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Author Topic: Mt. Gox USD 365-day change is now positive... when will it become negative?  (Read 3484 times)
dree12
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May 11, 2012, 01:53:21 AM
 #1

(Not a poll this time, just a place to keep the chart updated).

As you may or may not know, on 2012-05-10 the Mt. Gox USD 365-day open change indicator went negative for the first time in it's 300+ day history. On every day since 2010-07-17, with the exception of between 2011-06-20 and 2011-06-26, there has been at least one trade, and therefore an open price. The open price is not by itself important; however, it is a well-known statistic and used for many previous publications. Back during the new year, media reported 1500% increases from 2011-01-01; these days are gone now: less than half a year later, the increase is now a decrease. This change is not entirely due to a drop in current price; rather, it is mostly due to a failure to increase as fast as the June 2011 bubble. As such, the current spell of negative yearly changes should fall by November of this year, barring price failures this year also.

Previously, I have posted charts containing as much information as is available without extrapolation (obviously, no information is available less than one year after Mt. Gox begun trading). However, the early days of the chart still include data from much too long ago to be significant, and so I cut out every part except for 2012 in the new chart (this is approximately half the data of the old chart gone). The new chart should be cleaner, and better display the data:



Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease



Note that although it has not yet become necessary, at a certain point the opens of 2011-06-20 to 2011-06-26 will have to be replaced with $17.51 (as it is the last trade on Mt. Gox). I am also updating a chart that uses weighted averages; if there is a high demand for that chart, I will post it too here.
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FreeMoney
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May 11, 2012, 02:06:35 AM
 #2

Better be by October. If it doesn't do it by October it's going to be a cold winter for me.

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dree12
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May 12, 2012, 02:55:28 AM
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Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

proudhon
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May 12, 2012, 04:16:23 AM
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Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease


This is going to be even more fun to watch as the price falls.
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this statement is false


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May 12, 2012, 05:21:04 AM
 #5

This is going to be even more fun to watch as the price falls.

it'll be fun to watch as we enter the bubble territory, but the huge downward spike it'll form shouldn't be a bearish indicator, as you seem to be suggesting. in fact, the crossover we see here is simply due to the current stability of the price versus the entirely unhealthy double ramp that started around this time last year. this chart is interesting, but not very speculative.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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proudhon
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May 12, 2012, 12:36:33 PM
 #6

This is going to be even more fun to watch as the price falls.

it'll be fun to watch as we enter the bubble territory, but the huge downward spike it'll form shouldn't be a bearish indicator, as you seem to be suggesting. in fact, the crossover we see here is simply due to the current stability of the price versus the entirely unhealthy double ramp that started around this time last year. this chart is interesting, but not very speculative.

I'm not suggesting that the huge downward spike should be a bearish indicator, there are plenty actual bearish indicators to pick from.
dree12
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May 13, 2012, 12:36:43 AM
 #7

Warning: scale change necessary in near future.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

teflone
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May 13, 2012, 12:57:48 AM
 #8

Can you try to explain this measurement to me as a laymen ?

its intriguing me..

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proudhon
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May 13, 2012, 01:33:00 AM
 #9

Can you try to explain this measurement to me as a laymen ?

its intriguing me..

100% is 100% of the price exactly one year ago.  Everything in green represents times when the price was some amount greater than it was exactly one year past.  The price is now lower today than it was exactly one year ago, and what this chart will come to show in the coming months is more and more red because in 2011 around this time and onward from here the price shot up and stayed above $10 for a few months.  It's very doubtful the price will recover to those levels this year and so we probably won't see this chart back in the green again until November, when the price a year past was in the $2s.
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May 13, 2012, 01:58:16 AM
 #10

Can you try to explain this measurement to me as a laymen ?

its intriguing me..

100% is 100% of the price exactly one year ago.  Everything in green represents times when the price was some amount greater than it was exactly one year past.  The price is now lower today than it was exactly one year ago, and what this chart will come to show in the coming months is more and more red because in 2011 around this time and onward from here the price shot up and stayed above $10 for a few months.  It's very doubtful the price will recover to those levels this year and so we probably won't see this chart back in the green again until November, when the price a year past was in the $2s.

Ahhhhhh thanks proudhon..

This isnt so important sounding now.. Smiley

as we approach the spike of 30 dollars last june (or whenever it was) I guess this will continue..

perfect explanation, thanks

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May 13, 2012, 05:06:40 PM
 #11

Sept 10th, but probably later
dree12
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May 14, 2012, 02:33:21 AM
 #12

Warning: scale change necessary in near future.
Notice: date has not been updated, sorry.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

Crypt_Current
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May 15, 2012, 02:54:56 AM
 #13

5/18/2012

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dree12
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May 15, 2012, 03:03:58 AM
 #14

Warning: scale change necessary in very near future.
Notice: date is correct.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

dree12
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May 16, 2012, 02:10:09 AM
 #15

Warning: scale change necessary in very near future.
Notice: date is correct.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

dree12
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May 17, 2012, 02:56:26 AM
 #16

Warning: scale change necessary by tommorow.
Notice: date is incorrect once again.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Bright yellow: 2012-01-01; Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

dree12
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May 18, 2012, 03:07:08 AM
 #17

Here's the new "bubble watch" chart, with a balenced scale and beginning on April 1. Soon, the red bars will begin tumbling down; the only question now is how dramatically. It's also a bit bigger than the old one.


Chart by Dree12, Mt. Gox USD Open data from Bitcoin Charts
Magenta: mean value (linear); Y-axis (100%): no change from 365 days ago
Desaturated yellow: beginning of a month
Green/Red: increase/decrease
Bright green/red: record increase/decrease

molecular
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May 18, 2012, 10:14:07 AM
 #18

Sept 10th, but probably later

Sept 10th, but probably earlier

what's the pink line around 800%? EDIT: just read the text on the chart

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May 18, 2012, 02:59:24 PM
 #19

I'm not sure I agree with your Y-axis.  It's labeled as % change, but doesn't really represent that.  I would think what you have labeled as 100% should be 0% change, with positive and negative numbers instead of > 100 and < 100.  At the very least, the label should be changed to accurately describe what you are representing.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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proudhon
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May 18, 2012, 07:15:31 PM
 #20

I'm not sure I agree with your Y-axis.  It's labeled as % change, but doesn't really represent that.  I would think what you have labeled as 100% should be 0% change, with positive and negative numbers instead of > 100 and < 100.  At the very least, the label should be changed to accurately describe what you are representing.

I thought it kind of odd too, but I understand what he's getting at.
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