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Author Topic: Abandon BTC  (Read 6814 times)
Mervyn_Pumpkinhead (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 08:18:45 PM
 #21

You VASTLY underestimate first mover advantage.

For the first mover advantage to have importance in technological fields, it has to have technological superiority, control of resources or high user switching costs.
As I see it:
1) Bitcoin is technologically inferior.
2) Bitcoin isn't the sole representation of this specific idea or technology.
3) Switching costs would be trivial for services and users to switch to new cryptos.

Reading your last line somehow linked me straight to Star Wars and "You don't know the power of the dark side!". First mover advantage is more prominent in inefficient markets, where marketing is valued higher then technological advancements. Technological advancements are stagnant in markets like these, because the majority consumers aren't educated enough to understand them. They will only react to smart advertisement to which the first mover advantage is most important.
I know that the first mover advantage is a force to be reckoned with, but I strongly doubt that it will be the main force that will be driving this market. The first mover advantage can direct the success of carbonated soft drinks and detergents, but the field of cryptocurrencies will be on another league from something this primitive.

Thank you for pointing out the main argument that supports the success of bitcoin.


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Mervyn_Pumpkinhead (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 08:33:59 PM
 #22

I'm off for now. See y'all on another day!


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piramida
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October 09, 2014, 08:35:12 PM
 #23

You VASTLY underestimate first mover advantage.

For the first mover advantage to have importance in technological fields, it has to have technological superiority, control of resources or high user switching costs.
As I see it:
1) Bitcoin is technologically inferior.
2) Bitcoin isn't the sole representation of this specific idea or technology.
3) Switching costs would be trivial for services and users to switch to new cryptos.


Oh, nice, bullet points!

1. No, bitcoin is developed by hundreds of actual developers who create amazing features not present anywhere else, while deploying it on a live billion-dollar value blockchain while keeping it secure; most other cryptos are just copies by get-rich-quick kiddies who have no idea what they are doing.
2. That is true; same can be said about IPv4 but it still rides along for 30 years.
3. Oh no, most of the infrastructure already assumes bitcoin, promotes bitcoin, uses bitcoin. Of course, everything can be switched theoretically, but not "trivial", and sometimes even impossible, for example for the hashing network. Which is, regardless of what you say, the greatest strength of bitcoin.

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October 09, 2014, 08:39:17 PM
 #24

Other "advanced" alts has nice touches to them, but the most important aspect of any crypto is user support. There may be a few technically "superior" alts. If there are no one using accepting it as payment, it has no use in the crypto world. Currently, there is no other crypto which can sway the dominance of bitcoin.
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October 09, 2014, 08:43:30 PM
 #25

Other "advanced" alts has nice touches to them, but the most important aspect of any crypto is user support. There may be a few technically "superior" alts. If there are no one using accepting it as payment, it has no use in the crypto world. Currently, there is no other crypto which can sway the dominance of bitcoin.

Right, but that is not to say that some time down the road a few could find a mainstream spot also. BTC has had a head start, and has a lot of money backing it right now so of course it looks like king as it should be, but then again over time something might join it.

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October 09, 2014, 08:44:32 PM
 #26

BTC works and BTC can be the key for a new economical future.

Why to use another coins based on it? Please OP, why use something that is already there and with a huge community on it?
bitcoin is strong, useful, powerful and necessary.

Other coins are just more and more experiments. I own more than one altcoin but not all of them have a great dev-team or strong project to really believe on it... you have coins that doge (huge community) XMR or another ones (with great projects) but bitcoin have something that the other ones can't have: be the first.

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October 10, 2014, 04:56:14 AM
 #27

OP, I fully understand where you're coming from, what with bitcoin being extremely environmentally wasteful, but that may be necessary to give it a base value, if nothing else. You need something like a production cost assigned to it, so there can be a reference to its fundamental value. With PoW mining , while primitive, it at least has a direct way to assign a production cost to it: electricity.

But however better cryptocurrency can be improved, it's not that there aren't alt coins that have better solutions and better technology than bitcoin, yet they still don't and can't overtake much less replace bitcoin. There's also the adoption and infrastructure, which is what really gives bitcoin its value. Bitcoin's first mover advantage really can't be simply overlooked or dismissed. The solution is not to create another alternate coin, but to just fully concentrate on Bitcoin and how to evolve it to be something better.
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October 10, 2014, 05:13:29 AM
 #28

You still have time to abandon BTC and put your wealth on more advanced cryptos. The waves are getting weaker and weaker while the market is slowly eating itself.

