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ofirbeigel (OP)
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September 26, 2014, 12:12:33 PM |
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Hey guys, I've been running a little experiment on my blog trying to predict Bitcoin's price in 2015 through the use of crowd wisdom. The basic idea is that if you get enough people from different demographics to guess something the average result is as good as an expert's advice. I'd appreciate anyone who cares to join, It takes only 10 seconds. Thanks. |
99Bitcoins - We translate Bitcoin into plain English. Bitrated user: ofir.
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Wekkel
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Activity: 3108
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yes
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September 26, 2014, 01:49:43 PM |
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Nice initiative. I hope a lot of people give it a fair try.
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BitCoinNutJob
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Merit: 1000
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September 26, 2014, 02:15:00 PM |
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Doesnt it depend on the cross section you interview in the first place? there are some videos on coin telegraph youtube channel where all the bitcoiners in the industry predict price points for certain dates, pretty cool stuff. Everyone who holds BTC says high anyone without says low or dead  make sure you get various sources of traffic imo. |
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ofirbeigel (OP)
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September 26, 2014, 02:16:58 PM |
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Doesnt it depend on the cross section you interview in the first place? there are some videos on coin telegraph youtube channel where all the bitcoiners in the industry predict price points for certain dates, pretty cool stuff. Everyone who holds BTC says high anyone without says low or dead make sure you get various sources of traffic imo. I guess you're right about the amount of "nay sayers" being low in this group. Any way you can post a link to those videos you've talked about ? |
99Bitcoins - We translate Bitcoin into plain English. Bitrated user: ofir.
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JustAnotherSheep
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September 27, 2014, 09:30:51 AM |
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A counter-indicator, interesting.
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Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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Skoupi
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Activity: 252
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Skoupi the Great
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September 27, 2014, 09:45:24 AM |
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The basic idea is that if you get enough people from different demographics to guess something the average result is as good as an expert's advice.
Crowd wisdom might be a good indicator for estimating the outcome of an election but it has little to no value for super complicated topics like asset pricing... Gl though... |
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DeadCoin
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★ Investor | Trader | Promoter
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September 27, 2014, 09:49:04 AM |
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Crowd wisdom is an oxymoron.
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bitebits
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.
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September 27, 2014, 10:04:29 AM |
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Nice initiative! Small spelling error btw:
What will be Bitocin's price on March 21st 2015 ? (Answer is US$) *
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- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett - Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero. |
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ofirbeigel (OP)
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September 27, 2014, 12:15:14 PM |
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Nice initiative! Small spelling error btw:
What will be Bitocin's price on March 21st 2015 ? (Answer is US$) *
Thanks, fixed it |
99Bitcoins - We translate Bitcoin into plain English. Bitrated user: ofir.
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exocytosis
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September 27, 2014, 12:20:06 PM |
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I answered $150.
Probably too bullish though.
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Wandererfromthenorth
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September 27, 2014, 12:22:36 PM |
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Definitely an interesting experiment.
But as other have already pointed out, try to get as many different people as you can in your sample.
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dynamox
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September 27, 2014, 02:14:46 PM |
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I will participate on this with my prediction, even tho i dont believe in "crowd wisdom" so to speak.
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ofirbeigel (OP)
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September 28, 2014, 07:46:30 AM |
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This is pretty awesome, we got almost 1000 responses!!! Thanks everyone  |
99Bitcoins - We translate Bitcoin into plain English. Bitrated user: ofir.
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Grand_Voyageur
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September 28, 2014, 07:52:55 AM |
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The basic idea is that if you get enough people from different demographics to guess something the average result is as good as an expert's advice.
Crowd wisdom might be a good indicator for estimating the outcome of an election but it has little to no value for super complicated topics like asset pricing... Gl though...  In fact he should interview only skilled people in trading with balances in black to receive predictions worth something!  |
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DeadCoin
Sr. Member
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Activity: 1246
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★ Investor | Trader | Promoter
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September 28, 2014, 09:18:57 AM |
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So far average is 3500, and median 1200. You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120. |
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Nrcewker
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September 28, 2014, 10:01:25 AM |
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I don't believe any predictions any more!
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PenAndPaper
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September 28, 2014, 10:07:33 AM |
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I don't believe any predictions any more!
...said someone in 2013 when the price plummeted from $250 to $50  |
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yokosan
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September 28, 2014, 10:33:39 AM |
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Wisdom of the crowds has already been done as the current price is a reflection of what people think it will be worth in the future minus risk.
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LiteCoinUser84
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September 28, 2014, 12:44:44 PM |
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So far average is 3500, and median 1200. You can already tell this has failed. Very unlikely it'll be above $500. I voted $120. $120 seems more ridiculous than the median of $1200 in my neutral opinion. I don't hold large amounts of coin and I don't have huge amount of buy orders or sell orders. I'm just pointing out that you should caveat what you say... |
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Cluster2k
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September 28, 2014, 01:36:34 PM |
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No one really knows what the price of bitcoins will be in 2015. Did anyone predict bitcoin going from $10 to $1200 within 12 months? Wild stabs in the dark are fine (bitcoin will be $100k in 2020, there, I said it) but if there was no action taken to leverage that prediction (and put money on the line) then it's just useless speculation.
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