A perma-bull's take on this situation

[mano21]

I am and forever will be long term bullish on Bitcoin.

However, I think it is pretty clear right now that there is ZERO confidence in the markets.

It is pathetic that we cannot even stabilize above $430 after what happened the other day.

Many weak hands are scared and leaving the market.

Scared money doesn't make money, so please let me have more of your cheap coins

I think we will see $375 and stay around 4xx for a long time though before anything jumps off again.

[CryptoCarmen]

I think we will see $375 and stay around 4xx for a long time though before anything jumps off again.

That is quite possible scenario

[SilentJohn]

I am and forever will be long term bullish on Bitcoin.

However, I think it is pretty clear right now that there is ZERO confidence in the markets.

It is pathetic that we cannot even stabilize above $430 after what happened the other day.

Many weak hands are scared and leaving the market.

Scared money doesn't make money, so please let me have more of your cheap coins

I think we will see $375 and stay around 4xx for a long time though before anything jumps off again.

I think that it's reasonable given the scope of integration... if we were looking at announcements for bitcoin wallets and full integration into Ebay, that would have been a much different situation.

[Schickeria]

I think you selected a wrong thread title. As you write you are a long term bull (long term holder), not a permabull. A permabull is something stupid and irrational. They deny obviously bear markets and are getting overexcited on even very tiny bounces. It's something emotional and very unreasonable. Out of fairness I will admit that they may have some positive impact to Bitcoin as they form a strong community around it.

But your interpretation of the current market situation same as your outlook is far too reasonable to call yourself a permabull  

[inca]

Every thread like this brings the end of this bear market closer. I think we are at an interesting inflection. 30 minutes of heavy volume and the price rallied 10%. The price may fall further, but the major move of this decline is likely behind us. For all the book talking about lack of demand on the exchanges the risk/reward ratio has shifted perceptibly away from the short side. One or two more unexpected surges on positive news and none in their right mind will short bitcoin..

[sinner]

i'm a perma bull as well, but based on some of the TA (masterluc, Ryan, DanV) i think we're going to 280-290 over next 2-3 months before starting the next big bull trend.  i think that trend could see 2015 looking similar to 2012, and the next block party coinciding with a big move, possibly parabolic.

[mano21]

I think you selected a wrong thread title. As you write you are a long term bull (long term holder), not a permabull. A permabull is something stupid and irrational. They deny obviously bear markets and are getting overexcited on even very tiny bounces. It's something emotional and very unreasonable. Out of fairness I will admit that they may have some positive impact to Bitcoin as they form a strong community around it.

But your interpretation of the current market situation same as your outlook is far too reasonable to call yourself a permabull  

This is a good point. I am a long term holder indeed.

But I even agree with what was said above that we might even see prices sub 3xx.

We are at a crossroads now boys.

Uncharted waters.

Let's see what happens in Q4.

[ssmc2]

I think one thing we can all agree on is that when the next surge does start, it will be swift and it will be violent.

[ThatDGuy]

I think one thing we can all agree on is that when the next surge does start, it will be swift and it will be violent.

Very much so.  Can't wait to see where the next one ends up.

[TheJuice]

This is what always happens prior to a huge bull run. If we look back, before nearly every large run up (maybe except 2011 since that was the first true run) there was a long slide. Long time holders pulled money out to the sidelines. However, given most people who have bought bitcoin are believers this money is waiting to move back in.

What does that mean? Instead of all bitcoin holders being 100% invested (which is what happens at a bubble/peak) we are probably around 50% invested. Once we start to move up that money will move back in. Once it starts moving we get anotehr snow ball effect and the moon.

This may takes a year. But I am confident we will see new ATH by the next split.

[OgNasty]

As a fellow perma-bull myself, I think the recent price lagging can all be explained by the Chinese (miners and manufacturers).  I believe that they are comfortable mining at a razor thin profit margin in order to get $.  When it was just more developed countries mining for the most part, everyone felt they should become millionaires for running a miner.  I think the Chinese are happy making a few extra cents per day where some of us want dollars.  Eventually, the difficulty will catch up to where even they aren't satisfied with their returns, and we will see the mother of all bubbles as they dump miners and take positions as Bitcoin holders instead of selling for an immediate tiny gain.  I don't think we're in the, "but it's different this time" stage yet.

[exocytosis]

We need to get to sub $10 to shake out all the weak hands.

According to my analysis, the next bull market will start in April 2017. That's the start of the mainstream phase.

[inca]

We need to get to sub $10 to shake out all the weak hands.

According to my analysis, the next bull market will start in April 2017. That's the start of the mainstream phase.

Good luck with that.

[mano21]

We need to get to sub $10 to shake out all the weak hands.

According to my analysis, the next bull market will start in April 2017. That's the start of the mainstream phase.

2015 possilbly. 2016 worst case scenario.

I don't think it'll take till 2017.

[exocytosis]

We need to get to sub $10 to shake out all the weak hands.

According to my analysis, the next bull market will start in April 2017. That's the start of the mainstream phase.

Good luck with that.

Thank you, sir.

[smalltimer]

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption. He is probably mining himself the shit out of it and dumping as fast as he can to this day.

Once the panic is on it's over.

[inca]

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.

Once the panic is on it's over.

Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?

[smalltimer]

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.

Once the panic is on it's over.

Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?

are you happy with 10% inflation? Do we need that? Even the dollar can hold value better.

Bitcoin is not ment to be adopted. It's ment for miners to cash out on the noobs.

It was the first experiment. Today we are able to strike a better balance between interest of adopters/investors and miners than bitcoin did. Look how insane that armsrace was. There was far too much money in mining.

[kokojie]

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.

Once the panic is on it's over.

Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?

are you happy with 10% inflation? Do we need that? Even the dollar can hold value better.

Bitcoin is not ment to be adopted. It's ment for miners to cash out on the noobs.

The inflation is NOT the problem, the inflow of capital due to increased adoption can easily take care of that. The problem is still the PoW mining expense, $500M per year!! the inflow of capital has trouble keeping up with THAT.

[inca]

everyone who wanted it has it already. The permabulls keep holding and they ran out of ammo since they were calling the bottom wrong too often already. No new money coming in because nobody buys into these charts. Well, too bad, too sad.
Satoshi should have known better than forcing 10% inflation on us almost a decade into adoption.

Once the panic is on it's over.

Let me guess, you have a different coin to suggest?

are you happy with 10% inflation? Do we need that?

It wont be that high for long. Come the next halving it will..er halve. Whether i am happy about it is irrelevent. The coins are being distributed as per the algorithm and the really high inflation of bitcoin is behind us.

A much better question is whether a centralized mining race is good for bitcoin in the longer term.