Bitcoin Forum
December 03, 2016, 04:57:45 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: How Stable is the value of Bitcoin?  (Read 1772 times)
Cyanide
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 6


View Profile
May 06, 2012, 08:57:14 PM
 #1

Will it fluctuate dramatically, or is it expected to not flux much over time?
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480741065
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480741065

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480741065
Reply with quote  #2

1480741065
Report to moderator
matthewh3
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372



View Profile WWW
May 06, 2012, 09:04:38 PM
 #2

The price of bitcoins has been very volatile until about the last eight to twelve weeks where it has seemed to stabilise.  Will it stay stable that is a good question but I think the current trend should continue for some time now minus any major events in the bitcoin world happening (like the block reward half'ing in December)

David_Benz
Donator
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56

you got hacked bitch!


View Profile
May 06, 2012, 09:16:53 PM
 #3

Been pretty steady at 5 for the entire year so far pretty much

I am the Bitcoinica Hacker.
Kluge
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218


Michael, send me some coins before I hitman you


View Profile
May 06, 2012, 09:24:33 PM
 #4

A couple weeks ago, blockchain.info had an extended outage, GLBSE went down for a while, MtGox announced they weren't doing wires for a week, and there was a massive Silk Road scam. With all that, not much happened with the price. Does that predict the future? Maybe, to some debatable degree, but it's simply impossible to know.


All that matters is what people with money do, and perhaps that's increasingly not speculators. If Yankee decides to buy 50k coins for a float in a new venture and he keeps it to himself, the price will swing up. Trends might be able to predict what other speculators will likely do after Yankee's buy-in to a degree, but they can't predict Yankee buying 50k coins for undisclosed business reasons. They can't predict the effects of Bitcoin Magazine arriving at folks' houses, they can't predict future hacks on major BTC infrastructure, they can't predict people selling off their BTC to buy an island on a whim.

Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
paraipan
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


Firstbits: 1pirata


View Profile WWW
May 06, 2012, 09:37:51 PM
 #5

A couple weeks ago, blockchain.info had an extended outage, GLBSE went down for a while, MtGox announced they weren't doing wires for a week, and there was a massive Silk Road scam. Not much happened. Does that predict the future? Maybe, to some debatable degree, but it's simply impossible to know.


All that matters is what people with money do, and perhaps that's increasingly not speculators. If Yankee decides to buy 50k coins for a float in a new venture and he keeps it to himself, the price will swing up. Trends might be able to predict what other speculators will likely do after Yankee's buy-in to a degree, but they can't predict Yankee buying 50k coins for undisclosed business reasons. They can't predict the effects of Bitcoin Magazine arriving at folks' houses, they can't predict future hacks on major BTC infrastructure, they can't predict people selling off their BTC to buy an island on a whim.

^ nice TL;DR of the last events  Roll Eyes

BTCitcoin: An Idea Worth Saving - Q&A with bitcoins on rugatu.com - Check my rep
Cyanide
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 6


View Profile
May 07, 2012, 02:12:55 AM
 #6

A couple weeks ago, blockchain.info had an extended outage, GLBSE went down for a while, MtGox announced they weren't doing wires for a week, and there was a massive Silk Road scam. With all that, not much happened with the price. Does that predict the future? Maybe, to some debatable degree, but it's simply impossible to know.


All that matters is what people with money do, and perhaps that's increasingly not speculators. If Yankee decides to buy 50k coins for a float in a new venture and he keeps it to himself, the price will swing up. Trends might be able to predict what other speculators will likely do after Yankee's buy-in to a degree, but they can't predict Yankee buying 50k coins for undisclosed business reasons. They can't predict the effects of Bitcoin Magazine arriving at folks' houses, they can't predict future hacks on major BTC infrastructure, they can't predict people selling off their BTC to buy an island on a whim.

Thanks
Oinsane1
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42



View Profile
May 07, 2012, 02:19:59 AM
 #7

Not stable at all.. though it is more stable than it used to be
enmaku
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 742



View Profile WWW
May 07, 2012, 02:27:16 AM
 #8

like the block reward half'ing in December

Miner's revenue seems to have stabilized around 25% so with the block reward halving in December one of two things will have to happen to maintain that stability: the price doubles or the difficulty halves (or some combination of the twi). While it's likely that the decreased daily supply (from ~7200 to ~3600 BTC) would increase value somewhat (assuming the demand stays the same) the ~3600 BTC influx that is removed from the block reward halving is a small fraction of daily trade volume, so my money is on difficulty halving as the decreased operating margin pushes less efficient miners out of the game.

Still, I'm interested to see what an effective halving of the inflation rate does to BTC's price point. Whether it's good or bad it will at least be interesting  Grin

the joint
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792



View Profile
May 07, 2012, 02:37:49 AM
 #9

Aligning with what enmaku stated, here is my prediction:


1)  First few weeks after reward halving --->  No significant changes
2)  Next few weeks --->  Slowly, inefficient miners begin to drop out as they see the price isn't rapidly soaring.
3)  Months later, the price begins to rise slowly and some miners hop back in. 

My reasoning:  After the reward change, I think a lot of miners will continue to mine in anticipation of a value hike.  I think everyone will be more or less waiting to see what happens.  But, I don't believe the price will jump drastically and hold because even though the rate of supply will be cut in half, the total supply will not be cut in half.  As a result, some miners will drop out (but I don't think 50% will).   But, over time, the effects of the decreased supply rate will accumulate and the price will slowly climb.  As this happens, more miners will hop back in since the profit margin will increase again.

Dr.Steve
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 53


My invisible friend can beat your invisible friend


View Profile
May 07, 2012, 04:00:13 AM
 #10

I've watched the exchanges for many months. There are occasional daily swings, but it seems stable at around $5/btc. It did plummet when TradeHill went dark, but overall, pretty steady.

I'm not sure what the cost of mining is per BTC. Seems to depend on the electric costs.
mollison
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 157



View Profile
May 07, 2012, 05:12:15 AM
 #11

I'm not sure what the cost of mining is per BTC. Seems to depend on the electric costs.

Here is a site to calculate the profitability of mining.

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/

Maybe you know about this already... but maybe not everyone does.  Grin
J.Socal
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 469



View Profile
May 07, 2012, 08:08:08 AM
 #12

Whats stopping a country that wants to mine with nuclear power?
Tuxavant
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756


Bitcoin Mayor of Las Vegas


View Profile WWW
May 07, 2012, 12:11:15 PM
 #13

Electrons don't SHA256 themselves. They need a butt load of processors too.

Generation Bitcoin | G+ | FB | Bitcoins In Vegas | CoinBus.com | TOR Exit Operator 1MVTPATVCKBMfALRHJsXpHfKJu7GyL7nAc
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!