Mainstream merchant adoption leads do declining Bitcoin price?

[BTCmoons]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

According to blockchain.inf/markets, bitstamp has ~$9.5 million in trades in the last 24 hours, with bitcoin trading at ~$400, that works out to ~24k bitcoin in the last 24 hours. The amount mined per day is roughly 15% of that figure. Taking away 15% of the supply of a product would almost always have an impact on the price

[odolvlobo]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

According to blockchain.inf/markets, bitstamp has ~$9.5 million in trades in the last 24 hours, with bitcoin trading at ~$400, that works out to ~24k bitcoin in the last 24 hours. The amount mined per day is roughly 15% of that figure. Taking away 15% of the supply of a product would almost always have an impact on the price

According to Bitcoinity (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list), the total traded in the last 24 hours on all exchanges was 484k. Bitstamp's 25k is a little more than 5% of the total exchange volume. 3600 BTC is only 0.75% of the total exchange volume, and don't forget that 3600 assumes that all mined bitcoins are sold.

Anyway, my point is not that the price is unaffected by newly mined bitcoins. Of course it is. It's basic inflation of the money supply. I just don't think it is the major cause of the steep decline over the last 9 months.

Mining has increased the number of Bitcoins over the last year from about 12 million to about 13.5 million. The increase is about 13%, so from a mathematical standpoint, inflation can account for only a decline in the price by about 11%.

[SomethingElse]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

It is one thing to trade the same coin back and forward for profit. Quite another to add 3600 coins into the circulation everyday.

Many might be sold off exchange as just dumping that many coins is dangerous. Still.... Even if a discount is given, it's more than a million dollars a day, somedays two or three.

In someways this might keep the price of Bitcoin from going to high.

I always thought of it as 0.00006 percent difference each day which to me meant basically nothing.  But when you say 1-3 million a day, that sticks pretty hard.

[SomethingElse]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

It is one thing to trade the same coin back and forward for profit. Quite another to add 3600 coins into the circulation everyday.

Many might be sold off exchange as just dumping that many coins is dangerous. Still.... Even if a discount is given, it's more than a million dollars a day, somedays two or three.

In someways this might keep the price of Bitcoin from going to high.

I always thought of it as 0.00006 percent difference each day which to me meant basically nothing.  But when you say 1-3 million a day, that sticks pretty hard.

I double checked, the block reward is currently 25 and that means 3600 bitcoins come into play a day.  By the end of next year though that will half to 1800 and I think that might help the system as a whole.  Not sure though. 

[pitham1]

I double checked, the block reward is currently 25 and that means 3600 bitcoins come into play a day.  By the end of next year though that will half to 1800 and I think that might help the system as a whole.  Not sure though. 

The block reward drop is 2 years away.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

[WeGotCactus]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

According to blockchain.inf/markets, bitstamp has ~$9.5 million in trades in the last 24 hours, with bitcoin trading at ~$400, that works out to ~24k bitcoin in the last 24 hours. The amount mined per day is roughly 15% of that figure. Taking away 15% of the supply of a product would almost always have an impact on the price

According to Bitcoinity (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list), the total traded in the last 24 hours on all exchanges was 484k. Bitstamp's 25k is a little more than 5% of the total exchange volume. 3600 BTC is only 0.75% of the total exchange volume, and don't forget that 3600 assumes that all mined bitcoins are sold.

Anyway, my point is not that the price is unaffected by newly mined bitcoins. Of course it is. It's basic inflation of the money supply. I just don't think it is the major cause of the steep decline over the last 9 months.

Mining has increased the number of Bitcoins over the last year from about 12 million to about 13.5 million. The increase is about 13%, so from a mathematical standpoint, inflation can account for only a decline in the price by about 11%.

