40 Days Until Liftoff...

[OgNasty]

One of the things often touted about Bitcoin is that everyone who has held it for one year has seen a profit regardless of when they bought.  With the declines we've seen over the last 10 months, that statement is in danger of no longer being accurate.  This is in spite of wave after wave of good news and increased adoption.  As others have recently pointed out, mining profitability is currently extremely low, reminding some of us of the December 2011 time period.  Is the rubber band about to snap, or are we about to commence liftoff?

Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.

[CMMPro]

Personally I think we have a few weeks of this left...keep your eye on the 3 day KDJ for a <20 cross over around Oct 12-19.

[gentlemand]

It's too young and small to expect any pattern to be repeating. If it was a few decades old then perhaps we'd have an idea based on past performance. 

[mmortal03]

One of the things often touted about Bitcoin is that everyone who has held it for one year has seen a profit regardless of when they bought.

This wasn't the case in 2011. If you bought in near the peak, it took between 17 and 20 months before you broke even. Take a look at the Mt. Gox chart for yourself: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

[wobber]

My counterargument for a rally is that too many people expect a massive one, but nobody really buys.

[Elwar]

One of the things often touted about Bitcoin is that everyone who has held it for one year has seen a profit regardless of when they bought.

This wasn't the case in 2011. If you bought in near the peak, it took between 17 and 20 months before you broke even. Take a look at the Mt. Gox chart for yourself: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

This was me...my first purchase was $10,000 worth of bitcoins at $17 each.

I sold at the 17 month point.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Why 40 days and not 60 or 2000? There are no reasons to think in 40 days nothing interesting will happen. What I feel is we'll keep going down slowly for a long period of time before we see anything near 700 again.

[inca]

Why 40 days and not 60 or 2000? There are no reasons to think in 40 days nothing interesting will happen. What I feel is we'll keep going down slowly for a long period of time before we see anything near 700 again.

Why should this downtrend continue for a long period of time? You buying in low is not a market factor.

[yayayo]

One of the things often touted about Bitcoin is that everyone who has held it for one year has seen a profit regardless of when they bought.  With the declines we've seen over the last 10 months, that statement is in danger of no longer being accurate.  This is in spite of wave after wave of good news and increased adoption.  As others have recently pointed out, mining profitability is currently extremely low, reminding some of us of the December 2011 time period.  Is the rubber band about to snap, or are we about to commence liftoff?

Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.

A massive rally near year end seems unrealistic to me. We must enter a stabilization / bottom phase first. I think we are very close to capitulation that will mark the start for the stabilization phase. By stabilization I mean a slow rise up to the $600 level. I expect that the stabilization phase will take at least a year.

So from my point of view, more patience is needed. But after that I expect a big rise that will reward the wait.

ya.ya.yo!

[derpinheimer]

lmao @ bell curve

[lyth0s]

My counterargument for a rally is that too many people expect a massive one, but nobody really buys.

BUT all the weak hands have already sold and when the price rises they will be bringing the fiat back + more coins are in the hands of holders now.

[coinableS]

I chose probably because I'm hopeful, but I wouldn't be surprised if we broke the 12 month rule.
A ton of new money will need to enter the exchanges for the price to rise.

[Dafar]

I am still holding my bitcoins. I think at the end of the year we will see new all time high (ATH) and much more. I am pretty sure 40 days enough for lift off. Under 400$ is still good opportunity.

I'll bet you 1BTC that we won't see a new ATH by the end of the year.



Sorry guys, but this is the first year where you will not profit from holding BTC... all "patterns" you guys are relying on will be broken, and it started with the bullshit 123 day bubble cycle.


Bitcoin is never predictable. You want to become rich off BTC? Stop acting like you know what will happen, and stop following the charts. Maybe we'll see the next ATH after the 2016 block halving... but to expect one before the end of the year is ludicrous

[jaredboice]

A bunch of anonymous forum posters are telling us bitcoin is dead again.  Time to dump our coins 

[BittBurger]

Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.

The past has nothing to do with the future.

-B-

[bigasic]

I hope your right. Ive given up on trying to figure out what bitcoin is going to do. Im a hodler and thats about it. Most of my coins were mined, so the only cost is electricity, so who knows what my "buy in" cost is, it should be pretty low. My only regret is not selling more near the ATH. Well, at least i was able to take advantage of it..

Lets hope this fall and winter is good for btc...

[zimmah]

lmao @ bell curve

First thing I noticed too, pretty nice.

Also to the one who said many people expect a rally, but no one is buying. No one of them is buying because they already have bought all they can afford. The adoption has to come from outside the bitcoin system. And judging by the charts, there are new people adopting bitcoin every day. Adoption is happening, it's just not yet enough to battle the selloff from miners and merchants.

[oyvinds]

Feel free to post your arguments for or against a massive end of the year rally.

My argument against it: The USD rally will probably continue after retracing the move from 80 to 86 (on the USD index).

A strong USD means a strong CNY and weaker oil, gold and BTC.

[fa]

Mostly "I don't know" indicates people are lack of conficence right now. The price might still go down. 

[Bitcopia]

As of this posting, the distribution of votes is perfectly symmetrical! It seems I don't know is the most popular answer, as it should be  

And to answer the OP, I think price is significantly behind new infrastructure, businesses, investment, and use cases for Bitcoin that have developed since the last bubble. Not sure about 40 days, but I would guess the bottom is near.