FAO dropt: MatTheCat's call for $200 range comes to fruition

[MatTheCat]

Hiya dropt!

Still kicking around here? Well, I seem to remember being absolutely fucking ridiculed for my long term prediction of Bitcoin hitting the $200 range.

I have your post (the one, ridiculing me for calling a penultimate correction down into $200 range) bookmarked on my home desktop, waiting on this day that I felt certain was coming. Granted, I also thought at one point Bitcoin would get up to $800 range before the Wave C kicked in. Turns out it didn't and I lost yet more money betting on it (the last money I shall ever pour into the bottomless pit known as Bitcoin. Bitcoin is obvioulsy a much weaker more overbought market than even I thought. And now that we have smashed into that $270 April 2013 ATH with a massive sell-off....I can't really say that I see much of a rebound occurring. More likely is that all the buyers of dem 'cheap coins' will soon realise that upper $200s was not a good buy-in point at all and will thus seek to preserve their wealth by SELLING!

I am currently at sea just now but will get back to my home PC sometime next week and will be sure to remind you of your rather unsage comments.

But until then, here is a big FU 2 U!

[Omikifuse]

So what are the predictions for the future?

Sub 100 level? Or will we recover?

[Hyena]

Even though I enjoy high prices I also enjoy low prices and all the suffering it brings for instance, many miners will get below the water. I remember people massively buying into bitcoin when it first reached 500$. I got strangers asking OTC coins in Facebook because they somehow found out that I'm a bitcoin believer. I personally have a very high pain threshold and in the beginning of September I had a dream of BTC trading at 150$ while falling. I'm not selling because I don't care about money and profit that much, it's too much of a hassle to go dig up the cold storage.

To all the bears whose predictions are now coming to truth: yes, you were right. now what?

[rebel24]

Your post lost me at the point where you started to talk shit on bitcoin. You can talk shit on the price, but the technology? Think again. This is the future whether you like it or not. And until a better blockchain technology overtakes bitcoin(or dogecoin or otherwise), you can expect adoption to increase, userbase to increase, and thus the fundamental drivers behind the price to increase, gradually and constantly increasing buying pressure(and thus the price) (over the time frame of years, not day-to-day crashes or booms)

[MatTheCat]

So what are the predictions for the future?

Sub 100 level? Or will we recover?

Don't know.

Don't care about Bitcoin anymore. Haven't been following it so much. Won't even consider investing in it UNTIL the market has shown to have clearly stablised. If that means I end up buying back at prices well above $200 range then that is fine.

The pundit who has called Bitcoin market remarkably well has been DanV.

Go and google him and watch his YouTube videos.....he would have the long term support line down at the upper $100 range (and has had it there even back when Bitcoin was still firmly in the upper excesses of bubble territory)

Your post lost me at the point where you started to talk shit on bitcoin. You can talk shit on the price, but the technology? Think again. This is the future whether you like it or not. And until a better blockchain technology overtakes bitcoin(or dogecoin or otherwise), you can except adoption to increase, userbase to increase, and thus the fundamental drivers behind the price to increase, gradually and constantly increasing buying pressure(and thus the price) (over the time frame of years, not day-to-day crashes or booms)

I talk shit on Bitcoin because it is an emotional subject.

I bet there are a lot of Bitcoin 'lovers' who are in the process of turning into Bitcoin haters as we speak. Of course, it isn't the technology that they are really hating, it is the demon of Speculation that they are hating on. Bitcoin in itself is rendered guilty by association.

Besides. What if the market drives the price of Bitcoin so low, and keeps so low, that the miners are forced to turn off their equipment thus killing the network, thus killing Bitcoin?

That is a real possibility from what I understand.

[epilido]

So what are the predictions for the future?

Sub 100 level? Or will we recover?

Don't know.

Don't care about Bitcoin anymore. Haven't been following it so much. Won't even consider investing in it UNTIL the market has shown to have clearly stablised. If that means I end up buying back at prices well above $200 range then that is fine.

The pundit who has called Bitcoin market remarkably well has been DanV.

Go and google him and watch his YouTube videos.....he would have the long term support line down at the upper $100 range (and has had it there even back when Bitcoin was still firmly in the upper excesses of bubble territory)

Yeah right you care enough to follow it so you can post with in hours of changes.......

It was much nicer around here without you wailing all of the time.

Please stay at sea.

[MatTheCat]

Yeah right you care enough to follow it so you can post with in hours of changes.......

It was much nicer around here without you wailing all of the time.

Please stay at sea.

I generally keep abreast of the price action, and nothing further.

[uhoh]

Yeah right you care enough to follow it so you can post with in hours of changes.......

It was much nicer around here without you wailing all of the time.

Please stay at sea.

I generally keep abreast of the price action, and nothing further.

You seem unable to make money regardless of the direction of the market. Don't start trying to blame everyone else for the fact that you lost money trading, take some responsibility for your failures instead of putting your tinfoil hat on again. Manipulated market? sure. Volatile? fact. Crap at trading and therefore shouldn't bother? Check.

