Adam's BitMovements

[adamstgBit]

BitMovements

adam rambling on and on about bitcoin price action for your entertainment

[adamstgBit]

The Bear Market Explained

It has been nearly a year since bitcoins ATH over 1000$, and ever since i've been hearing bitcoiners say " I don't understand why its going down, the news is so good ", i've said this myself... But it simply not true! there has been much bad news this year, many many poeple got GOXXED in the worst possible way, and if you heard about bitcoin for the first this year chances are you heard bitcoins CEO lost all the Fiat and BTC and the party is over. Also China, the main reason for bitcoin reaching such heights, aggressively "banned bitcoin". And there is more bad news! Bit License aims to make bitcoin unusable in NY ( at least thats how some poeple see it ) . and altho we don't like to think about such things, there has been a few sites getting hacked or mysteriously vanishing with all the users funds. This is HORRIBLE PR, and has all but demolished investor confidence, and damaged bitcoin's image too newbies and general public. for us bitcoiners we understand the "honey badger-ness" of bitcoin and so we shrug off these newsz as growing pains, and irrelevant in the long term, which is true, but for an outsider looking in it doesn't look good.

[adamstgBit]

400 Dollars, The Fight for a Fair Price.

All the bad news, doesn't mean bitcoin is over, and if its not over, then what is a "fair price", Who knows? But its clear the market wants to stay above 400. Why shouldn't it, there are some very encouraging and positive new developments happening in bitcoin all the time. Widely used by common folk or not, bitcoin is useful and remains full of potential. That potential is slowly being realized, and with that more and more users are using it as currency and actively participating in the economy ( without immediately converting to fiat, am i one of these people ).

400$ is obviously an important price for bitcoin, it was seen as unbelievably cheap coins when the "bubble popped", and has acted as support ever since. We have once again tested the 400$ support level, and once again managed to stay above it ( thanks to paypal's news ?  or whales pushing buttons? BOTH! ), However the downtrend persists and bears will be bears, It is my prediction that in the short term we may see a rally into the upper 400's and even lower 500's, but that would not invalidate the down trend, and bears will have an uncontrollable urge to STOMP on this rally once again, probably crushing price below 400 once again. I recommend holding fiat on the exchange, and patiently waiting to show your support sub 400$

Recent News: Very Bullish
Elliott-Wave-TA: Bearish
General sentiment: Bearish-Confusion & Bullish-Stubbornness
Adam's prediction: Short term rally targeting upper 400's followed by bear raids back down to lower 400's
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 375 ( I dont expect price to stay there for long, should it get there at all, place bids! )

[adamstgBit]

Recommending a buy at 399

I was expecting a bit of a rally, after that spike to 450 was corrected, which seemed to be what we were headed for last night, when price was holding the line around 410, that didn't materialize, sellers are too damn impatient and reckless, whos to say how low they can bring us, but to me it looks like now is not a bad time to put up a fight. Not telling you to go all in here, never go all in, this is merely a good place to place a bet saying i think 400 will hold. speculation is the name of the game, sellers don't seem to be doing that, they are simply selling recklessly, IMO.

[adamstgBit]

The dump tards are literally trying to kill any momentum
Its as if they want to sell for the lowest price possible
WTF is wrong with these poeple!?

have you ever heard that one before? lol i have, lets talk about this most mistaken view...

So speculators are leaving with huge bags of fiat, this is actually very bullish long term! They think they we're so smart selling and walking away with big gains, but thats just not true, the only reason they can do that is because bitcoin is working great and it grew and grew and then exploded and it continues to grow. The market went to 1000$ specifically to get this guys to sell... They will be back, and they are likely to dump fiat in the same reckless manner they dumped their bitcoins.

The market is not at all confident, there is much talk about the market being manipulated, poeple saying something better will come along and displace bitcoin, etc. etc.  this is a normal reaction when exiting, weather they bought at 25$ each and made huge profits, or bought 800$+ and then cashed out low, they think they know better and think everyone is dumb for not doing like them. they don't see what we see, they don't understand bitcoin, if they did they would never of cashed out... IMHO watching these poeple leave means bitcoin is undervalued right now, and its likely to continue being undervalued as all these poeple finally leave...

