at least you looked into it now.
We could say that difficulty has followed the granter hype cycle so far, but as far as price goes you cannot match it to either of those curves if you don't leave out some essential element.
Price could at some point mimic the startup curve, but that would imply we stay at USD 5 for a full year, crash briefly and then take off. (But then the slope of wearing off novelty would be too flat) Very different from the scenario you are proposing in the OP. The Trough of Sorrow cannot from this scheme be very short and has to be a substantial length at least as long as the other periods. We haven't been stable for that amount of time yet.
All in all this is not a good model for expectations on prices.
this on the other hand could match the slope almost perfectly, (although with bitcoin it's more extreme)
But it would imply falling prices till we are at 2-3 again...
(We would be at 1984-85 right now, possible sooner that depends on whenever you compress the timescales or not)
