Home mining is dead.

[xstr8guy]

I just don't see a scenario where future generations of hardware will make sense at any cost. Efficiency seems to be stalled at .7w/GHs at best. And only the few home miners with sub $0.10/kWh will be able to profit after the next 2 or 3 difficulty adjustments.

Does it make sense for manufacturers to go to smaller process nodes for future generations of miners? It will cost so much more to develop and take so much time, it will be too late for the next gen to make sense for the home miner. And then, would they even bother to sell them at retail?

Massive datacenters will continue to be built by ASIC manufacturers in locations with super-cheap electricity. Therefore difficulty will continue to rise. Even if they could get efficiency to sub .5w/GHs with a smaller process node, it will be way too late for home miners.


Btw, this does not come as a surprise for me. I'm pessimistic about home mining and have been predicting variations of this scenario for months. But I just wanted to get opinions from others. Thanks!

[ChuckBuck]

As long as Difficulty continues to climb and Asic Manufacturers continue to self mine with their huge industrial farms, the home/hobby miner will be mining at a loss from the word "go".

There's no scenario really where it benefits a miner to home to plug in at this point.  You'll never recoup the startup and operational costs, so why bother.  Even with a fiat price spike, it'd be better off just buying the coin outright.

Home mining truly is dead.

[c0ffer]

For BTC maybe. Altcoin home mining is still workable.

Although if the estimated difficulty holds we're on the way to a decrease

[xstr8guy]

For BTC maybe. Altcoin home mining is still workable.

Although if the estimated difficulty holds we're on the way to a decrease

Do you mean SHA alts or Scrypt coins? And are we talking Scrypt ASICs or GPUs?

[philipma1957]

I see only spot mining for us home miners.  

 5 cents a kwatt

.7 watts a gh is the new montra.

So anyone that can so that can mine at home.  I can't come close to that.

 My friends office lets me do 1100 watts at 2.4 cents  that is 3 s-3's.  they will be good to mine for a long time.

My in house is 15 cents the heat benefits lower that to 10 cents at 370 usd this stops in jan.

I now buy coins and hold them.
most of my investment is coins.

[ajw7989]

a safer investment is like most say to just buy bitcoin. Mining at home is only profitable if you can manage to mine altcoins and pick a good one. Bitcoin home mining is pointless. Even if bitcoin price does go up cloud mining with companies will still be more profitable. Hopefully there becomes a lot of good competition this way mining will not become lopsided

[CustomChickenDelivery]

my KNC mercury is still giving me poker chips for seals, every couple weeks. 

[joae1975]

I solo mine 3gh.  I figure I have a 1 in 42 million chance of hitting a block every 10 minutes.  Better than powerball odds, not as big a jackpot tho.  But I'll take it.

Is my math right?

[seoincorporation]

Maybe with the new generation miners, the mining will be business again...

The ANTMINER L1 (Speed: 120MH/s) have some future:

https://bitmaintech.com/

[bitcoinbelieve]

Home mining is not dead in fact the mega factories would die first before home mining does. They can't recoup their investments and their operating fees when the BTC is  continually going downward direction. They have more pressure to make a profit than avg. home miner. Most of home miners see this as a hobby not a job

[Mattofla]

If you have some solar panels at home maybe it could work out your profit.

[philipma1957]

Home mining is not dead in fact the mega factories would die first before home mining does. They can't recoup their investments and their operating fees when the BTC is  continually going downward direction. They have more pressure to make a profit than avg. home miner. Most of home miners see this as a hobby not a job

well I will give you this a home guy can mine 1 s-3 and just bank the coins .  he will  not lose much doing that.

under 300 for he s-3  40 a month for power.  a small home miner will not lose a lot if he did this.

[Cluster2k]

If you have some solar panels at home maybe it could work out your profit.

I have 5kw of solar panels at home and am currently pulling in an average of 25KwH per day.  I get three times more money selling the power to the grid than using it to make bitcoins.  The sold power is tax free, refund from the power company comes automatically once every three months, there are no exchange fees to pay and I don't need to hand over my private info to some anonymous exchange in eastern Europe.

In other words, although I could mine for 'free' during the day, I would be losing a lot of money doing so.

[wilth1]

Does it make sense for manufacturers to go to smaller process nodes for future generations of miners? It will cost so much more to develop and take so much time, it will be too late for the next gen to make sense for the home miner. And then, would they even bother to sell them at retail?

It's only made sense for manufacturers to sell retail to offset their own mining reinvestment costs.

Efficiency may be leveling out, but operational scaling has only just begun.

[RoadStress]

I solo mine 3gh.  I figure I have a 1 in 42 million chance of hitting a block every 10 minutes.  Better than powerball odds, not as big a jackpot tho.  But I'll take it.

Is my math right?

I would like to know that too!

[hedgy73]

I solo mine 3gh.  I figure I have a 1 in 42 million chance of hitting a block every 10 minutes.  Better than powerball odds, not as big a jackpot tho.  But I'll take it.

Is my math right?

I would like to know that too!

With 3 GH at current difficulty would take on average 895 years to solo mine a block according to http://www.bitcoinx.com/.

Doesn't mean to say you wont find one today, tomorrow or next week but your chances are very slim.

[aurel57]

If you have some solar panels at home maybe it could work out your profit.

I have 5kw of solar panels at home and am currently pulling in an average of 25KwH per day.  I get three times more money selling the power to the grid than using it to make bitcoins.  The sold power is tax free, refund from the power company comes automatically once every three months, there are no exchange fees to pay and I don't need to hand over my private info to some anonymous exchange in eastern Europe.

In other words, although I could mine for 'free' during the day, I would be losing a lot of money doing so.

Just wondering how much per KW the power company is paying or crediting you? Some electric companies require a duel meter where the electric you use they charge you normal price but only want to pay you for your electric "generating cost" which can be a 1/4 of what they charge.

[rammy2k2]

For BTC maybe. Altcoin home mining is still workable.

Although if the estimated difficulty holds we're on the way to a decrease

Do you mean SHA alts or Scrypt coins? And are we talking Scrypt ASICs or GPUs?

I think he means SCRYPT asics

[MaxDZ8]

For mining to stay at homes, it has to be so little profitable big investments have better alternatives yet enough profitable to let you pay for at least the running costs.
Because residential electricity is usually more expensive I see those two conditions very difficult to happen at the same time.
To sustain the costs, coin value must rise higher than difficulty. Might have worked for BTC but surely won't happen for any alt. Except in short term maybe, PnD "is proven to work".

[Feneusens]

Home mining isnt dead. We just need cheaper power to complete with the giants...