For the bulls

[lophie]

I did not expect this from an old member like ElectricMucus.... But here it goes:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster

The easiest way to argue this is that we also consume electricity to operate and run other money transfer systems. It is unfair to pinpoint "an ecological disaster" to Bitcoin ignoring the multitudes of power consumption other systems do (Be fair and extend this power usage to all facilities and personnel consumption whenever they have a "role" in these systems). Bitcoin is designed to be different, not perfect. this is the real world not a Utopia.

-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.

And what is the current incentive? if you want to point at block subsidy you forgot the transaction fees and bitcoin exchange rate. The transactions were being relayed when they worth nothing.

-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

Old old idea. Got shattered by the FBI report and Germany public statement regarding Bitcoin. Face it Bitcoin protocol spits on the face of censorship. They will feel offended for a while before opening up to it.

[1714698927]

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[institutionaltrader]

I have a question for the bulls... I am not falling, or any other "troll" account. But i have a few points for the bulls and i was wondering if you could counter them...

Points
- The winklevoss etf will actually be shot down
- just kidding im not doing that



Serious points
- Miners dumping thousands of BTC a day
- A lot of people say, that the only reason BTC hit 1k+ was because of the willy bot. Not to mention there was actually proof of the willy bot on mt gox.
prior to the willy bot, btc wasnt over 250. What if right now, the dust is settling and BTC is returning to what it should naturally be. Which means right now, BTC is currently overpriced
- Merchants convert BTC to USD instantly

And i think it is funny. I was like everyone on this forum a few months ago. I would look at a fallllling thread and laugh, not only at the grammatical errors, but also his crazy predictions. However, he and all the other "trolls" here, have been correct. Maybe they didnt get the time frames right, but they sure did get the prices right. and they can come back, and warn us some more, but we probably wont listen. But the price keeps falllling...

-Miners gotta make money, gotta pay bills.. Nothing we ca do about that.
-btc hit $1000 due to mass panic buying and media coverage.
-Not all, Overstock keeps some for the long term.


As a BTC bull, I'd like to remind you that this is the last time you're gonna see this type of swings. The early adopters/market manipulators have one last go at it. Once the ETF launches we wont be talking about little money like we are today. Today its easy to move the market around with a few million bucks. Think about how hard it going to be be though once that ETF hits. Now were talking aboutevery financial market around the world having a vehicle to invest in bitcoin. One that's safe, trusted and regulated. I'm talking about trillion dollar markets being able to cash out a bit and hedge in btc.


Bitcoin to the moon fellas.....

The ETF won't do anything to the underlying asset. If they are buying their BTC via exchanges, you have exactly the same risks than buying BTC directly and no one will help you if anything goes wrong.

[testerx]

I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.

[sgbett]

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

[Bobsurplus]

I have a question for the bulls... I am not falling, or any other "troll" account. But i have a few points for the bulls and i was wondering if you could counter them...

Points
- The winklevoss etf will actually be shot down
- just kidding im not doing that



Serious points
- Miners dumping thousands of BTC a day
- A lot of people say, that the only reason BTC hit 1k+ was because of the willy bot. Not to mention there was actually proof of the willy bot on mt gox.
prior to the willy bot, btc wasnt over 250. What if right now, the dust is settling and BTC is returning to what it should naturally be. Which means right now, BTC is currently overpriced
- Merchants convert BTC to USD instantly

And i think it is funny. I was like everyone on this forum a few months ago. I would look at a fallllling thread and laugh, not only at the grammatical errors, but also his crazy predictions. However, he and all the other "trolls" here, have been correct. Maybe they didnt get the time frames right, but they sure did get the prices right. and they can come back, and warn us some more, but we probably wont listen. But the price keeps falllling...

-Miners gotta make money, gotta pay bills.. Nothing we ca do about that.
-btc hit $1000 due to mass panic buying and media coverage.
-Not all, Overstock keeps some for the long term.


As a BTC bull, I'd like to remind you that this is the last time you're gonna see this type of swings. The early adopters/market manipulators have one last go at it. Once the ETF launches we wont be talking about little money like we are today. Today its easy to move the market around with a few million bucks. Think about how hard it going to be be though once that ETF hits. Now were talking aboutevery financial market around the world having a vehicle to invest in bitcoin. One that's safe, trusted and regulated. I'm talking about trillion dollar markets being able to cash out a bit and hedge in btc.