Adding new wealth to the bitcoin ecosystem, rewards miners for wasting energy without giving anything useful to the network. It's no secret that adding more wealth to the bitcoin ecosystem, only fuels this idiotic arms race of bitcoin mining.
Bitcoin is strongly impractical because of it's immature use of resources and it's inability to support stability. You have to be religious about bitcoin while the world of finance is a new place to you, if you can't see the importance of these impracticalities.
The Winklevoss twins may be great rowers, and Draper may be a good friend to Jurvetson, but their judgement about bitcoin is childish at best.

The future is not in bitcoin, but in the general idea of open sourced monetary systems. There needs to be a lot more advancements before cryptocurrencies would be practical on a larger scale. The current phase of development is in it's end. Right now would be the right time to jump off this train and jump onto something newer and better, that has solved some problems that plague bitcoin.
Don't ask me on what crypto to buy, because I don't want this thread to become a trollfest. Do your own research while keeping the flaws of bitcoin in mind.

Don't get caught on a sinking ship, just because you're emotionally attached to your investment. It's a common flaw for novice investors to become emotionally attached to the source of their first winnings.

If you reply to this thread, then I would kindly ask you to express yourself in a calm and constructive manner. Thank you!

If you actually believed what you wrote you would be posting in the Nxt forum community, or the Bitshares community or the Emunie community or the Ripple community or the Ethereum community. Because there is tons of non-bitcoin crypto advancement and ingenuity happening in all those communities.

But this isn't really about that. This is about your ego. An ego that thinks that bitcoin is a cult. And that you are smart and everyone else here is a freakin moron.

Well, bitcoin is in a bear market. So is gold and silver and copper. And so are many world economies. And so is real estate in much of the U.S.

So freakin what?  Bitcoin is in a bear market and still the price is 2-3xs more than it was a year ago.

Do you actually believe that a bear market gives credence to your condescending opinions about Bitcoin? And if you care about digital monetary systems so much why are you not somewhere else HELPING OUT??
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October 10, 2014, 07:55:56 AM
Last edit: October 10, 2014, 10:18:49 AM by Mervyn_Pumpkinhead
 #29

1. No, bitcoin is developed by hundreds of actual developers who create amazing features not present anywhere else, while deploying it on a live billion-dollar value blockchain while keeping it secure; most other cryptos are just copies by get-rich-quick kiddies who have no idea what they are doing.
2. That is true; same can be said about IPv4 but it still rides along for 30 years.
3. Oh no, most of the infrastructure already assumes bitcoin, promotes bitcoin, uses bitcoin. Of course, everything can be switched theoretically, but not "trivial", and sometimes even impossible, for example for the hashing network. Which is, regardless of what you say, the greatest strength of bitcoin.

1. Tell me about these unique features that aren't present in any other crypto and that make bitcoin unique.
2. IPv4 didn't have important fundamental flaws that made it impractical.
3. For the users and services it IS trivial to switch to new cryptos. Only smart  investments around bitcoin are those investments that go in into the service framework. The beauty of those investments is that they aren't dependent on bitcoin and it's price. Most of the support services earn by volume and if bitcoin fails then it's not hard to just switch cryptos.
In my vocabulary, buying BTC or any other crypto is more of an gamble then an investment because of this.

Other "advanced" alts has nice touches to them, but the most important aspect of any crypto is user support. There may be a few technically "superior" alts. If there are no one using accepting it as payment, it has no use in the crypto world. Currently, there is no other crypto which can sway the dominance of bitcoin.

Bitcoin finally got established to be used as a considerable legal form of payment in 2013, while it was introduced in 2009. This means that it needed 4 years to earn the trust and acceptance of people to become something more then some quirky underground fantasy money. Most of the new and better alts are only 1 - 2 years old, meaning that they are only now getting established enough to be taken into consideration. The only reason why it won't take 4 full years, is because bitcoin has already paved a big part of the road to fasten the entire process for the newcomers.

BTC works and BTC can be the key for a new economical future.

Why to use another coins based on it? Please OP, why use something that is already there and with a huge community on it?
bitcoin is strong, useful, powerful and necessary.