On the way up everyone says "the only way is up! there's no more coins for sale, its going to the moon!", on the way down everyone always says "its never going to stop falling, everyone is cashing out, this is the end!", the longer the trend persists the more powerful this thinking becomes.  idk why its like this, I find myself feeling the same way at times... its just human nature i guess. A good speculator / investor / stackers, wtv, understands all this and takes advantage of these mistaken views. I still think we'll see a rally targeting high 400's  b4 we see 375, but this is just a gut feeling, who knows, and who really cares, point is be ready to take advantage of the dump trads devaluing our coins.

no change in current prediction.
Recent News: Very Bullish
Elliott-Wave-TA: Bearish
General sentiment: Bearish-Confusion & Bullish-Stubbornness
Adam's prediction: Short term rally targeting upper 400's followed by bear raids back down to lower 400's
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 375 ( I dont expect price to stay there for long, should it get there at all, place bids! )

[adamstgBit]

Moving Cheap Coin Target Down

So the rally I was expecting never materialized, this indicates to me we are in worse shape than I thought,  and so I am moving my cheap coin target accordingly, now targeting 366.

The fight for 400 rages on, its impossible to say whether or not we will manage to definitely break below 400 and hit a new level of low, and so I still recommend a buy at 399, we could see volume pick up a bit, start trading in the 408-412 level, then break out into high 400's based on "400 was the bottom" sentiment.  In any case buying into the 399 support level doesn't seem like a bad move mid & long term, even if there is a reasonable chance of getting cheaper coins short term. Do it slowly and methodically, you want to throw in a small bet every time price drops to this 399 level.

Recent News: Very Bullish
Elliott-Wave-TA: Bearish
General sentiment: Bearish-Confusion & Bullish-Stubbornness
Adam's prediction: Definitive break below 400 will encourage sell-offs bring us to the cheap coin target.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 366

[adamstgBit]

Le Panic Seller

Despite a valiant effort from the market to hodl 400, the selling pressure was too much, we cracked below 395 on high volume and were unable to recover before the mass waves of panic sell-offs occurred.

There was much panic, the speculation sub-forum was buzzing with talk of doom and gloom... some bulls preaching buy & hold amidst the panic, but it was mostly bears posting sinking ships saying things like "I told you so, buttcoin is going to 10$". The worst part in all this is that the panic failed to reach my cheap coin target of 366, instead the low was 368.9 missing my target by $2.90, 0.7%. such a shame... oh well. Now I am setting a new cheap coin target, I believe the panic is over, and i believe these 375 / coin are cheap, and i believe we'll be recovering, so i'm setting it at 369.99.


Recent News: Very Bullish
Elliott-Wave-TA: Bullish
General sentiment: Bearish-Overconfidence & Bullish-Stubbornness
Adam's prediction: Recovery in progress.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 369.99

[adamstgBit]

Faster and Faster Down The Rabbit Hole

I believe the trend will finally revers here and we will have a nice long lasting bull run. *fingers crossed*

Price had been going down slowly and flash crashing to a new low for months, This weekend was the most powerful wave of this outrageous reckless selling, and I believe it was the last one. This is always how these trends end, they start off slow, build up speed, and then overshoot with one last massive splash, it was the same story with the run up last year, faster and faster recklessly heading toward the inevitable.

It sure looks like the bears exhausted themselves last weekend. Dumping 1000's of coins and hitting bottom, market bounces back quickly, dumping 1000's more coins and hitting bottom again and again, after all that action the bear just put up a 30K ask wall at 300$, its was as if he just gave up and showed us his hand, and said " you want it? then buy it! ". The market took up his offer and bought up the 30K coins with relative ease it took only 6 hours for what must be one of (if not THE) most expensive ask wall bitcoin has ever seen.

I am calling for a trend reversal here, and the charts agree with me, high volume, flash recovery, and still sitting at the lowest price we've seen for almost a year. this is it, these low prices aren't likely to last long, but i don't see us immediately running back to 600$+, here's what i see happening next; first market will want to snap back to ~350 ( I expect to reach 350+ by the time you read this  ) then we will start a very slow grind up, we will undoubtedly see some sell offs at that point, if we see market eat up these sell offs, bounce back, and go back to the slow and steady grind up, this will confirm the trend has reversed ( watch for it ). If this new trend can hold for sometime ( ~2weeks ) then its off to the races again, the trend will pick up speed, some random good news here and there, it will start to snowball, the media makes a bit of splash about it BAM bubble is now IMMINENT, we manage to buy it up to 4K$ / bitcoin before a new wave of newbie's fiat hit the exchanges  

 

there's also a good chance the up trend will not materialize right here, and we may head lower again before we start a new bull run, but to me all the pieces fit, time is now!

[adamstgBit]

First Confirmation, She's Rolling Over!

It sure is bullish in here tonight!

