hurry myself.

[Wekkel]

Having experienced the $32 to $2 decline, nothing scares me anymore.

Unless better technology is invented, this thing won't be stopped.

[tabnloz]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014 (lol at 2014 = "the year of bitcoin")... a lot of people have lost confidence, and I would even say that the general reputation of bitcoin is still negative thanks to Mt Gox.

But there are some people, like me, who still think we are on track for greatness... but we are on a bumpy road that will last longer than most expected, maybe even a few years.

The optimism was much higher at the end of 2013, for this same poll we would have probably seen the majority pick option #1, but lets see what the consensus is now

Yes.

I think we will see even more merchant adoption, a clear choice between closed/open source (ala Apple v Android) and then discounts for using BTC.

It's already becoming a market battlefield - see the timing of the Braintree / PayPal announcement. This will continue at a rapid pace as companies position themselves for the payment revolution. Adopting something as new and trendy as Bitcoin is branding and no one wants to fall behind.

Then, when it becomes noticeably cheaper for Average Joe to use compared to other ways to pay, I think it's buckle up time.

[Dafar]

Having experienced the $32 to $2 decline, nothing scares me anymore.

Unless better technology is invented, this thing won't be stopped.

If only I knew about this back then... you must be rich 

[Torque]

I guess theoretically it could happen at any point in time.  But I really think a number of factors HAVE to play into such an event:

1.  Some period of time has to past from last ATH.  Usually at a minimum 9-12 months, as market recovers and resets to equilibrium.

2.  Reward halving near or has past

3.  Mining cost dips below exchange rate, and continues to stay there for a long while.

5.  As buying slows down, the exchange price slides to a much undervalued level compared to continued exponentially growing public awareness, network growth, and transaction growth (All of 2012 was a prime example of this).

6.  Other equities and commodities markets suddenly become less attractive

7.  Potentially a black swan event (like Cyprus) or stock market crash

All of the above are merely factors, but ultimately it's whale investors that sense that the market is ready based on the above and start priming it.

It's now clear that the current exchange rate is trending towards an undervalued point.  And I think it could stay there for quite some time (which is good if you are looking to accumulate more, bad if not).  But the longer it stays there (similar to 2012), the more explosive the upswing will be.  We could see the upswing sometime next year, or all of 2015 could be much like 2012.  Who knows.  Only time will tell.

At least sometime by 2016?  If bitcoin market history is an indicator, the odds say 95% yes.

[RodeoX]

Having experienced the $32 to $2 decline, nothing scares me anymore.

Unless better technology is invented, this thing won't be stopped.

Same here. And that was not the only extreme crash we have seen. Each time people loudly and confidently pronounced bitcoin dead. when OI hear that I know it means the person does not understand bitcoin. They treat it like a stock or a bond. Bitcoin is nothing like that and does not require any threshold value to operate.

Is it still the fastest, safest, and cheapest way to send money? Yes? Then we are all good.

[Supercrypt]

yes, i m confident that it will happen
bitcoin will break current high price and make a new all time high

[noobtrader]

 

yes im waiting for 1000.000.000,00 usd per bitcoin soon so i can buuy tohse lamborgini and exotic villa at bahama and drink pina colada with girls lot of them...

yesssss
 

[Patel]

yes im waiting for 1000.000.000,00 usd per bitcoin soon so i can buuy tohse lamborgini and exotic villa at bahama and drink pina colada with girls lot of them...

yesssss
 

nice vision 

[Dafar]

Having experienced the $32 to $2 decline, nothing scares me anymore.

Unless better technology is invented, this thing won't be stopped.

Same here. And that was not the only extreme crash we have seen. Each time people loudly and confidently pronounced bitcoin dead. when OI hear that I know it means the person does not understand bitcoin. They treat it like a stock or a bond. Bitcoin is nothing like that and does not require any threshold value to operate.

Is it still the fastest, safest, and cheapest way to send money? Yes? Then we are all good.

I'm curious about that, because I hear the contrary too. I've heard some businesses and institutions won't consider working with bitcoin until it's above $2-5K/btc, what is all that about?

[GSI_Kristjan]

BTC will be like a digital gold in distant future. Its will have very high value, but it will be rare. Few other "coins" will be better suited for every-day payment instrument.

[noobtrader]

yes im waiting for 1000.000.000,00 usd per bitcoin soon so i can buuy tohse lamborgini and exotic villa at bahama and drink pina colada with girls lot of them...

yesssss
 

nice vision 

yes thank you... i know im handsome...
 

[Wekkel]

Higher prices could mean better price stability. It is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin, if lasting, could achieve reserve status with large payment processors doing off chain transactions and other flexible coins like Peercoin supporting day-to-day payments.

For PayPal, this digital thing will lower their cut but could enlarge their playing field tremendously. Basically, banks are slowly losing the payment networks. I have no idea whether this segment of banking currently is actually profitable for banks.

