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Author Topic: Flash Crash, What will it look like?  (Read 2212 times)
williamevanl
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October 04, 2014, 04:43:19 PM
 #1

Will there be some tipping point where Bitcoin flash crashes? (I feel like somewhere around 200$)
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kwukduck
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October 04, 2014, 04:45:02 PM
 #2

Seems like we're about to witness exactly that... panic seems to get a hold on people slowly :/

14b8PdeWLqK3yi3PrNHMmCvSmvDEKEBh3E
blitzbad
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October 04, 2014, 04:49:18 PM
 #3

Will there be some tipping point where Bitcoin flash crashes? (I feel like somewhere around 200$)

You have been warned by falllling since $680, should have listened!
Why bag holders are still dumping their bags in the same time they promised you an get rich quick uptrend dream? because bulls are LYING

You should start dumping too before it's too late! let's see what "good" news have we got so far:

Old:
goxed,no one with a college degree will invest any serious sums into bitcoin after MTGOX fiasco, The market is currently only a playground for gamblers and fanatics
51% pool (easy came easy gone easy return)
crackers and governments and shit having 1200k coins(mtgox 200k, Ross Ulbricht 140k, crackers: 850k)
no new money
governments warning and banning
many scam IPOs including Ethereum and others
everyone is selling / spending
Dell / Expedia / Newegg / House dealer / etc are selling in real time


New:
Winklevoss ETF will actually be shot down
GABI is already priced in but it turned out to short on bitcoin or it has failed to raise fund ($200 million is just fake)
Dubai exchange won't create any thing new
more PayPal or whatever businesses "accept" bitcoin (immediately dump it on exchanges via market sells), the more it will crash. It will crash hard because people will only use the new integration to dump all of their BTC holdings fast


So now you can see no one is getting in bitcoin and early adopters can't wait to find more new ways to cash your money out
(the fund you invested in bitcoin are vanishing because who fooling you to buy in are taking your money away via Exchanger/Payment Service/All those "good" news bitcoin accepting companies etc, same as a ponzi pyramid scheme)

what's coming are more dumps and will lead bitcoin to it's final capitulation, so do NOT buy in any fake recovers or you will lose your money, if you already have bitcoin bags then cut looses before it goes back to $0.01!

remember few weeks ago the dead cat bounce reached $530? today people are happy even without breaking $400, this time drop back to $300 can be expected

You have been warned since $680 !
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=758244 $476
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713671 $510
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=698224 $580
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665200 $590
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=650517 $600
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=649261 $620

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2014-07-01&e=2014-10-05&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=1&s=2013-12-01&e=2014-10-05&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

https://i.imgur.com/LL6QD2P.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/F7v3lBx.png
DeadCoin
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October 04, 2014, 04:50:00 PM
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Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 04:56:02 PM
 #5






Is that the 2011 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 133x in the subsequent cycle)?

Or is that the April 2013 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 24x in the subsequent cycle)?

Could also be the most recent boom/bust. They all look the same.


Anyways, that is indeed a nice chart to describe each individual boom/bust cycle since 2010. After every time, thusfar, price has subsequently jumped at least an order of magnitude. I assume your point was to imply the correlation of a localized price pattern that looks like that chart, and subsequent 1000% price gains. Right?

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gizmoh
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October 04, 2014, 05:03:25 PM
 #6

No its not this $325 low , not enough volume IMO! More pain to come  Undecided

How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
blitzbad
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October 04, 2014, 05:04:11 PM
 #7



Is that the 2011 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 133x in the subsequent cycle)?

Or is that the April 2013 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 24x in the subsequent cycle)?

Could also be the most recent boom/bust. They all look the same.


Anyways, that is indeed a nice chart to describe each individual boom/bust cycle since 2010. After every time, thusfar, price has subsequently jumped at least an order of magnitude. I assume your point was to imply the correlation of a localized price pattern that looks like that chart, and subsequent 1000% price gains. Right?

we are down to the All time low for one year now and will hit ATL for two years soon, that's the answer
Xiaoxiao
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October 04, 2014, 05:10:31 PM
 #8

you guys need to understand that ALL previous patterns of BTC are void here, because MTGOX was the lead exchange, which had tons of fraud and manipulation involved.
Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 05:21:38 PM
 #9

you guys need to understand that ALL previous patterns of BTC are void here, because MTGOX was the lead exchange, which had tons of fraud and manipulation involved.


