Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease)

[nocroom]

It's really sad that ASICs can't do Folding@Home. We'd cure cancer in a week if we could switch our gear over to Folding instead of mining, lol.

no kidding

[TheJuice]

2016 blocks average right now suggests a -3% adjustments, and only five days to go. I'd say that yes, by now there is a pretty big chance the difficulty will actually go down. For that not to happen the hashrate needs to see a sudden increase pretty soon and sustained for the rest of the difficulty period.

Betting sites have it around a 50% either way. It's going to be close.

[philipma1957]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

[mmeijeri]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

[philipma1957]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %


look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

 I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
 I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
 I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
 I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
 I count  8 paid for on  10-4-2014  that comes to around 180 units  that is 360th  which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

 but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line  brings it to  290 units of  about 580th  .   

[TheJuice]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %


look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

 I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
 I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
 I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
 I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
 I count  8 paid for on  10-4-2014  that comes to around 180 units  that is 360th  which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

 but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line  brings it to  290 units of  about 580th  .   

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

[philipma1957]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %


look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

 I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
 I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
 I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
 I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
 I count  8 paid for on  10-4-2014  that comes to around 180 units  that is 360th  which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

 but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line  brings it to  290 units of  about 580th  .   

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

but they have hashnest  and it is more then 4ph and growing.

  asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap  .

which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.

[xstr8guy]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %


look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

 I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
 I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
 I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
 I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
 I count  8 paid for on  10-4-2014  that comes to around 180 units  that is 360th  which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

 but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line  brings it to  290 units of  about 580th  .   

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

but they have hashnest  and it is more then 4ph and growing.

  asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap  .

which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.

Retail miners make up just a small portion of the hashrate these days. In my opinion, it's useless to use as a basis for predictions. Someone like Bitfury just has to flip the "on" switch for a new DC or two and the difficulty jumps another 20%.

[philipma1957]

...

Retail miners make up just a small portion of the hashrate these days. In my opinion, it's useless to use as a basis for predictions. Someone like Bitfury just has to flip the "on" switch for a new DC or two and the difficulty jumps another 20%.

not exactly but close enough.

I suspect that they could add 20th with ease. for 3 or 4 diff jumps alone.

The problem big data center/builders have is not adding gear. it is adding fiat price to the btc itself.

I have mined  10 dollar coins in early jan of 2013 I hit the runup to 240usd in april 2013  I hit the runup to 1100 in nov 2013.  

These companies need to runup btc price not btc diff to make money.

we need to see what happens  with diff

as the btc to usd is sinking close to the 300 dollar level

[TheJuice]

As of 2014-10-05 02:10:00: 702 more blocks need to be found before 2014-10-09 21:18:02 for it to increased in difficulty.

4 days 19 hours 8 minutes. That's 9.84 minutes a block. or 59.04 minutes per 6 blocks. Currently we are doing 59.8 mins p[er 6 blocks over the last 504. It's going to be VERY close. A few more % in real hasrate have to be added in the last day or so to make up for it. Otherwise it's going down.

[xstr8guy]

I'm currently seeing 0% as of this moment and there are still 4 more days to go. And the block find rate is now 7.06 per hour.

It's going up.

[skuser]

Don't forget you are working with variance (luck) here, so the difficulty can change +/- 3% without any hashrate change, just by probability of finding blocks...

This is what I am talking about: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=619438.0

[freedomno1]

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

[xstr8guy]

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

That's true up to a point. But miners are like speculators, they'll keep running their gear at a loss with hopes that the price of BTC will rebound.

I'm mining at a loss with BTC hovering at ~$300 but I haven't shut anything off that's 1w/GHs or less. And I'll keep running for a couple of more weeks to a month unless BTC dumps under $200... then everything goes in the trash, lol.

Jeebus, this sucks though! Please Jeebus, can we have another Thanksgiving miracle this year? 

[freedomno1]

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

That's true up to a point. But miners are like speculators, they'll keep running their gear at a loss with hopes that the price of BTC will rebound.

I'm mining at a loss with BTC hovering at ~$300 but I haven't shut anything off that's 1w/GHs or less. And I'll keep running for a couple of more weeks to a month unless BTC dumps under $200... then everything goes in the trash, lol.

Jeebus, this sucks though! Please Jeebus, can we have another Thanksgiving miracle this year?  

I sure hope so
Otherwise were going back to the 250 dollar peak and thats really testing the waters of 2011
Means one hell of a rise though when the market gets back to snuff and adjusts from all that downward pressure.

On the bright side more hash in new gear to offset the price
Be interesting to see how the mining gear companies react to it

[mavericklm]

Hash Rate    301,530,044.97 GH/s
over 50ph with a flip of a switch!

LE: now at 315,314,275.60 GH/s

[mmeijeri]

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %

Looks as if your prediction is coming true.

[TheJuice]

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to  miners will come back on the network.

 more then  1 or 2 percent of the network  is in transit to new s-4 owners.

 Not talking a big gain like 10 %


look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

 I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
 I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
 I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
 I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
 I count  8 paid for on  10-4-2014  that comes to around 180 units  that is 360th  which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

 but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line  brings it to  290 units of  about 580th  .   

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

but they have hashnest  and it is more then 4ph and growing.

  asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap  .

which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.

Looks like you were right

[philipma1957]

amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd.  I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.

[jonnybravo0311]

amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd.  I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.

Not really that amazing... cheap power ($0.01-$0.03) still proves to turn a profit even if the price of BTC stays at $285 with 10% jumps.  Manufacturers with access to both cheap hardware and cheap power can continue adding gear and still make profit for quite some time yet.