The trend reversal is playing out nicely, we've just popped over the second resistance level @350 ( first was @330 )  and it appears to be heading higher, the way things are looking right now we could get as high 380 as early tomorrow! who knows! this is bitcoin! My gut feeling is that we will settle at 350 for a long while, waiting there for sell offs, once the market has absorbed a few selloffs at this level, it will feel the need to move higher, targeting 380 as the next pit stop, BUT we've been hit will several bullish news's today, most notably; Andreas was kicking some senate butt in canada earlier, it was streamed live for all to see, i missed it, but poeple have reported good things:  

Canada, "No regulations for bitcoin, and will revisit it in 5 years".
Sounds good to me.

tuned in on the them saying Andreas had lived up to his Bitcoin guru status.

Is this what pushed price over the 350 dollar mark for good? or were we well on our way to break 350 anyway? I think we were well on our way, the trend turning is a much bigger motivator to push that buy button then any news. The positive ruling in canada will definitely have bullish consequences, to me it means the long term possibility of 10,000$ BTC or even 100,000$ BTC is just a little bit more achievable thanks to canada giving bitcoins a thumbs up. This is very good stuff, and could very well accelerate the climb to 380.

Hot off the press news: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM
Adam's prediction: Trend Reversal just starting, leveling off at 350 for now, heading to 380 as early as tomorrow night.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 339  I am Hoping for one or two sells off to make us hit this target and then pretty much immediately bounce back to 350, giving us another confirmation that the trend has turned.

[adamstgBit]

Taking Back 400

when i woke up this morning i was like     

Price is breaking these resistance lines fast and furious on high volume, clearly a good sign. Market wants to get back to 400, FAST, and it nearly made it! I think we will be above 400 tomorrow or by next monday. The pull back we had today produced even more high volume candles and we appear to be bouncing at initial support on high volume! this is amazing, I am amazed! no joke, this market is WILD. We are now heading toward the resistance line again @~375, this line was previously support, the amount of volume it took to break a support line that has become resistance is called overhead resistance, the overhead resistance put in on the 29th looks formidable, but since we have already broken the line on high volume, I would suspect it won't take much more to break over once again and then take back 400!

A good entry point would be 350, I believe market will want to retest the support we just bounce off of, and the way things are looking for this trend reversal, I wouldn't be surprised to see us paint a double bottom at 350 or even put in a higher low on the next wave down ( If there even is a next wave down! THIS IS BITCOIN! ) and then get back to moving up Up UP.

Adam's prediction: We will be breaking resistance @375 shortly ( matter of hours or days ), and take back 400.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 350  -  355

[adamstgBit]

Down is Up

Bearish sentiment seems strong these days. Focused on short term selling pressures, some poeple are convinced bitcoin will retest the high 200's. I'm not so sure. Such an event would clearly be one hell of an opportunity, and IMO it would be very foolish to sell here, because, fact is, low 300's is probably as good as it gets... You should be accumulating slowly while these low prices last, if an obvious all in play pops up during your slow accumulation go for it! don't bank on it happening...

There are many reasons to believe price will be make a new ATH sooner or later,  i'm not going to list all my reasons, but my fav. reason is GOLD. Gold has value for a lot of the same reasons bitcoin has value, and looking at its market cap, its easy to understand how cheap bitcoin really is ATM. In many ways Bitcoin is superior to gold, so its not hard to imagine bitcoin taking a small % of gold's speculative value over the next few years, even 1-2% would imply like 5-10K$/BTC, and thats just one aspect to the bitcoin... But people haven't been focusing on the fundamentals they have been worrying about the unfavorable regulations, the ETF smilingly taking forever to be approved, the FBI's auctions effect on the market,  the bottom falling out... And on top of that, Xmas is coming and with it a new year, and now we hear about TAX LOSS SELLING. Its a minefield of reasons to sell out there, down is up, time is now.

Adam's prediction: short term selling pressures will pass, price starts to rise again, sentiment improves, and things get pretty wild pretty fast.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 329.99

[adamstgBit]

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

It's been 6 months since i last updated BitMovements, and a lot has happened in that time, generally positive news with the some random hacks and thefts. yet price has gone down nearly 35% in that time. why is this? fuck man IDK why it's irrational!

Given bitcoin's potential and the fact that it seems to be lining itself up to fulfill that potential ( big merchants getting onboard, GBTC, etc... ) doesn't at all justify a 3 Billion dollar market cap. Its clear bitcoin isn't "hot stuff" anymore, no one is interested in what you can do with a bitcoin, because buying some feels like throwing money out the window. How long is this price going to last? and will price go lower still? ask yourself this, is price reflecting the low sentiment? can sentiment get much worst?

I think, we'll be stuck below 300 for a while longer, but eventually we are going to see this thing turn around despite poeple having low confidence and then sentiment is going to turn green.

