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Author Topic: Bitcoin slowly dying out?  (Read 8184 times)
inca
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October 04, 2014, 10:58:41 AM
 #21

Just look at bitcoinity. We are at the turning point. What happens next will determine the fate of bitcoin.

1. Price goes up. Renewed interest in bitcoin. Mass media attention. Influx of new users brings success to all the startups.

2. Price hovers where it is today. Mass uncertainty. Some startups will die out due to lack of growth.

3. Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides.

Mark this date on your calendar gentlemen: October 10th. For on the 11th we will have already headed down one of these paths.

Very dramatic yokosan! New users don't buy in at the depths of a bear market. It is the large speculators and traders who buy down here. The rapidly rising price of a bull run with media attention that brings users in droves using easy on ramps like Circle or possibly an ETF from their 401k's.

So I would say that you are right and bitcoin as a global currency and digital payment system is in trouble if the market cap decreases significantly and if large speculators decide not to step in this time and heavily buy the bottom. I think they will.

There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin-Qt, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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Sevvero
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October 04, 2014, 11:15:31 AM
 #22

Bitcoin is officially dead.
Ojack36
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October 04, 2014, 04:10:03 PM
 #23

I read and study the uses of bitcoin and the adaptation and everyday it is being incorporated by businesses and used by more people.

It is still going down and will quite possibly fall back to pennies because in reality it costs money to make and like the US Dollar has no intrinsic value.

When it starts costing more to create it than you can sell it for it is over I wonder how much in electrical costs one bit coin is.
marvinrouge
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October 04, 2014, 04:20:25 PM
 #24

Bitcoin is officially dead.


Bitcoin™, dead since 2011

http://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/all/
xavier
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October 04, 2014, 04:26:39 PM
 #25

Until these posts disappear with people claiming that we are at the bottom or that we are about to start a bull run, or that this crash is just like previous crashes and that we are about to start an uptrend, we are not at the bottom.

Bitcoin can go alot lower than you imagine. Regardless of the merits of the technology, it could go to zero. There doesn't seem to be any acknowledgement of that.
intighet
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October 04, 2014, 06:23:38 PM
 #26

No, it's not. This is quite normal market behavior:


I agree. Preliminary models point to the Bitcoin "super-cycle" looking like this, to be repeated many times during the price-discovery phase:



... And we are just halfway through.

Basic intuition as follows:

Bitcoin has a spectacular multi-year bull market which attracts countless speculators ("Bitcoin has always yielded positive returns YTD since its inception!"). These speculators reinforce the trend and cause the price to overshoot its underlying appreciation. Mega-bubble super-cycle reaches a dizzying peak and collapses. At a critical price point, bearish sentiment takes over and begins invalidating suspected trend-lines one by one. This causes speculators to begin to leave to market for the first time, and true fiat outflow begins. Now, it is for the first time ever. No technological asset, revolutionarily disruptive or otherwise, can consistently yield returns. Bitcoin must have a negative ROI YTD eventually. This is not the death of Bitcoin, just a large-scale variant on the smaller bubble patterns we have seen.

Malus pro bono surrepat, et bonus pro malo displiceat; fallaces enim sunt rerum species, quibus credidimus.
touhonoob
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October 09, 2014, 03:40:05 PM
 #27

Just look at bitcoinity. We are at the turning point. What happens next will determine the fate of bitcoin.

1. Price goes up. Renewed interest in bitcoin. Mass media attention. Influx of new users brings success to all the startups.

2. Price hovers where it is today. Mass uncertainty. Some startups will die out due to lack of growth.

3. Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides.

Mark this date on your calendar gentlemen: October 10th. For on the 11th we will have already headed down one of these paths.
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
600watt
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October 09, 2014, 03:45:35 PM
 #28

Just look at bitcoinity. We are at the turning point. What happens next will determine the fate of bitcoin.

1. Price goes up. Renewed interest in bitcoin. Mass media attention. Influx of new users brings success to all the startups.

2. Price hovers where it is today. Mass uncertainty. Some startups will die out due to lack of growth.

3. Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides.

Mark this date on your calendar gentlemen: October 10th. For on the 11th we will have already headed down one of these paths.
Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


you are sayin the next 24hrs are critical ?
_chance_
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October 09, 2014, 03:51:33 PM
 #29

Can't say it's dying but it's finding it's actual value after that mt.gox and other crap
hayabusa911
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October 09, 2014, 04:01:52 PM
 #30

 "Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides."

Why can't I stop laughing!?! Grin
podyx
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October 29, 2014, 12:43:38 PM
 #31

How the market has gone the last 10 months is pretty much the same of how I would expect the market to go if bitcoin were to die out. But I still cannot see how it would just die. There's just so much potential

I guess it's clutch decision soon...
podyx
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October 29, 2014, 12:45:02 PM
 #32

"Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides."

