Ready to admit bitcoin is a failure?

[Q7]

I would still say it's very hard to predict what is going to happen 5 or 6 months down the road even for a short period. Anything can still happen. The price might just collapse into the dumpster or very well shoot beyond expectation leaving everybody crying out in awe "i should have bought more". Anyway lets see what is going to happen before making a conclusion right now when things are still moving very very fast

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[cyberpinoy]

We should stop measuring success or failure in terms of the market price.  

You could not be MORE wrong!!

At the moment Bitcoin as a whole is failing.

Bitcoin  as financial transaction is not failing at all. It is actually thriving, it does exactly what it is supposed to do. It is a wonderful adaptation to our current transaction processes. If more and more people keep adopting its usage, it can only grow stronger.

The value of bitcoin however is failing drastically.

Why is the value so important? and how does this effect the overall success of bitcoin?

Very simple

Miners need a good value to make mining profitable, ( unless you know an electric company who accepts bitcoins as payments they need cash to pay the bills)  if the value of the coin becomes so low it is no longer profitable to mine, BOOM instant failure, no miners means no transactions getting processed , if no one is processing transaction the coin fails.

So you see the value is just as important as the structure behind the transaction protocol

I would still say it's very hard to predict what is going to happen 5 or 6 months down the road even for a short period. Anything can still happen. The price might just collapse into the dumpster or very well shoot beyond expectation leaving everybody crying out in awe "i should have bought more". Anyway lets see what is going to happen before making a conclusion right now when things are still moving very very fast

Allow me to help you, by the end of December price will be below 100 dollars USD a coin, ( because of the bi-weekly merchant dumps that have been happening over the past 5+ months) at this point a your transactions will become much slower as a lot of the miners will have turned their machines off. This price will attract some of the idiot high dollar investors and by February we will be back close to 300 dollars again if we are lucky, at which time miners will begin to turn their machines back on.

Unfortunately this process will not fair well for bitcoin, if transaction times become longer it will begin to deter new users from keeping the coin after adopting it. It will give the coin a bad reputation and all this work people are putting in to getting the coin adopted by more merchants will be futile. This is not 5 years ago, Bitcoin is no longer in its infancy, this is the determining stages of the coins future. Difficulty is to high to play the same games the developers have played the past 5 years, if they dont get their heads out of their asses we are all going to lose.

Lets put more concentration on creating a real demand for the coin and not worry about more coin dumping merchants picking it up right now. If there is a true honest demand for the coin people are going to buy it faster than if they want a computer from dell who takes both cash or BTC. merchants do not secure its success, creating transactions can only go so far. having something no one else has and having to use bitcoins to get it, now thats a demand that makes people have to get bitcoins

[lucky88888]

Just wondering how many people are ready to admit that it isn't gonna have main stream adoption?

I want to talk about why and what can be changed to fix bitcoin, but first we have to admit there is a problem.   

bitcoin isn't a failure, it was an idea which will lead to decentralization from government control.
right now the only problem with bitcoin is the PoW mining, this needs to be changed or altered so no entity can have control over the mining.

even if bitcoin fails, another 2.0 will take its place, so its still a success if the idea worked.

[GenTarkin]

OP: Ready to admit you obviously dont understand Bitcoin at all?!
The problem doesnt lie w/ Bitcoin, it lies with; human nature & how weve all been brainwashed by current monetary systems that have been in place for a hundred years.

Just because its price is going lower due to pure speculation driving it, does not mean its a failure.
Last I checked the blockchain is ticking away, it doesnt care about price or speculation ... it just fucking works, BEAUTIFULLY. So nothing w/ Bitcoin has failed.

Bitcoin still functions as to move value around the internet(around the world) at blistering speeds weve never seen in any currency(completely decentralized), no matter its price point. Well, long as it aint $0.0000000000000...
Its true price point will be determined by how many people actually want to use it for doing just that.



Wait till key world monetary systems start crumbling.... people might actually wake the fuck up and realize theres been something better for years and use it.

[young3dvard]

Very simple

Miners need a good value to make mining profitable, ( unless you know an electric company who accepts bitcoins as payments they need cash to pay the bills)  if the value of the coin becomes so low it is no longer profitable to mine, BOOM instant failure, no miners means no transactions getting processed , if no one is processing transaction the coin fails.

