Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease)

[RawDog]

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down?  We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.  
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[TheRealSteve]

Good thing you adjusted the title - no such thing as negative difficulty, of course

As for 'first in modern times', that depends on what you define as 'modern times', but the last time it happened was apparently the 25th of January, 2013.  So, quite a while ago, and it would mark only the 20th time it's happened.

The next difficulty is still many blocks away, though (1,032 at moment of refresh), so I wouldn't peg it down just yet.

[fairlay]

here you can watch the chances for different difficulty changes.

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/

It is still likely that the next increase will be around 3%. I don't think a decrease will happen.

[xstr8guy]

We're still a week away from the next difficulty increase. Yes, I said INcrease. It's not going down. Let's just call it a hunch. 

[RoadStress]

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down?  We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.  
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Isn't it funny that one month after my GB SP30 were delivered that the difficulty stopped? Looking back in the GB thread makes me smile at all those replies with nonstop +20% difficulty increase projections.

[jimmothy]

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down?  We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.  
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Isn't it funny that one month after my GB SP30 were delivered that the difficulty stopped? Looking back in the GB thread makes me smile at all those replies with nonstop +20% difficulty increase projections.

Congrats. All of your customers will now only suffer a 50% loss instead of 70%, surely something to be proud of.

Of course everyone who bought any ASIC before June has already turned a profit by now but as we know profit is irrelevant to SPtech hardware owners.

[TheJuice]

Modern times is since the introduction of asic chips. It'll be interestingif this is a real change or just a blip from bfls hashing ooperation going off line.

[TheRealSteve]

Modern times is since the introduction of asic chips.

In that case: Yep, would be the first time since then (approximately May 2013 - mass introduction of the Block Erupter USB)

[RoadStress]

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down?  We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.  
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Isn't it funny that one month after my GB SP30 were delivered that the difficulty stopped? Looking back in the GB thread makes me smile at all those replies with nonstop +20% difficulty increase projections.

Congrats. All of your customers will now only suffer a 50% loss instead of 70%, surely something to be proud of.

Of course everyone who bought any ASIC before June has already turned a profit by now but as we know profit is irrelevant to SPtech hardware owners.

Are you talking about a $ or BTC loss?

[Syke]

Isn't it funny that one month after my GB SP30 were delivered that the difficulty stopped? Looking back in the GB thread makes me smile at all those replies with nonstop +20% difficulty increase projections.

Nah, the difficulty increases started slowing down in July, before those were delivered.

Let's take a look back at when it started:

Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

Since the GB was opened, the difficulty increases have averaged 13.3%. 15% was a damn close estimate for more than a dozen difficulty increases.

Your comment was based on JWU42's estimate:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=6978842650&dcosts=4995&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=5400000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.5&btcusd=453.80&dpowcon=2500&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.115&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=9&action=calc#

After 13 increases he estimated the difficulty would be 35.5 B. It is now 34.6 B. Great estimate JWU42!

[fairlay]

After 13 increases he estimated the difficulty would be 35.5 B. It is now 34.6 B. Great estimate JWU42!

You are right - 15% increase has been a very good estimate so far. But I think we are all pretty sure that it will not continue. Otherwise we would have a diffuculty of 100B at the end of the year.
http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=34661425924&dcosts=4995&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=5400000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.5&btcusd=453.80&dpowcon=2500&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.115&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=9&action=calc#

If you would predict that and you would be right you would get 5 times your money back:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-100b-by-the-end-of-the-year/

Even the decrease on the next changes get more likely, currently you get 1.6 times your money back if you predict against it:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-on-next-change/

[taipo]

Most had predicted the rise of hashrate in jumps would peak about now. I think it still has a way to go yet. Maybe by XMAS before the big players start to blink.

[melds39]

well with the price on a steady decline, it only makes sense difficulty decreases/stagnates.

[xstr8guy]

well with the price on a steady decline, it only makes sense difficulty decreases/stagnates.

No it doesn't. At least not in the short term. ASIC manufacturers have long term plans to continue to add hash capacity to their massive mining operations. We may have adjustment periods now where we don't see big jumps but they will be interrupted by frequent 10-20% difficulty adjustments.

Just wait until Bitfury brings a couple more DCs online in the near future. 

[nocroom]

so what now, mine other coins ?

[xstr8guy]

so what now, mine other coins ?

All other POW coins are complete crap... or will soon become crap when the new generation of Scrypt ASICs start jacking-up the difficulty.

Mining is dead (or dying) for every coin.

[freedomno1]

Well a difficulty decrease isn't that bad considering Bitcoins is hitting 35 Billion right now
Some sort of stabilization might actually make mining more attractive again
Sometime in the future of course or it might slow down the arms race or perhaps central mining centers kind of tricky to tell the trend transition going on here.

[xstr8guy]

It's really sad that ASICs can't do Folding@Home. We'd cure cancer in a week if we could switch our gear over to Folding instead of mining, lol.

[Feneusens]

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down?  We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.  
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

No, because BFL just started his mining factory again...

[Grix]

2016 blocks average right now suggests a -3% adjustments, and only five days to go. I'd say that yes, by now there is a pretty big chance the difficulty will actually go down. For that not to happen the hashrate needs to see a sudden increase pretty soon and sustained for the rest of the difficulty period.