Okay I have been very busy. Last diff was big 16% on the 25th of sept.
Right now the predication is:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 34,661,425,924
Estimated Next Difficulty: 37,480,382,393 (+8.13%)
Adjust time: After 1629 Blocks, About 11.9 days
and
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/Difficulty 34661425924
Estimated 34549633092 in 1629 blks
about -1 percent.
I have a really good idea why. Simple last diff that jump bitmaintech put a shit load of s-4's online. This jump they put none online. They sold some and shipped them so right now they are in transit thus the tiny drop in hash rate.
Careful study of the all diff jumps since the release of the s-3 in july supports this theory .. the out of bounds numbers would be a data center that was built by bitfury. and maybe some gear by spondoolies. the rest is bitmaintech with some asicminer tossed in.
We are pretty much in a market that 3-5 asic builders run.
So we will have a smaller diff this time.