Bitcoin to the moon fellas.....

The ETF won't do anything to the underlying asset. If they are buying their BTC via exchanges, you have exactly the same risks than buying BTC directly and no one will help you if anything goes wrong.

You dont know what you're talking about. Leave now please and let the serious investors talk.

[porcupine87]

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

[sgbett]

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

[FUR11]

Well, someone is always right with their predictions, in these bear markets, it's falllling and his sockpuppets... In a couple months or years, they won't be right anymore, that's the way things go! We stayed at these prices, even if the Willy bot was off for months already, I wouldn't expect too much of it, to be honest!

[fewcoins]

Well, someone is always right with their predictions, in these bear markets, it's falllling and his sockpuppets... In a couple months or years, they won't be right anymore, that's the way things go! We stayed at these prices, even if the Willy bot was off for months already, I wouldn't expect too much of it, to be honest!

Actually that is your only hope... Have you ever considered this might actually be a market top?! 

[DeadCoin]

I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.

We'll all be rich!  

[tinof]

Down trend didn't stop with the brief recovery.

Price chart still painting all over the place in the last 12 hours.

[mmortal03]

One doesn't have to think that climate change is a superstition to argue against the idea that bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster.

I'm all ears.

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI

[fewcoins]

I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.

We'll all be rich!  

LMFAO! Because you really know better than an insider who is dumping over $7mil in coins!!! Keep loading up.......

[ElectricMucus]

One doesn't have to think that climate change is a superstition to argue against the idea that bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster.

I'm all ears.

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI

Thanks, that's a little boring to watch since I already know what to response (I watched the prior chat about the conclusions and a little of the talk itself)

He's making one fatal error in his assessment: Bitcoin mining scales linearly with market cap.
The amount of value representing Gold & Fiat Money aren't considered in his comparisons, but they should.

The ecology should be represented in value per energy not absolute energy. The amount of value both in market cap and transaction value is so much higher with Gold and Fiat money that it distorts the conclusions he makes. I also don't think that energy efficacy will improve to that extent (it won't tend to zero if Bitcoin remains important). So far the power consumption has been increasing linearly with market price and more efficient machines simply did only offset it during the transition with even higher power consumption overall in the long run.
I'd like to see a trend of power efficiency in [Transactions/Joule] and see where that is headed. I doubt you can extrapolate an asymptotic trend. I think it's linear perhaps slightly logarithmic.

The last point is you wouldn't want to exclude the manufacturing costs of mining equipment nor the cost of exchange infrastructure if you compare it to the operational costs of banks.

[CryptoCarmen]

I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.

We'll all be rich!  

Yess buy Buy buy!

[porcupine87]

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

sure, sure. I am aware of the probabilities. It doesn't matter in that respect. Compare to get 1% of the hashing power will cost you 1000$ or 1billion $. What is more secure? On the other hand the dollar investment will always get determined by the expected return. At $300 $1.1mio get created every day. So running the miners will not cost more than 1.1Mio. So if the price 10fold it is likely that mining will cost 10times more.

So efficiency doesn't solve that problem. Mining today is much more efficient compared to 2011 but much more electricity gets used.

[Elwar]

Don't use new technology...

cuz the environment

[cbeast]

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

sure, sure. I am aware of the probabilities. It doesn't matter in that respect. Compare to get 1% of the hashing power will cost you 1000$ or 1billion $. What is more secure? On the other hand the dollar investment will always get determined by the expected return. At $300 $1.1mio get created every day. So running the miners will not cost more than 1.1Mio. So if the price 10fold it is likely that mining will cost 10times more.

So efficiency doesn't solve that problem. Mining today is much more efficient compared to 2011 but much more electricity gets used.

How much energy used is irrelevant because e=mc² or because volcanos or because sunshine.

[Markos]

This bear rally has a major advantage - after some months you can buy cheap bitcoins from bagholders for double digits price I'm waiting patiently for the collapse of the 2011 log-linear trendline A new ATH will be within a few years, after despair phase

[fewcoins]

This bear rally has a major advantage - after some months you can buy cheap bitcoins from bagholders for double digits price I'm waiting patiently for the collapse of the 2011 log-linear trendline A new ATH will be within a few years, after despair phase

Another major advantage is everyone who is selling now can buy back double their coins at a later time! Also traders seem to be making a killing shorting this thing down