Adam's prediction: low volume volatile seemly going nowhere fast.
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 234.99

[adamstgBit]

Stabilizing on the Low

Its no secret that bitcoin appears to be stabilizing, volume isn't what it use to be, price swings are small and often corrected within a few hours or days. Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing after nearly 2 years of Intense volatility / and excessive Dumpage. low 200's could very well be the fucking Bottom of this horrific bear bubble.

In the past few weeks we have yet again crashed below my "Cheap Coin Target", with the room buzzing with words like Block Size Limit, and Scalability, Centralization, Fear Uncertainty and Doubt is still very much alive in the weak minded, And now that support line (235) is sure to be a resistance line. Looking at the overall market sociology and price, we can only conclude that this is a excellent time to buy a boat load of bitcoin! The thing is for over a year mostly all bullish news has been ignored, and any little pieces of FUD was immediately felt on the market with dumpage and subsequent panic selling, I find it highly likely that price has been manipulated this to this low level for accumulation purposes. And now here we are Improving the core protocol to increase the maximum number of transactions pre second, because the current limit will obviously be exceeded by the network shortly ( we are already seeing full blocks pop up often ), and some how market finds a way to make this a bearish event... in all likelihood the limit will be raised to 8MB, SideChain will emerge and give rest to the scalability problem, and the sun will shine on Bitcoin once again! The silver bullet to my bullish prediction is the fact the the drops in price are obviously getting smaller and smaller, I believe it's only a matter of time before the market realize that there aren't any more cheap coins to be swindled from weak hands. Don't be swindled on the coming mini rallies, HODL for the long term.

Adam's prediction: High Volume High Movement Up!
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 226.5

[adamstgBit]

Knocking on Resistance

The previous cheap coin target wasn't reached, we appear to now be setting up for a nice little break out, targeting 235.xx possibly reaching as high as 240, this is the "High Volume High Movement Up!" i've been looking for. If you're bearish, or feel daring, you could try your hand at a short here, a short at 231.00 targeting 226.xx with a tight stop loss at 232.00, might be a fun play. I wouldn't risk it... just HODL and read this thread periodically to validate your bullishness.

Adam's prediction: High Volume High Movement Up!
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 226.5

[adamstgBit]

The Next 24 Hours are Critical

no time to explain buy Buy BUY!!!!!!!!!! lol, seriously this could go either way, but a fall back to the 230 support seems pointless as the inevitable is inevitably going to happen (>32,000$ <2 years), we have a bullish looking flagpole and there's very little time left until it breaks, i think its only a matter of time till <300$ prices are a thing of the past, it feels like the next couple moves will be up and then market will wait for dumpage @ >300$ before really kicking off the gr8 never ending bull market. Its not a time to be squeamish, price is low, support is hodling, the coins are Scarce, Durable, Portable, Divisible, Fungible, Impossible to counterfeit, Easy to keep safe, and Increasing Useful[/u].


Adam's prediction: KaBoom  >260$ <48hours
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 241

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin finds a New Beginning

We put in a bottom in feb, and now the bear market down trend line appears to have been broken! and the Greek debt crisis all but guarantees the start of a new bull market. I hear some talk on the forum "if they vote Yes (stay with EUR)  it will go down", "No and we go up Up UP!". Weather greeks start using EUR or GRK to buy up bitcoin the end result is the same. The damage is done, poeple are scared and confused as to exactly what will happen with there money, and now some are starting to talk about bitcoin. When the Greek banksters lift the capital controls ( limiting them to 60EUR a day! , not being able to use their bank card to make online purchases , etc...) i think we could see a very impressive move by the Greeks pushing bitcoin well over 300. This will be from only the very first wave of Greeks buying into bitcoin. It can take along time to go from hearing about bitcoin, learning about it, deciding to put some money into it, registering online, making the transfer and actually hitting that buy button. I would expect buying support coming from this Greek crisis for like a year, so this is an excellent time to start a new trend, an uptrend.

Above is my prediction for this month. the rise we are seeing now isn't greeks buying, it's a speculative move in anticipating of Greeks buying, i fully expect the market to underestimate the power and duration of buying pressure the Greek debt crisis will bring to the market. I think its a safe bet to think 300 will be reached before the end of the month, and i wouldn't expect it to stop there.