[Wilhelm]

yes im waiting for 1000.000.000,00 usd per bitcoin soon so i can buuy tohse lamborgini and exotic villa at bahama and drink pina colada with girls lot of them...

yesssss
 

Stop thinking small again *slap*

Buy an atol in the Bahamas (or have one made) and land there on your own runway with your own plane
Or go there in your little yacht

[piramida]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014 (lol at 2014 = "the year of bitcoin")... a lot of people have lost confidence, and I would even say that the general reputation of bitcoin is still negative thanks to Mt Gox.

2014 definitely *is* the year of bitcoin. Much more positive developments have already happened in this year than in all the previous years combined! And getting rid of MtGox was one of the positive things that happened.

As for the price, which is depressed now, yeah right, 2014 is not (yet) the year of a huge bitcoin rally, so what? Still is an awesome year with three more months to go.

[Dafar]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014 (lol at 2014 = "the year of bitcoin")... a lot of people have lost confidence, and I would even say that the general reputation of bitcoin is still negative thanks to Mt Gox.

2014 definitely *is* the year of bitcoin. Much more positive developments have already happened in this year than in all the previous years combined! And getting rid of MtGox was one of the positive things that happened.

As for the price, which is depressed now, yeah right, 2014 is not (yet) the year of a huge bitcoin rally, so what? Still is an awesome year with three more months to go.

I think price matters more than you make it sound. It gives people confidence to buy and/or invest, it puts bitcoin in a positive light and it makes corporations more willing to work with it. When people look at bitcoin right now, the first thing they say is "isn't it that currency that lost over 70% of its value?" You may be one of those people who can say "i don't care about price, I got in at $1 so I'm still up hehe" but let's think about other people too. They care about their money and they won't get involved with something that will make them lose money.

And I can argue that the MtGox fiasco put a shadow on pretty much all positive developments that happened all year. We've had some big merchant adoption this year, sure, and the PayPal news recently is about the best thing to happen this year. But in 2013 we went form not knowing whether the US gov will ban bitcoin to the US accepting bitcoin as a legitimate currency and even embracing it in the Sennate hearings... that is good news, and it helped that we had China on our side to move the price above $1000 for the first time. I would call 2013 the year of bitcoin, not 2014.

[RodeoX]

Having experienced the $32 to $2 decline, nothing scares me anymore.

Unless better technology is invented, this thing won't be stopped.

Same here. And that was not the only extreme crash we have seen. Each time people loudly and confidently pronounced bitcoin dead. when OI hear that I know it means the person does not understand bitcoin. They treat it like a stock or a bond. Bitcoin is nothing like that and does not require any threshold value to operate.

Is it still the fastest, safest, and cheapest way to send money? Yes? Then we are all good.

I'm curious about that, because I hear the contrary too. I've heard some businesses and institutions won't consider working with bitcoin until it's above $2-5K/btc, what is all that about?

I'm not sure why they would wait for a certain price, unless they are trying to corelate that with how broadly BTC is accepted? It would be a mistake if that were the case. For example, far less places took bitcoin when it was valued by the market at $1000.
If their paradigm is one of stock investing then maybe they are confused. If a stock offering falls to a low price then the capitol the issuer was counting on is not present and the company could go bankrupt. At that point the stock value could fall to zero and become worthless. Bitcoin does not need your money and it woked just fine when bitcoins were $0.50. It also worked fine at $100, $35, or $823. As long as me and one other person is using it, it can at least opperate.

[Dafar]

I'm not sure why they would wait for a certain price, unless they are trying to corelate that with how broadly BTC is accepted? It would be a mistake if that were the case. For example, far less places took bitcoin when it was valued by the market at $1000.
If their paradigm is one of stock investing then maybe they are confused. If a stock offering falls to a low price then the capitol the issuer was counting on is not present and the company could go bankrupt. At that point the stock value could fall to zero and become worthless. Bitcoin does not need your money and it woked just fine when bitcoins were $0.50. It also worked fine at $100, $35, or $823. As long as me and one other person is using it, it can at least opperate.

The reasoning behind it was technical, I'll try to dig up what I've read about how and why higher priced bitcoin was more useful... I'm still not clear myself

[labsbitforum]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

Better to rely on your own critical thinking than to follow the herd.

[piramida]

I think price matters more than you make it sound. It gives people confidence to buy and/or invest, it puts bitcoin in a positive light and it makes corporations more willing to work with it. When people look at bitcoin right now, the first thing they say is "isn't it that currency that lost over 70% of its value?" You may be one of those people who can say "i don't care about price, I got in at $1 so I'm still up hehe" but let's think about other people too. They care about their money and they won't get involved with something that will make them lose money.

I can't judge what people say when they first look at bitcoin, but to me it looks like "isn't it the currency that grew 10,000% and then lost 90% then grew another 1000% then lost 70%? nice volatile opportunity to make lots of money". Everybody has their own reasoning, you can't just sum it up for everyone because it will be untrue. Bitcoin is, was, and will for a long time be extremely volatile. Whether or not people have balls to invest into it during it's low season just determines whether or not these people are able to make profits on the volatility.

But from a completely different point of view, we see large amount of businesses and business investments which happily develop infrastructure *not caring a single bit about what the price currently is*. And that's what matters, not how many new short-term profit seekers we can attract. They will run on the next dip, anyway. Infrastructure will stay. The "common people" will go where the infrastructure is the most convenient and use that.