So you see the value is just as important as the structure behind the transaction protocol

There are variety of asic miners mining all with different cost of mining - so thinking all of sudden at least half of them turn off the miner is pretty unrealistic. Unless the price crash to single digit this year it is safe to assume no retarging difficulty decrease will be over 30% (the same 30%, but increase we saw this year). So still 11-13 minutes of average confirmation time (based on difficulty decrease), no instant failure at all!

[Oscilson]

It takes time for BTC enter main stream. In the mean while the price will go down as well as up.

[Etanllah]

lol, what about all the major retailers that are accepting Bitcoin? And Paypal slowly integrating it?

[cbeast]

Very simple

Miners need a good value to make mining profitable, ( unless you know an electric company who accepts bitcoins as payments they need cash to pay the bills)  if the value of the coin becomes so low it is no longer profitable to mine, BOOM instant failure, no miners means no transactions getting processed , if no one is processing transaction the coin fails.

So you see the value is just as important as the structure behind the transaction protocol

There are variety of asic miners mining all with different cost of mining - so thinking all of sudden at least half of them turn off the miner is pretty unrealistic. Unless the price crash to single digit this year it is safe to assume no retarging difficulty decrease will be over 30% (the same 30%, but increase we saw this year). So still 13 minutes of average confirmation time, no instant failure at all!

I'm still seeing a 10 minute average blocks per hour and not expecting any slowdown. Miners still want fresh coins. Market volume doesn't reflect any trend in selling. A few are selling, but most are holding. The ones that are selling desperately need the cash and the rest of us know that when the market comes back it will be impossible to get the coins back cheap.

Exchanges and brokers are placing buy and sell limits to how many coins can be exchanged. DDOS attacks tend to hurt panic buyers. It's just not worth worrying about someone dumping coins because it will be their loss in the long run. Regulated markets can be gamed this way, but Bitcoin will burn anyone trying to game the system because it is unregulated. We are seeing a wealth transfer from the speculators to the long term investors.

[coindetective]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

[cyberpinoy]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

One of the smaller of the chinese farms (as you call them) averages 280,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month with a 60,000 dollar electric bill. most of these farms you seek to destroy are not farms at all they are the people manufacturing or re-selling the mining equipment. they are manufacturing the equipment and then  they test it allright, they put that shit right to work mining for them until someone buys the machine. They keep it all in the chinese hands too they mine in a chinese pool and sell thier coins daily, why? Because they can!! pure and simple, they have no costs in the equipment they are mining with. all the machines they are mining with have been paid for by miners who purchased equipment on its release, thus no equipment costs, they dont care about bitcoin or me or you, they just want the cash. so they dump dump and more dump. to them it doesnt matter if the coin is worth 600 dollarts or 50 dollars they are bringing in over 700 coins a month even at 50 dollars a coin they are making bank. Especially when you base that on the CHY and not the USD value.

[coindetective]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

One of the smaller of the chinese farms (as you call them) averages 280,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month with a 60,000 dollar electric bill. most of these farms you seek to destroy are not farms at all they are the people manufacturing or re-selling the mining equipment. they are manufacturing the equipment and then  they test it allright, they put that shit right to work mining for them until someone buys the machine. They keep it all in the chinese hands too they mine in a chinese pool and sell thier coins daily, why? Because they can!! pure and simple, they have no costs in the equipment they are mining with. all the machines they are mining with have been paid for by miners who purchased equipment on its release, thus no equipment costs, they dont care about bitcoin or me or you, they just want the cash. so they dump dump and more dump. to them it doesnt matter if the coin is worth 600 dollarts or 50 dollars they are bringing in over 700 coins a month even at 50 dollars a coin they are making bank. Especially when you base that on the CHY and not the USD value.

True. But do not forget they are able to do this cause they are funded by naive buyers from the Western hemisphere paying for their pre-orders and never reaching ROI. With these prices, nobody ll be ordering more miners and as a result they ll have no market to sell their primary products. If you take a look at the last BTC difficulty growth, you ll get  an idea about this price killing industry of miners production. Only total idiot can order a miner now. So, in essence, these Chinese dumpers are sabotaging their own primary source of income which is not BTC but production of mining hardware. This is really smart move. Nobel prize move.

[coindetective]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

I agree, but personally I think it is a combination of margin traders, bots, and sheep.