Other coins are just more and more experiments. I own more than one altcoin but not all of them have a great dev-team or strong project to really believe on it... you have coins that doge (huge community) XMR or another ones (with great projects) but bitcoin have something that the other ones can't have: be the first.

Bitcoin works like the steam engined locomotives still work. Another question is if it's practical enough to be used on today's standards. Steam locomotives once had a large community supporting them and didn't mean that they overpowered technological advancements.
All of the coins, including bitcoin have started off as experiments. Because that's how technological development is done - by experimenting. Right now the experimenting has shown that the important flaws of bitcoin can be addressed and new cryptos with better fundamental properties can be made.

OP, I fully understand where you're coming from, what with bitcoin being extremely environmentally wasteful, but that may be necessary to give it a base value, if nothing else. You need something like a production cost assigned to it, so there can be a reference to its fundamental value. With PoW mining , while primitive, it at least has a direct way to assign a production cost to it: electricity.

But however better cryptocurrency can be improved, it's not that there aren't alt coins that have better solutions and better technology than bitcoin, yet they still don't and can't overtake much less replace bitcoin. There's also the adoption and infrastructure, which is what really gives bitcoin its value. Bitcoin's first mover advantage really can't be simply overlooked or dismissed. The solution is not to create another alternate coin, but to just fully concentrate on Bitcoin and how to evolve it to be something better.

It's foolish if costs are being driven up by a method that has no gain. For instance, if Volkswagens would be made in a way that they are disassembled and reassembled 10 times before they come out, then it sure would drive up the production costs together with the price. It would also give people more work for doing it. But will it improve the quality of the product or improve anything at all? No.
In the future, the use of money should be cheap, without any artificially added costs. Currently is the time where the banking sector is using it's dominance to artificially add costs to their offered services. I believe that the future will be better, not worse, like it would be with bitcoin.

The fundamental properties of bitcoin, like PoW mining and fixed coin supply can't be changed because of the trust issues that would arise. That is the reason why the developers aren't considering touching these parts. They know that trust would be lost if fundamental rules would be changed. So, the only option is to move wealth to new cryptos that are already built on more advanced fundamental properties.

If you actually believed what you wrote you would be posting in the Nxt forum community, or the Bitshares community or the Emunie community or the Ripple community or the Ethereum community. Because there is tons of non-bitcoin crypto advancement and ingenuity happening in all those communities.

But this isn't really about that. This is about your ego. An ego that thinks that bitcoin is a cult. And that you are smart and everyone else here is a freakin moron.

Well, bitcoin is in a bear market. So is gold and silver and copper. And so are many world economies. And so is real estate in much of the U.S.

So freakin what?  Bitcoin is in a bear market and still the price is 2-3xs more than it was a year ago.

Do you actually believe that a bear market gives credence to your condescending opinions about Bitcoin? And if you care about digital monetary systems so much why are you not somewhere else HELPING OUT??

Why would I have to warn other communities to abandon bitcoin? If people are already apart of those new and better cryptos, then there is no reason to warn them, right?
I offered my vision why this is not just a temporal bear market, but the end of an certain phase that was lead by bitcoin. I have explained in detail why I think that the end of this phase will also flag the end of bitcoins dominance.
I recommend you to challenge my vision with counter-arguments. Personal attacks won't get you very far.


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October 10, 2014, 08:17:03 AM
 #30

I can agree to OP to some extent. I choose NEOS and BTSX.

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October 10, 2014, 08:50:26 AM
 #31

1. No, bitcoin is developed by hundreds of actual developers who create amazing features not present anywhere else, while deploying it on a live billion-dollar value blockchain while keeping it secure; most other cryptos are just copies by get-rich-quick kiddies who have no idea what they are doing.
2. That is true; same can be said about IPv4 but it still rides along for 30 years.
3. Oh no, most of the infrastructure already assumes bitcoin, promotes bitcoin, uses bitcoin. Of course, everything can be switched theoretically, but not "trivial", and sometimes even impossible, for example for the hashing network. Which is, regardless of what you say, the greatest strength of bitcoin.

1. Tell me about these unique features that aren't present in any other crypto and that make bitcoin unique.
2. IPv4 didn't have important fundamental flaws that made it impractical.
3. For the users and services it IS trivial to switch to new cryptos. Only smart  investments around bitcoin are those investments that go in into the service framework. The beauty of those investments is that they aren't dependent on bitcoin and it's price. Most of the support services earn by volume and if bitcoin fails then it's not hard to just switch cryptos.
In my vocabulary, buying BTC or any other crypto is more of an gamble then an investment because of this.