And you short-term thinking mostly technical bears need to understand that nothing has changed about the long-run fundamentals of bitcoin's potential or trajectory. There's been almost entirely continued support for the long-run bull-case in terms of continued ecosystem development. Honestly, the pace of recognition and development has even exceeded my original bull-case assumptions from 2011/2012. I personally don't pay much mind to the short-term price, choosing instead to value bitcoin more fundamentally and look at Mr. Market like Ben Graham did.


tldr: Even if you're right that Gox borked the price (highly debatable), the long-run bull thesis has still only gained support over time.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
BTCtrader71
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October 04, 2014, 05:37:52 PM
 #10

you guys need to understand that ALL previous patterns of BTC are void here, because MTGOX was the lead exchange, which had tons of fraud and manipulation involved.

So, your narrative depends on the assumption that fraud and manipulation disappeared with the collapse of gox and are gone forever ... ?

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
twiifm
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October 04, 2014, 06:05:58 PM
 #11

you guys need to understand that ALL previous patterns of BTC are void here, because MTGOX was the lead exchange, which had tons of fraud and manipulation involved.


And you short-term thinking mostly technical bears need to understand that nothing has changed about the long-run fundamentals of bitcoin's potential or trajectory. There's been almost entirely continued support for the long-run bull-case in terms of continued ecosystem development. Honestly, the pace of recognition and development has even exceeded my original bull-case assumptions from 2011/2012. I personally don't pay much mind to the short-term price, choosing instead to value bitcoin more fundamentally and look at Mr. Market like Ben Graham did.


tldr: Even if you're right that Gox borked the price (highly debatable), the long-run bull thesis has still only gained support over time.

Bitcoin has no fundamentals.  Only speculation

Fundamentals need to show some earnings or revenue aspect

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Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 06:25:01 PM
 #12

you guys need to understand that ALL previous patterns of BTC are void here, because MTGOX was the lead exchange, which had tons of fraud and manipulation involved.


And you short-term thinking mostly technical bears need to understand that nothing has changed about the long-run fundamentals of bitcoin's potential or trajectory. There's been almost entirely continued support for the long-run bull-case in terms of continued ecosystem development. Honestly, the pace of recognition and development has even exceeded my original bull-case assumptions from 2011/2012. I personally don't pay much mind to the short-term price, choosing instead to value bitcoin more fundamentally and look at Mr. Market like Ben Graham did.


tldr: Even if you're right that Gox borked the price (highly debatable), the long-run bull thesis has still only gained support over time.

Bitcoin has no fundamentals.  Only speculation

Fundamentals need to show some earnings or revenue aspect


False.

You certainly cannot treat bitcoin like a stock or bond, but you can treat it like a currency and look at velocity within the system, and what the capitalization needs to be in order to support the value of commerce being done on it. The speculation comes in when thinking about what commercial activity will be done via bitcoin in the future, just like a big component of a stock's price is speculation as to what revenue streams the company will secure in the future.

I agree with your implied assertion that analysis of bitcoin's fair-value involves far more uncertainty than with most equities or bonds, but your equally implied assertion that one cannot build a rational quantitative framework for valuing bitcoin is false.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
zimmah
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October 04, 2014, 08:10:53 PM
 #13






Is that the 2011 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 133x in the subsequent cycle)?

Or is that the April 2013 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 24x in the subsequent cycle)?

Could also be the most recent boom/bust. They all look the same.


Anyways, that is indeed a nice chart to describe each individual boom/bust cycle since 2010. After every time, thusfar, price has subsequently jumped at least an order of magnitude. I assume your point was to imply the correlation of a localized price pattern that looks like that chart, and subsequent 1000% price gains. Right?

Please don't feed the troll

It's quite obvious it's falling


I think a flash crash may happen, but I am not sure if it will and how much it will be.

It might even happen only on some exchanges and not on others. Maybe even in some currencies and not in others. So you have to be pretty lucky to catch the low in a flash crash. I would not gamble too much money on it.
Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 08:11:57 PM
 #14






Is that the 2011 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 133x in the subsequent cycle)?

Or is that the April 2013 boom/bust (after which the price climbed 24x in the subsequent cycle)?

Could also be the most recent boom/bust. They all look the same.


Anyways, that is indeed a nice chart to describe each individual boom/bust cycle since 2010. After every time, thusfar, price has subsequently jumped at least an order of magnitude. I assume your point was to imply the correlation of a localized price pattern that looks like that chart, and subsequent 1000% price gains. Right?

Please don't feed the troll

It's quite obvious it's falling


True. I'm done. Smiley

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
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