If you keep an eye on somewhere such as Kraken for Euro selling, every now and then you will see a bot 'plink' 0.005 BTC, or sometimes 0.008, at a point below the market price. It will do so several times, which causes the 'last sold price' on Kraken, and the charts on sites such as BitCoinity to show a downward trend. The sheep don't look at the volume; you see some panicking and dumping whatever little amount they have, as they expect another flash crash, which is sometimes caused by:

Margin traders with positions shorting the market. They either cause a market crash through margin calls, which ironically fulfill there expectations after their position is closed, or they are big enough to drip feed the downward trend to to the sheep, in order to make it happen.

The rest is down to panic - yesterday at most points we saw around 2% drops on the $ and Yuan markets, while over 3.5% on Kraken.

Incidentally, Kraken has had several outages over the last two days, the last one about an hour ago, with Cloud Flare popping up a notice that their website was unavailable, then the live Kraken website stating that information was not available, and god knows what happening to trades, and reporting of trades and volume.  Not a good place to be, when you are trying to trade in this market.

Still, any seller who purchased in the last year and selling now is LOSING money. Bots or no bots, somebody needs to opt to sell and this means this person is either weak handed or a total MORON. All this under condition BTC sold are purchased at one point and not mined. If they are mined, then take a look at my previous comment.

[sidhujag]

aslong as tx/sec are rising its succeeding

[ethought]

Unfortunately this process will not fair well for bitcoin, if transaction times become longer it will begin to deter new users from keeping the coin after adopting it.

In theory this is not accurate.

If miners pull out the difficulty will re-target. One of the brilliant things about bitcoin is the variable difficulty.

The more miners the higher the difficulty goes.

If the number of miners (combined hashrate) is reduced then difficulty will go down.

The end result being, on average, the same block times no matter how many miners there are.

If a large percentage of miners dropped out at once that would be different, but that is very very unlikely to happen.

[OleOle]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

One of the smaller of the chinese farms (as you call them) averages 280,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month with a 60,000 dollar electric bill. most of these farms you seek to destroy are not farms at all they are the people manufacturing or re-selling the mining equipment. they are manufacturing the equipment and then  they test it allright, they put that shit right to work mining for them until someone buys the machine. They keep it all in the chinese hands too they mine in a chinese pool and sell thier coins daily, why? Because they can!! pure and simple, they have no costs in the equipment they are mining with. all the machines they are mining with have been paid for by miners who purchased equipment on its release, thus no equipment costs, they dont care about bitcoin or me or you, they just want the cash. so they dump dump and more dump. to them it doesnt matter if the coin is worth 600 dollarts or 50 dollars they are bringing in over 700 coins a month even at 50 dollars a coin they are making bank. Especially when you base that on the CHY and not the USD value.

Exactly, it's not a question of "dumb". The idea that someone is dumb just because someone on a forum somewhere says so is indeed the height of egocentric, ethnocentric ignorance. The bitcoin market is young, maybe the commentator of the 'dumb remarks' is also young, the point being that whilst all other markets do tend to move in cyclical patterns over the medium to long term, there is the open-ended assumption that the bitcoin market will continue and recover. It probably will, but bitcoin isn't like copper, cotton, gold or gasoline, it's a new commodity/currency and despite what the protagonists declare, there just isn't any 'need' for bitcoin, it's not a raw material that converts to or produces anything else, arguably it's an alternative vehicle of investment or exchange.

Although it's supposedly completely different, to many people unfamiliar with crypto, there's no reason to suggest that the lifetime of bitcoin might not look like these DVC values which tend towards zero when graphed:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/dvc/btc/crypto-trade/alltime

Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but attempting to label someone as dumb without knowing a damn thing about their circumstances or motivations to trade is simply ignorance.

 

[coindetective]

I really do not understand who are these morons who dump such amounts every few hours. By now, all weak hands should be out of the game so the ones who sell are only large, probably Chinese, farmers dumping every day to recover their costs. I would go and dismantle their farms with a fork if I could. One really needs to be DUMB to sell at these prices. But I mean really dumb.