[MatTheCat]

You seem unable to make money regardless of the direction of the market. Don't start trying to blame everyone else for the fact that you lost money trading, take some responsibility for your failures instead of putting your tinfoil hat on again. Manipulated market? sure. Volatile? fact. Crap at trading and therefore shouldn't bother? Check.

Precisely.

Therefore I withdraw my meagre capital from the market, just as everyone else in a similar boat to me does, leaving less and less profits for the 'pro traders' to reap, which means that the 'not so pro traders' amongst the pro traders are then required to feel the sting of the market in order that the more skilled traders can profit. These relatively lesser traders then withdraw their funds from market, leaving less funds from the remaining traders to profit from......wash rinse repeat.....and you have a brutal bear market that ends not in a bang, but an apathetic whimper.

[sgbett]

You seem unable to make money regardless of the direction of the market. Don't start trying to blame everyone else for the fact that you lost money trading, take some responsibility for your failures instead of putting your tinfoil hat on again. Manipulated market? sure. Volatile? fact. Crap at trading and therefore shouldn't bother? Check.

Precisely.

Therefore I withdraw my meagre capital from the market, just as everyone else in a similar boat to me does, leaving less and less profits for the 'pro traders' to reap, which means that the 'not so pro traders' amongst the pro traders are then required to feel the sting of the market in order that the more skilled traders can profit. These relatively lesser traders then withdraw their funds from market, leaving less funds from the remaining traders to profit from......wash rinse repeat.....and you have a brutal bear market that ends not in a bang, but an apathetic whimper.

Not trading doesn't mean going all out! Tell me you aren't all out!?

[MatTheCat]

Not trading doesn't mean going all out! Tell me you aren't all out!?

Of course it means going 'all out'.

My first speculative Bitcoins were purchased in $600 range back in Nov 2013. The very last speculative Bitcoins I bought were bought in the $600 range back in June 2014. Why the hell would I be wanting to hold anything that I bought for over $600, when it is now worth just $300 and going down lower 4 sure?

Bitcoin isn't some tangible time tested asset like gold or silver. I can handle being down on precious metals, cos they are precious metals that I own, and I have, in a little box hidden somewhere that only I know about. If I am ever unfortunate enough to have live through a period when 'money fails' (USD crash), then at least I still have some precious metals. Precious metals have established their place in the human collective psyche as being 'valuable', since thousands of years. Precious metals are also highly portable, rare, attractive, and both have (especially silver) vitally important industrial uses. Bitcoins are nothing but vapour. Bitcoins are a confidence game and for that confidence game to work, that would involve the 'specifications' of the algorithm being perfectly calibrated from it's very beginnings, before anyone could have possibly known what lay ahead for Bitcoin.

U seem like a scientific type. U will know that in engineering projects, it usually takes a few attempts in calibrating any equipment for any project, let alone one as complex and as subject to metaphysical forces as a digital currency. How likely is it that Bitcoin was 'perfectly calibrated' from the start?

Had I still had that 177 BTC I bought for $5 a pop back in early 2012, for example, then I might feel ok about holding 50 BTC or so. But otherwise............

..........fuck dat shit!

[fewcoins]

Not trading doesn't mean going all out! Tell me you aren't all out!?

Of course it means going 'all out'.

My first speculative Bitcoins were purchased in $600 range back in Nov 2013. The very last speculative Bitcoins I bought were bought in the $600 range back in June 2014. Why the hell would I be wanting to hold anything that I bought for over $600, when it is now worth just $300 and going down lower 4 sure?

Bitcoin isn't some tangible time tested asset like gold or silver. I can handle being down on precious metals, cos they are precious metals that I own, and I have, in a little box hidden somewhere that only I know about. If I am ever unfortunate enough to have live through a period when 'money fails' (USD crash), then at least I still have some precious metals. Precious metals have established their place in the human collective psyche as being 'valuable', since thousands of years. Precious metals are also highly portable, rare, attractive, and both have (especially silver) vitally important industrial uses. Bitcoins are nothing but vapour. Bitcoins are a confidence game and for that confidence game to work, that would involve the 'specifications' of the algorithm being perfectly calibrated from it's very beginnings, before anyone could have possibly known what lay ahead for Bitcoin.

U seem like a scientific type. U will know that in engineering projects, it usually takes a few attempts in calibrating any equipment for any project, let alone one as complex and as subject to metaphysical forces as a digital currency. How likely is it that Bitcoin was 'perfectly calibrated' from the start?

Had I still had that 177 BTC I bought for $5 a pop back in early 2012, for example, then I might feel ok about holding 50 BTC or so. But otherwise............

..........fuck dat shit!

Finally!! Someone who makes sense! Even if you are a firm believer in bitcoin, this is a great opportunity to sell & buy back later for many many more coins!!!

[BittBurger]

I have your post (the one, ridiculing me for calling a penultimate correction down into $200 range) bookmarked on my home desktop, waiting on this day that I felt certain was coming.

You had a 50% chance of being right and a 50% chance of being wrong. 