Regarding your 11% comment, I don't think that's how it works. Example: If you were to take 11% of the value of bitcoin's market cap today and dump it on all exchanges at once, it would SURELY drive the price to zero. That's because the size of the cumulative exchange orderbooks is just a fraction of what's sitting in cold storage etc. So for every 1% of coins dumped it will have more than 1% effect on the price, unless done over a loooooooooong period of time such that the order books are thoroughly replenished between sales.

[odolvlobo]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

According to blockchain.inf/markets, bitstamp has ~$9.5 million in trades in the last 24 hours, with bitcoin trading at ~$400, that works out to ~24k bitcoin in the last 24 hours. The amount mined per day is roughly 15% of that figure. Taking away 15% of the supply of a product would almost always have an impact on the price

According to Bitcoinity (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list), the total traded in the last 24 hours on all exchanges was 484k. Bitstamp's 25k is a little more than 5% of the total exchange volume. 3600 BTC is only 0.75% of the total exchange volume, and don't forget that 3600 assumes that all mined bitcoins are sold.
Anyway, my point is not that the price is unaffected by newly mined bitcoins. Of course it is. It's basic inflation of the money supply. I just don't think it is the major cause of the steep decline over the last 9 months.
Mining has increased the number of Bitcoins over the last year from about 12 million to about 13.5 million. The increase is about 13%, so from a mathematical standpoint, inflation can account for only a decline in the price by about 11%.

Regarding your 11% comment, I don't think that's how it works. Example: If you were to take 11% of the value of bitcoin's market cap today and dump it on all exchanges at once, it would SURELY drive the price to zero. That's because the size of the cumulative exchange orderbooks is just a fraction of what's sitting in cold storage etc. So for every 1% of coins dumped it will have more than 1% effect on the price, unless done over a loooooooooong period of time such that the order books are thoroughly replenished between sales.

The 13% I'm talking about was added over a period of a year, not all at once.

[jinxx]

I double checked, the block reward is currently 25 and that means 3600 bitcoins come into play a day.  By the end of next year though that will half to 1800 and I think that might help the system as a whole.  Not sure though. 

The block reward drop is 2 years away.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

how accurate is that site? just curious..

also thanks for reminding us about the block reward, i totally forgot about that stuff..

[scarsbergholden]

3600 are produced daily I think....

And it is only a small fraction of total exchange volume.

According to blockchain.inf/markets, bitstamp has ~$9.5 million in trades in the last 24 hours, with bitcoin trading at ~$400, that works out to ~24k bitcoin in the last 24 hours. The amount mined per day is roughly 15% of that figure. Taking away 15% of the supply of a product would almost always have an impact on the price

According to Bitcoinity (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/list), the total traded in the last 24 hours on all exchanges was 484k. Bitstamp's 25k is a little more than 5% of the total exchange volume. 3600 BTC is only 0.75% of the total exchange volume, and don't forget that 3600 assumes that all mined bitcoins are sold.

Anyway, my point is not that the price is unaffected by newly mined bitcoins. Of course it is. It's basic inflation of the money supply. I just don't think it is the major cause of the steep decline over the last 9 months.

Mining has increased the number of Bitcoins over the last year from about 12 million to about 13.5 million. The increase is about 13%, so from a mathematical standpoint, inflation can account for only a decline in the price by about 11%.

Regarding your 11% comment, I don't think that's how it works. Example: If you were to take 11% of the value of bitcoin's market cap today and dump it on all exchanges at once, it would SURELY drive the price to zero. That's because the size of the cumulative exchange orderbooks is just a fraction of what's sitting in cold storage etc. So for every 1% of coins dumped it will have more than 1% effect on the price, unless done over a loooooooooong period of time such that the order books are thoroughly replenished between sales.

He is talking about monitory inflation, not the sale of additional bitcoin in the market.

His calculation comes from the assumption that the market cap of bitcoin will stay fixed while the number of bitcoin will increase. Since there will be more bitcoin overall, the price per bitcoin will go down by 11% if the number of bitcoin goes up 13%