One of the smaller of the chinese farms (as you call them) averages 280,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month with a 60,000 dollar electric bill. most of these farms you seek to destroy are not farms at all they are the people manufacturing or re-selling the mining equipment. they are manufacturing the equipment and then  they test it allright, they put that shit right to work mining for them until someone buys the machine. They keep it all in the chinese hands too they mine in a chinese pool and sell thier coins daily, why? Because they can!! pure and simple, they have no costs in the equipment they are mining with. all the machines they are mining with have been paid for by miners who purchased equipment on its release, thus no equipment costs, they dont care about bitcoin or me or you, they just want the cash. so they dump dump and more dump. to them it doesnt matter if the coin is worth 600 dollarts or 50 dollars they are bringing in over 700 coins a month even at 50 dollars a coin they are making bank. Especially when you base that on the CHY and not the USD value.

Exactly, it's not a question of "dumb". The idea that someone is dumb just because someone on a forum somewhere says so is indeed the height of egocentric, ethnocentric ignorance. The bitcoin market is young, maybe the commentator of the 'dumb remarks' is also young, the point being that whilst all other markets do tend to move in cyclical patterns over the medium to long term, there is the open-ended assumption that the bitcoin market will continue and recover. It probably will, but bitcoin isn't like copper, cotton, gold or gasoline, it's a new commodity/currency and despite what the protagonists declare, there just isn't any 'need' for bitcoin, it's not a raw material that converts to or produces anything else, arguably it's an alternative vehicle of investment or exchange.

Although it's supposedly completely different, to many people unfamiliar with crypto, there's no reason to suggest that the lifetime of bitcoin might not look like these DVC values which tend towards zero when graphed:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/dvc/btc/crypto-trade/alltime

Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but attempting to label someone as dumb without knowing a damn thing about their circumstances or motivations to trade is simply ignorance.

 

First, do not underestimate people you discuss here, especially after posting this kind of shallow post. Second, to suggest that "there just isn't any 'need' for bitcoin" is probably the statement of the century. Being sarcastic again. I am not even try to argue with you about BTC demand, after this sentence,you have said it all. Unless you consider only tangible goods as being the one with identifiable demand. There is no real purpose for bunch of financial derivatives or securities being bough and sold every day on global financial markets besides the one sole use - to make money. Yet, there is HUGE demand for these everywhere. Stating there s no need for BTC and being in this forum is......arghhhhh.
Also, I have already explained how Chinese ASIC producers and dumpers sabotage their own business by this mindless dumping cause they kill directly kill their own demand. Who is going to buy ASIC from them after seeing BTC crash from 600 to 360 in two months. Maybe someone with balls of steel but not me.

Thx for your a very educational post, I have learned a lot.

[coindetective]

Just to add, speculators definitely play significant role in all this, taking advantage of the weak hands and newbies.

For example, current Bitstamp order book, over 7000 BTC asks and 3790 bids. This means people try to buy 7000 BTC and only 3790 are being offered for sale cause majority of sellers obviously are not ready to sell at these prices. However, the price still goes down. Somebody with more TA knowledge, pls explain this. How is it possible the price to go down when demand for BTC is 2x of current supply on one of major European exchanges. China, right.

[sidhujag]

Just to add, speculators definitely play significant role in all this, taking advantage of the weak hands and newbies.

For example, current Bitstamp order book, over 7000 BTC asks and 3790 bids. This means people try to buy 7000 BTC and only 3790 are being offered for sale cause majority of sellers obviously are not ready to sell at these prices. However, the price still goes down. Somebody with more TA knowledge, pls explain this. How is it possible the price to go down when demand for BTC is 2x of current supply on one of major European exchanges. China, right.

You have it opposite.... 7000 btc asking to be sold and 3800 btc bidding to be bought.. causing percieved bear market... but bear bull markets are seen as those that buy or sell at market and right now market is being bought regardless of order book.

[cinnamon_carter]

somehow i think it is going to make it,

seems to have the right connections,

going to take a long time,

it's ok

I am a patient woman

[botany]

Just to add, speculators definitely play significant role in all this, taking advantage of the weak hands and newbies.

For example, current Bitstamp order book, over 7000 BTC asks and 3790 bids. This means people try to buy 7000 BTC and only 3790 are being offered for sale cause majority of sellers obviously are not ready to sell at these prices. However, the price still goes down. Somebody with more TA knowledge, pls explain this. How is it possible the price to go down when demand for BTC is 2x of current supply on one of major European exchanges. China, right.

It is the other way around. Bid = buy.
It also depends on the price people are willing to buy/sell at. It doesn't help if a lot of people are willing to buy bitcoin at $100. That isn't going to push the price up.