Therefore it is logically impossible for you to take any credit for being right. 

Aside from the fact that you can't predict the future, your prediction was no different or more informed than the guy who predicted it would go up.

-B-

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Elliott wave theory just doesn't really work on BTC markets, forget about it.
I know you are an adept of DanV, but despite knowing what he's talking about, that guy uses complicated tools that just don't predict much.



Zoom out the chart. Watch closely "the big picture". Use simple trend lines, fibonacci, wedges, big triangles to spot breakout/breakdown points.
When you have the big picture in mind, watch closely what's happening short term and decide what to do.

Watch for:
1. Depth chart at all exchanges (and how it keeps changing)
2. Trade history in real time
3. Volume



(and if you're playing on Margin, always have tight stop losses, never start bagholding a leveraged margin position).

That's it, that's how you trade BTC/USD. This is how you'll understand what the price will probably do in the immediate future and how you can profit from it whether it goes up (buying/holding/ going long), or goes down (selling/staying in fiat waiting/shorting).

You don't need fancy indicators that simply never give efficient self-fulfilling prophecies that fibonacci or long term trend lines provide.



MarTheCat, don't quit trading, I'm sure one day everything will finally go "click" and you'll finally "get it".
BTC markets are actually quite easy once you use the necessary tools only (and forget about the redundant ones).

[BusyBeaverHP]

Not trading doesn't mean going all out! Tell me you aren't all out!?

U seem like a scientific type. U will know that in engineering projects, it usually takes a few attempts in calibrating any equipment for any project, let alone one as complex and as subject to metaphysical forces as a digital currency. How likely is it that Bitcoin was 'perfectly calibrated' from the start?

Bitcoin was never perfect from the start. Remember the bug in 2010 that allowed for network generation of 184 billion BTC? Or the unexpected hardfork of 2013? Bitcoin didn't die. Five years of continuous open-source calibration and real-world testing and it's withstood the test so far.

Looking at the bigger picture, bitcoin wasn't even the first of this type of project. Those would arguably belong to ecash and E-gold.

At the end of the day, bitcoin is still an experiment and investing in it is still a gamble.

With all things considered, it's a gamble I'm willing to put money behind because I wager that the cryptography and decentralization will overcome any short-term market movement in the greater scheme of things.

[akujin]

Dropt is a retard... Why are you wasting your time on that moron   

[sgbett]

Not trading doesn't mean going all out! Tell me you aren't all out!?

Of course it means going 'all out'.

My first speculative Bitcoins were purchased in $600 range back in Nov 2013. The very last speculative Bitcoins I bought were bought in the $600 range back in June 2014. Why the hell would I be wanting to hold anything that I bought for over $600, when it is now worth just $300 and going down lower 4 sure?

Bitcoin isn't some tangible time tested asset like gold or silver. I can handle being down on precious metals, cos they are precious metals that I own, and I have, in a little box hidden somewhere that only I know about. If I am ever unfortunate enough to have live through a period when 'money fails' (USD crash), then at least I still have some precious metals. Precious metals have established their place in the human collective psyche as being 'valuable', since thousands of years. Precious metals are also highly portable, rare, attractive, and both have (especially silver) vitally important industrial uses. Bitcoins are nothing but vapour. Bitcoins are a confidence game and for that confidence game to work, that would involve the 'specifications' of the algorithm being perfectly calibrated from it's very beginnings, before anyone could have possibly known what lay ahead for Bitcoin.

U seem like a scientific type. U will know that in engineering projects, it usually takes a few attempts in calibrating any equipment for any project, let alone one as complex and as subject to metaphysical forces as a digital currency. How likely is it that Bitcoin was 'perfectly calibrated' from the start?

Had I still had that 177 BTC I bought for $5 a pop back in early 2012, for example, then I might feel ok about holding 50 BTC or so. But otherwise............

..........fuck dat shit!

Finally!! Someone who makes sense! Even if you are a firm believer in bitcoin, this is a great opportunity to sell & buy back later for many many more coins!!!

That's trading, herp.

In answer to your q though mat how likely? I dunno, but let's say "a bit" so surely the safest (least risk) option is to hold (proportionally) a bit. The only reason that you would hold none, is if you thought there was zero chance. I'm not sure probability works that way. The black swans are what lose people money. Bitcoin being a success and going to da moon *is* black swan. Especially back in the day. I think the smart move is to hedge against that. The ins and outs of "by how much" is personal.

[sgbett]

And nice to see you back, good to have a proper bull/bear debate instead of all the copy pasta crap of late!

[protokol]

Lol you're such an idiot. You make a post saying "fuck you" to someone because your bearish prediction came true, and in the same post you admit that you lost even more money. Haha, as someone who has regularly shown off about shorting Bitcoin, you must be able to see how ridiculous that is, right?

Also please stop using text speak in otherwise properly written posts, it's not funny or ironic, it's pretentious and annoying.

Now please fuck off and go lose some more money, cheers!  

[criptix]

hi mat, you did good in selling around 600
but i think it's a good time to give bitcoin another chance now