Other "advanced" alts has nice touches to them, but the most important aspect of any crypto is user support. There may be a few technically "superior" alts. If there are no one using accepting it as payment, it has no use in the crypto world. Currently, there is no other crypto which can sway the dominance of bitcoin.

Bitcoin finally got established to be used as a considerable legal form of payment in 2013, while it was introduced in 2009. This means that it needed 4 years to earn the trust and acceptance of people to become something more then some quirky underground fantasy money. Most of the new and better alts are only 1 - 2 years old, meaning that they are only now getting established enough to be taken into consideration. The only reason why it won't take 4 full years, is because bitcoin has already paved a big part of the road to fasten the entire process for the newcomers.

BTC works and BTC can be the key for a new economical future.

Why to use another coins based on it? Please OP, why use something that is already there and with a huge community on it?
bitcoin is strong, useful, powerful and necessary.

Other coins are just more and more experiments. I own more than one altcoin but not all of them have a great dev-team or strong project to really believe on it... you have coins that doge (huge community) XMR or another ones (with great projects) but bitcoin have something that the other ones can't have: be the first.

Bitcoin works like the steam engined locomotives still work. Another question is if it's practical enough to be used on today's standards. Steam locomotives once had a large community supporting them and didn't mean that they overpowered technological advancements.
All of the coins, including bitcoin have started off as experiments. Because that's how technological development is done - by experimenting. Right now the experimenting has shown that the important flaws of bitcoin can be addressed and new cryptos with better fundamental properties can be made.

OP, I fully understand where you're coming from, what with bitcoin being extremely environmentally wasteful, but that may be necessary to give it a base value, if nothing else. You need something like a production cost assigned to it, so there can be a reference to its fundamental value. With PoW mining , while primitive, it at least has a direct way to assign a production cost to it: electricity.

But however better cryptocurrency can be improved, it's not that there aren't alt coins that have better solutions and better technology than bitcoin, yet they still don't and can't overtake much less replace bitcoin. There's also the adoption and infrastructure, which is what really gives bitcoin its value. Bitcoin's first mover advantage really can't be simply overlooked or dismissed. The solution is not to create another alternate coin, but to just fully concentrate on Bitcoin and how to evolve it to be something better.

It's foolish if costs are being driven up by a method that has no gain. For instance, if Volkswagen's would be made in a way that they are disassembled and reassembled 10 times before they come out, then it sure would drive up the production costs together with the price. It would also give people more work for doing it. But will it improve the quality of the product or improve anything at all? No.
In the future, the use of money should be cheap, without any artificially added costs. Currently is the time where the banking sector is using it's dominance to artificially add costs to their offered services. I believe that the future will be better, not worse, like it would be with bitcoin.

The fundamental properties of bitcoin, like PoW mining and fixed coin supply can't be changed because of the trust issues that would arise. That is the reason why the developers aren't considering touching these parts. They know that trust would be lost if fundamental rules would be changed. So, the only option is to move wealth to new cryptos that are already built on more advanced fundamental properties.

If you actually believed what you wrote you would be posting in the Nxt forum community, or the Bitshares community or the Emunie community or the Ripple community or the Ethereum community. Because there is tons of non-bitcoin crypto advancement and ingenuity happening in all those communities.

But this isn't really about that. This is about your ego. An ego that thinks that bitcoin is a cult. And that you are smart and everyone else here is a freakin moron.

Well, bitcoin is in a bear market. So is gold and silver and copper. And so are many world economies. And so is real estate in much of the U.S.

So freakin what?  Bitcoin is in a bear market and still the price is 2-3xs more than it was a year ago.

Do you actually believe that a bear market gives credence to your condescending opinions about Bitcoin? And if you care about digital monetary systems so much why are you not somewhere else HELPING OUT??

Why would I have to warn other communities to abandon bitcoin? If people are already apart of those new and better cryptos, then there is no reason to warn them, right?
I offered my vision why this is not just a temporal bear market, but the end of an certain phase that was lead by bitcoin. I have explained in detail why I think that the end of this phase will also flag the end of bitcoins dominance.
I recommend you to challenge my vision with counter-arguments. Personal attacks won't get you very far.