Why can't I stop laughing!?! Grin

Or... the price rise, champagne fall from the heavens, doors would open and velvet ropes would part.
Cluster2k
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October 29, 2014, 01:31:12 PM
 #33

Don't worry.  Bitcoin is not dying out.  It's just massively overbought by people salivating at the mouth at $10k, $100k, and $1M bitcoins.

Do not send bitcoins to me: 16b8s7pBJ9rUmsExNW25qD5VUqVqRPZuXu
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NotLambchop
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October 29, 2014, 01:33:13 PM
 #34

"Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides."

Why can't I stop laughing!?! Grin


galdur
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October 29, 2014, 01:40:24 PM
 #35

The same idiots that have constantly been complaining about the declining BTC price have also constantly been lending coin to shortsellers. Obviously. It has been a ballooning business all year.

labsbitforum
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October 29, 2014, 02:27:16 PM
 #36

I read and study the uses of bitcoin and the adaptation and everyday it is being incorporated by businesses and used by more people.

It is still going down and will quite possibly fall back to pennies because in reality it costs money to make and like the US Dollar has no intrinsic value.

When it starts costing more to create it than you can sell it for it is over I wonder how much in electrical costs one bit coin is.


I think break even is around $200 per coin.  Not sure, I quit mining like most months ago.

My prediction.  Bitcoin price will oscillate near break even for mining.  It will shake more and more out until we are left with just 1 or 2 chip/rig makers.  I would guess break even for mining might get to around $100 per coin.

Not the peer-to-peer network needed to make bitcoin viable. 
Soros Shorts
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October 29, 2014, 03:33:44 PM
 #37

Close your eyes and picture yourself in financial ruin

Yup, visualizing your goals is what what you should do every morning.  Roll Eyes
Kontridder
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October 29, 2014, 03:49:39 PM
 #38

If I take loans and invest 'em and this goes right, then geez... I would make alot of fuckin money (Prices are so ridicolously cheap right now)
This is the thought pattern of a pathological gambler. Stop right there sir, I'm serious.


This,
If you want some more money to invest in btc go suck some cock or sell some weed on silk road.
cypherdoc
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October 29, 2014, 04:32:03 PM
 #39

Also Stupid trolls like falllling and co. have been right all along while smart people have been wrong. Something is off.

Calm yourself podyx.

What is more likely, that this is a technical bear market following a 100x bull run being gamed by big players who are building large positions for the impending rise into the mainstream that half a billion dollars of VC funding, impending US regulation and an ETF about to be approved will bring. Or that in a sea of increasing adoption, rapidly growing infrastructure globally, growing merchant adoption, rising transactions and volumes bitcoin is suddenly dying and every single person on bitcointalk other than trolls, newbies who dont know better and technical bearish traders failed to get the memo.

The trolls are just sockpuppet accounts for traders who are short trying to exaggerate downward momentum by manipulating emotions and encouraging selling. A few posters state that influencing sentiment on this forum has no effect upon the price. I would say that manipulating the price and also manipulating sentiment on this forum in a coordinated fashion will exaggerate price movements. If there are only 300,000 to 1 million users with double digit holdings of bitcoin and only 50,000 btc on the exchanges setting the price then convincing a few hundred people with weak hands to sell could make quite a difference to the orderbooks. This is the most viewed and visited bitcoin forum on the internet I believe.

If you are getting emotional either partially or completely sell at a loss to reduce your anxiety, turn off the computer for three months or view this as a buying opportunity and purchase a greater % of the bitcoin network when you feel the price is bottoming.

The reason the quote about buying when blood is in the streets is true, is that human emotion at price extremes like this (and it may get more extreme) makes a normal person want to sell and run, also known as the fight or flight emotional response, when if they thought rationally they should be heavily accumulating. It is that irrational feeling that the price could literally fall to zero you must control. It is no surprise that the trolls are loudly calling for double digit bitcoins and the price falling to $1.

An interesting metric posted in the last few days is the top 100 bitcoin addresses and their balances. These real superwhales are not selling or reducing their coins, they are increasing them on this price weakness. Also bitcoin days destroyed have not spiked suggesting long term early adopter holdings are not being moved to exchanges or moved.

Few bitcoin bulls or holders would have predicted the severity of this bear market but what the features and potential of bitcoin that made it attractive at 400 - 1166 have not changed.

COI: Bitcoin long term holder.






well said inca.

can you update the graph of the top balances?
Melbustus
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October 29, 2014, 04:39:45 PM
 #40

And despite the severity of this bear market, we're *still* well within the "norm" of bitcoin boom-fallout percentages.

Let's phrase it this way: If the price had just gone in a straight line from where it was 1yr ago to where it is today, would you be feeling the same way?

Or would you perhaps be talking about how much infrastructure development, VC funding, financial sector interest, and big-name acceptance has happened in the past year, and how impressive that really is for this 5yr old technology?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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