My new diff thread covers Sept 25th to Oct 7.

[philipma1957]

Okay I have been very busy.  Last diff was big 16% on the 25th of sept.

Right now  the predication is:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   34,661,425,924
Estimated Next Difficulty:   37,480,382,393 (+8.13%)
Adjust time:   After 1629 Blocks, About 11.9 days


and

 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   34661425924
Estimated   34549633092 in 1629 blks

about -1 percent.

I have a really good idea why.  Simple last diff that jump bitmaintech put a shit load of s-4's online.  This jump they put none online.  They sold some and shipped them so right now they are in transit thus the tiny drop in hash rate.

Careful study of the all diff jumps since the release of the s-3 in july supports this theory ..  the out of bounds numbers would be a data center that was built by bitfury. and maybe some gear by spondoolies.  the rest is bitmaintech with some asicminer tossed in.

We are pretty much in a market that 3-5 asic builders run.

So we will have a smaller diff this time.

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[SMB-2525]

There is a real operating cost for the Chinese miners.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130515000080&cid=1102

Mining operations in China have low labor costs. Mining operations outside of China may have lower power costs and higher labor costs. This analysis assumes an all in cost to run the data center of $0.075, 700 W/THS and $350 BTC price. 10% bumps in difficulty every 13 days.

There is a real marginal cost to put new capacity into production irrespective of what hardware is in the pipeline.

So, the miner looking to add a Terrahash under these assumptions can expect it to produce 2 BTC by December 2015 at an operating cost of $573. So if BTC price stays at $350, then the terrahash nets $127. My bet is the marginal cost to put a new terrahash into production today exceeds $127 even if the chips have been built. Small miners can wait it out. Big miners may be feeling the heat. Especially the ones who need to dump BTC to keep the lights on.

Notice the to get to this production of 2 BTC by December, it goes negative on operating cost in April. By then, it produces 1.6 BTC (about $560)  for an operating cost of $246 netting $314. So they are looking at putting assets into production with a useful life of 6 months. Very risky business decision.

[philipma1957]

We know they can build them very cheaply.  Since asicminer/friedcat sells then in ten packs under 390 usd a th.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=791827.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=795477.0


 Building a warehouse is not a big deal in china

  so the key is what do they pay per k-watt.    if they get cheap power (under 5 cents)  the model reaches out until june or july of 2015

and the diff jumps still look to be 7-11 from now until then.    .. They are better off with less growth then that but..  

 I do not know the $$$ a kwatt number.

There is a real operating cost for the Chinese miners.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130515000080&cid=1102

Mining operations in China have low labor costs. Mining operations outside of China may have lower power costs and higher labor costs. This analysis assumes an all in cost to run the data center of $0.075, 700 W/THS and $350 BTC price. 10% bumps in difficulty every 13 days.

There is a real marginal cost to put new capacity into production irrespective of what hardware is in the pipeline.

So, the miner looking to add a Terrahash under these assumptions can expect it to produce 2 BTC by December 2015 at an operating cost of $573. So if BTC price stays at $350, then the terrahash nets $127. My bet is the marginal cost to put a new terrahash into production today exceeds $127 even if the chips have been built. Small miners can wait it out. Big miners may be feeling the heat. Especially the ones who need to dump BTC to keep the lights on.

Notice the to get to this production of 2 BTC by December, it goes negative on operating cost in April. By then, it produces 1.6 BTC (about $560)  for an operating cost of $246 netting $314. So they are looking at putting assets into production with a useful life of 6 months. Very risky business decision.

[philipma1957]

one more thread