I think a major milestone for Bitcoin will be when Bitcoin ATM's become common place, it will kind of be an “ah ha” moment, and here is why I think this.
From this post I learned the following.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=768862.msg8666523#msg8666523Market Cap = 1 BTC price
MoneyGram = $36
Western Union = $440
Twitter = $1,380
GLD ETF = $1,538
SPY ETF = $8,231
Facebook = $9,517
Apple = $29,454
Gold = $352,525
Tax haven bank accounts = $1,428,571
If we had to pick one of these prices that is most similar to Bitcoin's price, it would be to Western Union. Now, that doesn't really mean very much by itself and might be anecdotal because it is hard to evenly compare the two. But Bitcoin does serve a function like Western Union in that they both can be used for international remittances, though Bitcoin can be used for much more.
Since Bitcoin's services and functions are actually more than Western Union which should make it more valuable, we can gather that since the price is lower than Western Union, it actually means Bitcoin isn't very good/popular for sending money.
I think Bitcoin ATM's can change all this. When I send $1000 overseas (I do it fairly regularly) I get stuck with a 5% loss, or about $50 from bank fees and the exchange rate.
I have noticed that it is possible with some services that fiat → bitcoin can set a person back only 1%. In time, I think competition might drive this even lower too. That means if I go from fiat → bitcoin → fiat I will lose a total of 2% and in the future even less. While getting money from USD ↔ bitcoin is easy with Coinbase, it just isn't so easy in most countries in the world, especially many poorer countries that could really benefit from the ATMs.
I know that there are a lot of Asians/Africans/Indians working abroad and yes some Westerners too of course. But of particular interest to me in this case are the Asians/Africans/Indians as they are usually working abroad to send money back home, which they do every month. They too are getting hit with fees just like me. They too might be sending about $1000 at a time.
Bitcoin ATMs could be very useful for them. First of all, we all know that many of these people are working illegally, which means that many are not holding proper bank accounts. With a Bitcoin ATM, this is no longer any problem at all. They can just put money in and get their Bitcoin. That private key can be sent overseas to a family member and in less than an hour the Bitcoin can be turned back into their home currency.
As an international remittance system using a Bitcoin ATM is in theory better than a bank in almost every way. Less paper work, quicker time physically at the ATM than at the bank, a lot quicker time for the person on the other end receiving the money, and of course it will be cheaper too.
For these reasons I feel like Bitcoin ATMs stand to position Bitcoin as a major and popular way to send money to different countries.
But its positive effects don't stop there. Once a family member back home has received the Bitcoin, they can of course go to an ATM and get fiat. But what if they were just going to take that fiat and go to the grocery store and buy groceries but that grocery store just happened to accept Bitcoin. Now, it doesn't even make any sense to go to the ATM because Bitcoin → fiat means losing 1% where as going to a grocery store that accepts Bitcoin directly will be less traveling, quicker, and cheaper. The grocery also likes it when its customers pay in Bitcoin because they get the money instantly, don't have to pay credit card fees of up to 3%, and unlike cash, it can't really be stolen by employees. I could even see the grocery offering a small discount to customers that pay in Bitcoin and if so then even less of a reason to turn one's Bitcoin into fiat. In this scenario Bitcoin has gone from being a form of international remittance to now also being a kind of real currency.
Right now in the world we have many stores that accept Bitcoin, but really these are concentrated in the first world. When ATM's are in the first world and third world, the infrastructure will be there to start the ball rolling for Bitcoin to become an actual currency.
In such a scenario Bitcoin hasn't become a full currency because the money flow starts off with person working in a rich country and getting paid in fiat and then it ends with the grocery in the poor country turning the Bitcoin into fiat. But I can't help but wonder in this scenario if the grocery store owner will know that changing the Bitcoin → fiat will make him lose 1%. Of course he will need that fiat, but maybe not all of it. Maybe the grocer will know a shoe shop down the road that accepts Bitcoin and also offers a small discount. So now the grocer knows that by keeping some of the money in Bitcoin he will not only not lose the 1% but will also get a small discount. Once the shoe shop guy gets the Bitcoin, he too now can choose to make the same decision and hold onto some of the Bitcoin because it serves his best interest when shopping a third shop down the street. Now in this scenario Bitcoin has still not become a full currency because it still isn't standing on its own completely, but it sure is coming a lot closer.