Adam's prediction:  >300 in <4 weeks  &  >32,000$ in <2 years
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 247

[adamstgBit]

Steadily Climbing, Cool as a Cucumber

It's been a few weeks since my last update, and i'm glad to see that my previous prediction worked out.  That 310 local top was not a hard call, based on all the overhead resistance placed there. That's not to say anyone could or would have predicted 310, based on my bullish view that we will shortly be trending above 300, and say goodbye to the 200's once and for all, I placed the target higher than the previous high of 300 ~4 months ago. needless to say when we start seeing higher highs, this is bullish.

The last week and a half of trading has been interesting, especially the last hour, (this is why i decided to make an update). we saw a nice correction from lower high of 299, bottomed at 277 and then painted a rising wedge with a flat resistance line ( a bearish pattern ) the breakdown of this wedge of easy to spot before hand. I contemplated writing a little update when i saw the pattern on the charts, but i like to keep my update positive with bullish call. What wasn't obvious to predicted was the strong support we are seeing now as market slips a few dollar lower, look at that volume on the last hour, look at the size of that candles tail, and only 4$ below the resistance line. this is bullish! this is great too see, i like it, and so i write about it    take a deep breath, look around, enjoy the moment, because soon we will  say goodbye to 200's for good!

Adam's prediction:   >290$  in ~3days
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 281

[adamstgBit]

Climbing Out of Hell

It's been about a month since I last did an update, I was very bullish last time, my predictions did not pan out, and we dived lower. After i posted my update(Aug 6), all hope of breaking 290 and testing 300's again colsopaled in on itself, as the block size limit debate became louder and louder.

Support for BitcoinXT was mounting, while there was still and clearly always would be much support for BitcoinCore, this made the idea of a nasty fork with something like 40/60 for XT Vs Core a credible  threat! needless to say the market responded to this FUD very negatively, and to put it over the top, a lot of bitcoin businesses stopped servicing NY customers because of the new license requirements. We found bottom at ~200, bitstamp refused to go lower then ~200 as bitfinex liquidated long positions like there was no tomorrow hitting a new low of ~162. Since then we have been trending in a fairly tight range of 222-240 with high volume. I believe we are about to break out of this range, and yes I think Up! bitcoinXT is dead, Core devs are making progress with bitcoin's scalability, and Core plans to increase the block limit in due time. They haven't said anything official yet, but they have made comments suggesting that an increase of some type is necessary, they just want to add in some major improvements that will gr8ly minimize the larger blocks effect on bandwidth usage and stuff. We'll pull through this thing one way or another, and on the other side everyone will be like "well that wasn't so bad". Today there is still much Fear, Uncertainty about bitcoin future, and Doubt of bitcoins ability to pull through, today is a good day to speculate.

Adam's prediction:   >260$  Soon!
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 229

[adamstgBit]

Bulls on the run

We've have recently see a definite break out of the 220-240 range, a good target for a local top is 260, from there I see a very steep "crash" to 250-240 maybe going as low as 230 for a few mins, from there i'd expect market to keep choo chooing along at +1.00% a day. an important event to look forward to is the FBI's final auction, I expect market to be pushing 300 by then and wouldn't be surprised to hear the coins went for 5-10% above market. this are the last coin stach big money can buy, it would be foolish for market NOT to hit ~300 on the day of the auction. trying to sell the 360 resistance and buy back @240 is risky this one obvious technical swing i'd try to avoid, we are just one juicy piece of news away from 280's IMO. a better strategy would be to sell the news, aka sell on the day of the auction. 

Adam's prediction:   >260$  Very Soon!
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 251

[adamstgBit]

Correction Imminent

OK, bitcoin has had a change of pace the past few weeks, we've been going up! a few weeks ago a saw this move coming, i speculated it would "top out" at 260 and have a sharp correction, only to continue going up consistently after word. well that didn't happen, still 260 was a key number in this bull run, it's basically the point where bulls broke away from the slow and steady climb and started a more aggressive climb.


As it turns out this was a great move, we are now well past 260, with support at 274 mounting. so whats next? well I don't have a magic ball but i do have an ass and i can pull predictions out of it so here gose... I think we've "topped out" for now, there is lots of resistance up ahead and market will want to consolidate before moving any higher, eventually we'll break above 300 but for the next few weeks i don't see it happening,
at best we'll briefly go above 300 maybe even see a blow off top at 350 but that will be short lived, and fiercely corrected
most likely 2 weeks of consolidation 305-280 trading range
at worst we'll be testing 260 support in the next few days with a good old fashioned dumping.
in anycase, we will eventually break past 300 at which point i expect the spread to widen and price to be more volatile,  a good place to trade, it's going to be hard to lose money past 300, weather you buy or sell, i think all you'd have to do is HOLD that trade and you will eventually be in profit.


Adam's prediction:   <280$  soon
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 274