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Author Topic: Guess my baby's sex!  (Read 4223 times)
Ian Maxwell
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May 18, 2011, 03:21:27 PM
 #21

Guys, this may be the last day! My wife and I are going for her 20-week checkup today (a bit late). They haven't actually said we're getting an ultrasound today, but they haven't said we aren't, either. So if you want to place a bet, best do so now!

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abyssobenthonic
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May 19, 2011, 01:04:54 AM
 #22

Well the payout should be close to double-or-nothing if there are enough bets.  It's be easy to tell if the fix was in.  Unfortunately not until after the event.

Not necessarily.  If too many people bet on one side, I bet new betters would take the other.  So you make your bets early enough that it evens out by people trying to get a "better" deal, then it doesn't look suspicious.

That's if he publishes running bet totals.  If he doesn't, then the typical bettor would have no idea of which side is underbet.

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May 19, 2011, 01:12:57 AM
 #23

^^ shhhh... don't anyone tell this guy about the block chain Wink

Ian Maxwell
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May 19, 2011, 05:07:37 AM
 #24

Well, it wasn't today, but it should be some time next week. We'll probably be told the date of our ultrasound appointment tomorrow.

doood is right: you can just use BlockExplorer to see the running totals. Here are all the boy bets and girl bets. (Note that I accidentally used a previously-used address for the boy bets, as the transaction record shows...)

As you can see, not much activity... at this rate, my cut is 0.13, and that's assuming the books balance themselves out before the end.

This hasn't gotten very much of a response at all, so I'll just point out that at the moment the books are unbalanced! There's a total of 0.1 riding on "boy" vs. 1.25 riding on "girl". Someone ought to come in and balance this out and make a positive expected profit in the process!

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May 19, 2011, 05:58:21 AM
 #25

I'm the one that bet 1 btc on it being a girl... at this point by the current rules I stand to lose 0.038 btc even if it is a girl!

Let's hope others come to the party and even up the sides Smiley

Anyway, you'll be able to spend your profits on 0.0004 of a disposable nappy.

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May 25, 2011, 12:45:48 AM
 #26

^^ shhhh... don't anyone tell this guy about the block chain Wink


That's why unique addresses are a must Wink

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Ian Maxwell
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May 25, 2011, 01:49:27 AM
 #27

Books are currently at 0.4 to 1.25...

And we're finding out around 18:30 (UTC)! I'll wait until midnight to post the answer, though.

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May 25, 2011, 03:26:34 AM
 #28

F+M twins ? Smiley
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May 25, 2011, 08:55:33 AM
 #29

F+M twins ? Smiley
Yeah, what the fuck will happen then? Tongue

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May 25, 2011, 09:00:17 AM
 #30

50:50

Klaus Alexander Seistrup
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Ian Maxwell
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May 25, 2011, 11:39:59 AM
 #31

D'oh. Is there a "don't send from this address" option somewhere in the client?

Counting up just the "received" totals since this thread started, it's now 1.29:1.25. So nearly even.

Ian Maxwell
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May 26, 2011, 03:48:58 AM
 #32

It's a boy!

Winnings will be distributed as soon as I can figure out how sendmany works.

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May 26, 2011, 07:37:04 AM
 #33

It's a boy!

Congratulations!

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May 26, 2011, 07:40:17 AM
 #34

It's a boy!
Bitcoin’s gender distribution had to stay intact, after all. Grin

Congrats.

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Ian Maxwell
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May 26, 2011, 03:39:59 PM
 #35

All right, forget sendmany, I just sent out a bunch of separate transactions.

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May 27, 2011, 02:17:53 AM
 #36

Received my 0.08 bitcoins. I had bet 0.05 on boy and girl...

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Ian Maxwell
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May 27, 2011, 02:56:55 AM
 #37

Received my 0.08 bitcoins. I had bet 0.05 on boy and girl...
Well, it was really unlikely you'd make money that way. You were basically not betting on the outcome, but rather meta-betting that the books would be lopsided by well more than 2:1. They weren't very lopsided, so you lost.

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May 27, 2011, 06:07:10 AM
 #38


All right, forget sendmany, I just sent out a bunch of separate transactions.

The sendmany() doesn't look that hard:

Code:

$ bitcoind help | grep ^sendmany
sendmany <fromaccount> {address:amount,...} [minconf=1] [comment]
$


I bet on a boy and have received my prize.  Thanks!

Cheers,

Klaus Alexander Seistrup
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Ian Maxwell
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May 27, 2011, 06:43:46 AM
 #39

The sendmany() doesn't look that hard:

It doesn't, does it? But I tried typing it in two or three different ways and got an error each time.

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May 27, 2011, 06:48:32 AM
 #40

The sendmany() doesn't look that hard:

It doesn't, does it? But I tried typing it in two or three different ways and got an error each time.

What tripped me up doing it in php was that I had to put (float) just before the send amount.

$bitcoin->sendfrom($account,$addr,(float)$amount);

Haven't tried sendmany yet.

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