Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease)

[TheRealSteve]

well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all

Bummer 

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim

There's always next time, though

[philipma1957]

well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all

Bummer 

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim

There's always next time, though

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!

[TheRealSteve]

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?)

yes wait until next year

( I was, of course, referring to the Bitcoin difficulty retargeting being based on the last 2015 blocks, not the last 2016 blocks, due to a bug in the code that was never fixed.  There's some other anomalies that can further offset the difficulty by a tiny smidgen. )

[funtotry]

well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all

Bummer 

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim

There's always next time, though

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!

The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network

[xstr8guy]

well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all

Bummer 

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim

There's always next time, though

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!

The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network

It's way too soon after the last adjustment to make any assumptions. The early predictions are usually very inaccurate.

[philipma1957]

well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all

Bummer 

Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim

There's always next time, though

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!

The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network

It's way too soon after the last adjustment to make any assumptions. The early predictions are usually very inaccurate.

It will be under 10% for sure unless coins go up.  I am convinced they  are holding back hash and hoping coins go up in price. 

 But frankly WTF do I know, not much when it comes to the top 5 builders of asics stock on hand.

[freedomno1]

There is still some hash that may come online for now
At the least in the long run a higher hash per price ratio will occur so we might still see difficulty rise
Something like if price is 500 price per gh is 1 dollar
If price was 300 price per gh is 60 cents to keep it equal meaning more hash offered or units get a discount.

Anyways doesn't look a decrease for now.

[philipma1957]

There is still some hash that may come online for now
At the least in the long run a higher hash per price ratio will occur so we might still see difficulty rise
Something like if price is 500 price per gh is 1 dollar
If price was 300 price per gh is 60 cents to keep it equal meaning more hash offered or units get a discount.

Anyways doesn't look a decrease for now.

So it  looks like a slow increase of 5% or so.  My thoughts are 5%-9% will be close to most increases from now on.
 Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Builders are still making money  with the small diff jump model for now.

[mmeijeri]

Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.

[RoadStress]

Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.

Those take time. At least 3 months from tape out and no future generation chip has taped out yet.

[philipma1957]

Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.

you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar. 

  so  a jump  down to .4 watts does not cut it.

A jump down  to 0.15 - 0.3 watts  a hash has  real meaning.

I Still think late feb is optimistic  to think we see a real .2 watt machine.

   Remember gpus were 333 watts a gh     we now are at .8 a gh  (s-3 at the wall)   that was a 400x improvement.

so .8 to .2 would be nice but not the same by any means.   

[petahashminer]

wisdom says that

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,002,482,026
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,073,113,817 (+3.06%)

and it is decreasing, we need to wait 1275 Blocks, About 8.8 days, to see what will happen..

[Syke]

you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar. 

Right now a 1 TH/s, .6 J/GH machine looks like this:

Income @ $410/btc: $180/mo
Expense @ $.10/kwh: $43/mo

There's still significant profit potential at the current conditions.

[fairlay]

The chances for a decrease are very small. For sure less than 3%...

[philipma1957]

you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar.  

Right now a 1 TH/s, .6 J/GH machine looks like this:

Income @ $410/btc: $180/mo
Expense @ $.10/kwh: $43/mo

There's still significant profit potential at the current conditions.

Yeah but from the asic companies view point it is a tight margin if they want  to make another 20 or 30ph data center.

Just think  what happens if coins drop to 300 or 280 usd.   For now restriction of production new data centers while mining your current data center in theory  would drive the price of btc up.  They could only sell some to miners at high prices

( s-3's and s4's both high prices)  also (sp20's and sp35's) 

 BTW asicminer is selling long tubes (low price)  but they are late to ship. So it  sounds to me like these builders have conference calls.

 Then stop building data centers for 30 to 60 days.   Hoping coins move to 500 usd or more.


Please Remember this is the speculation section so guessing about shit and making up scenarios is fun to do.

[mavericklm]

I think it will go up! On blockchain there are few new farms, and in between this motherfucker:

https://blockchain.info/blocks/88.208.1.25

There is a balance: high btc price=higher difficulty, low btc price=low difficulty.
I hope for the later but btc price can go to 1k this month... or down to 200$...

[scarsbergholden]

you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar. 

Right now a 1 TH/s, .6 J/GH machine looks like this:

Income @ $410/btc: $180/mo
Expense @ $.10/kwh: $43/mo

There's still significant profit potential at the current conditions.

This is true, however you need to remember that miners will be making a long term investment when buying an additional miner. If a miner does not think that conditions will stay the way they are for long enough then they will not purchase an additional miner to add to their farm. One example as to why a miner would not add to their farm is they think the price will continue to decline, or are unsure as to how much the price will increase in the future, or that they think the difficulty will increase quicker then they would be allowed to ROI or that the price of electricity will increase over time. 

[TheRealSteve]

OP, you forgot to revive this thread!
63 more blocks to go, currently projected difficulty adjustment (at bitcoinwisdom): -0.56%

[philipma1957]

OP, you forgot to revive this thread!
63 more blocks to go, currently projected difficulty adjustment (at bitcoinwisdom): -0.56%

   Please don't fucking jinx us. 

 That reads   too harsh in print.   I mean it funny not harsh.


Frankly It would be cool to see in as a - 0.1%   and not a + 0.2% !!

[TheRealSteve]

Imagine seeing 0.00% .. when's the last time that happened?