[Dafar]

^ I see what you're saying, thanks!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

Better to rely on your own critical thinking than to follow the herd.

I'm not using this for any decision making, I just wanted to see how confident people still are. Of course this is bitcointalk.org, where you have a mix of people who are very knowledgeable on bitcoin to those blindly-optimistic, so I take the results with a grain of salt. 86% confidence (current poll results) is much higher than I anticipated though

[noobtrader]

yes im waiting for 1000.000.000,00 usd per bitcoin soon so i can buuy tohse lamborgini and exotic villa at bahama and drink pina colada with girls lot of them...

yesssss
 

Stop thinking small again *slap*

Buy an atol in the Bahamas (or have one made) and land there on your own runway with your own plane
Or go there in your little yacht

man...
i figure out that if 1 btc become 1000.000.000,00 usd then the price of lambo and exotic villa will reach sky high price due to many bitcoiner will buy them by then.

then again i dont buy airplane bcos i hate altitude and i dont buy yacth because there is shark in the water man... and i dont get it why we ban chinese eating shark fin and let the japanese eat whale, why we hate whale so much ? whale is our friend....

i say let them eat shark fin and save the whales....


 

[Dafar]

^ posts like this make me think we are going nowhere but down, please stop

[bustrod]

^ posts like this make me think we are going nowhere but down, please stop

aw come now, don't hush his advocating for such a cause as saving the whales.  

Personally, I wouldn't call this a shit year for bitcoin. Whether you've seen the year as a success or a failure is only a measure of your expectations against reality, but given this is in the speculation sub. with a perspective based on price, I do see your point.

But from a completely different point of view, we see large amount of businesses and business investments which happily develop infrastructure *not caring a single bit about what the price currently is*. And that's what matters, not how many new short-term profit seekers we can attract. They will run on the next dip, anyway. Infrastructure will stay. The "common people" will go where the infrastructure is the most convenient and use that.

This pretty much sums up my opinion. The catalyst for the previous meteoric rise was popularity fueling speculative investing. The foundation for such prices was not there, and when speculators looked around the room to only see more speculators, the bottom dropped out. That is why the plethora of good news we've had this year hasn't impacted price in an equally staggering way -reluctance.

What's exciting then to consider is that $1200 was attained on almost entirely hot air. What is going to happen when the infrastructure beneath bitcoin is further developed? When B2B transactions are facilitated in btc? When couch-potato joe discovers how easy, and cost efficient using btc can be? When the infernal USD<>BTC loop is narrowed and bitcoin becomes an independent ecosystem?

Edit: Forgot to give my answer to the ATH question, if it wasn't already clear. Yes, I expect many new ATHs. Only a matter of time...

[xDan]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

[manselr]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing.

[maker88]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing.

unless those people have 100 coins, dreams of retiring solely on your profit from bitcoin is pretty delusional. i expect in 10 years or so we could get to around 30-50k in a perfect storm scenario, but even then thats only like a couple million dollars.which after 10 years of inflation will be not a lot of money to retire on, especially if you're retiring early(you have to live off the savings for much longer)

[Bulletin]

It will get ATH and very soon.

[bitleif]

I'm just trying to gauge people's confidence level after the SHIT year we have had in 2014

Speculators and leeches have had a "shit" year. Everybody else is just fine.

[azguard]

I dont think that this will be ATH year for BTC.
More likely next or even 2016.

Except if there were some price pump otherwise no way for this to happen, ay least not his year.

[djangocoin]

Yes. The ecosystem is moving out of the hands of silly sausages into some serious players. We'll see that pay off eventually but it might take a lengthy while yet. I'm not in any hurry myself.

Define a lengthy while?

[Dafar]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing.

In 10 years, 1000 will be worth 400 or less given the dollar's inflation rate... so that would be a total failure

[Torque]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing.

In 10 years, 1000 will be worth 400 or less given the dollar's inflation rate... so that would be a total failure

When bitcoin is rising people think that we'll hit $10K within 6 months.  When bitcoin is slumping they think it will take 10 years to revisit the previous ATH.

Good lord.   

[Dafar]

100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.

The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.

If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing.

In 10 years, 1000 will be worth 400 or less given the dollar's inflation rate... so that would be a total failure

When bitcoin is rising people think that we'll hit $10K within 6 months.  When bitcoin is slumping they think it will take 10 years to revisit the previous ATH.

Good lord.   

Yup... highly emotional investment

[xDan]

When bitcoin is rising people think that we'll hit $10K within 6 months.  When bitcoin is slumping they think it will take 10 years to revisit the previous ATH.

Good lord.  

Yup... highly emotional investment

Note, I said pessimistically, and also 3 - 10 years, implying nothing other than I think it could, in the very worst case, be a few years.

And when a new ATH is forming, who's to say it won't be another bubble shooting past $1000 right up to $10,000.

My optimistic view is $100K in < 5 years

My realistic view is I have no goddamn idea at all (except that it will exceed ATH [in 2014 value] at some point).