Quit being so butthurt. Im not personally attacking you when I say if you believe in open source crypto get involved in non-bitcoin projects instead of warning people that bitcoin will fail. It doesn't make sense.

Here's why: (and by all means please attempt to debunk why)

Scenario A) You are wrong. Meanwhile, bitcoin survives. Our community thrives. And other non-bitcoin blockchain alts grow as well. Meanwhile, you did absolutely nothing productive with your time.

Scenario B) You were right.  Bitcoin fails. Other non-bitcoin alts change the world. You have nothing to do with it. Your time was wasted. Maybe 3 people listened to you and got out of bitcoin. So you saved 3 people a couple of hundred, maybe a couple of thousand dollars in investments. Meanwhile you had a chance to be a part of something revolutionary, something you believed in. But you didn't.
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October 10, 2014, 10:31:03 AM
 #32

You still have time to abandon BTC and put your wealth on more advanced cryptos.


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October 10, 2014, 01:19:08 PM
 #33

Just give me your coins since they are useless to you and prove your abandonment.
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October 10, 2014, 01:20:13 PM
 #34

Nice OP.  A few thoughts jump to mind:

1. There is a very large number of overly optimistic speculators hoping that this lottery ticket will pay off.  They will quickly dismiss it without giving any real thought.
2. I share your opinion that its time to look toward who will be the 2.0 leader in the crypto currency space.  There are so many clones that are nothing but penny stock pump and dump schemes.
3. Ethereum has a lot of potential but its really early.  They seem to have a good vision, principals and now capital.  Even so, none of that matters if they are not able to deliver something that is viable.  Also it will take time to earn trust as you have pointed out.
4. My prediction is a handful of viable alternatives will wait in the wings until there is some crisis of confidence in bitcoin and then there will be a quick migration to one of them.
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October 10, 2014, 02:30:34 PM
 #35

1. No, bitcoin is developed by hundreds of actual developers who create amazing features not present anywhere else, while deploying it on a live billion-dollar value blockchain while keeping it secure; most other cryptos are just copies by get-rich-quick kiddies who have no idea what they are doing.
2. That is true; same can be said about IPv4 but it still rides along for 30 years.
3. Oh no, most of the infrastructure already assumes bitcoin, promotes bitcoin, uses bitcoin. Of course, everything can be switched theoretically, but not "trivial", and sometimes even impossible, for example for the hashing network. Which is, regardless of what you say, the greatest strength of bitcoin.

1. Tell me about these unique features that aren't present in any other crypto and that make bitcoin unique.
2. IPv4 didn't have important fundamental flaws that made it impractical.
3. For the users and services it IS trivial to switch to new cryptos. Only smart  investments around bitcoin are those investments that go in into the service framework. The beauty of those investments is that they aren't dependent on bitcoin and it's price. Most of the support services earn by volume and if bitcoin fails then it's not hard to just switch cryptos.
In my vocabulary, buying BTC or any other crypto is more of an gamble then an investment because of this.


1. working multi-sig implemented in actual businesses, for one.
2. oh yes it did. it had a 4 million address space problem which was noticed 20 years ago and was fixed in a follow-up protocol ipv6  18 (!!) years ago and still it has 3% penetration regardless of everyone's efforts. Because it costs money to upgrade all the infrastructure! Even though most hardware supports it, nobody cares enough to fix software because there's no fatal flaw and everything "just works" on ipv4. That would be the reasoning why bitcoin, if ever replaced, would go out in a very long co-existence process with a new currency.
3. there is some truth to it, that service investments are currency-agnostic, however as I firmly believe, bitcoin can't possibly just "disappear" as myspace did - many unique services are bitcoin only, millions of USD in support network is bitcoin-only, so the switch will be slow and painful, not matter how amazingly good new currency might be.

Your reasoning is very similar to early delusional bulls who said "ok bitcoin is so much superior to the world's financial system that it will replace all of it tomorrow". This just does not happen like that. Step 1 - you build something that is unique and impossible under the old system. Step 2 - you win users to trust you with their finances.  Step 3 - they move.

You think that right after you come up with a better idea you go to Step 1 "it wins". You miss alot of steps.

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October 10, 2014, 02:39:24 PM
 #36

Yeah guys,
Stop buying the only crypto that has ever had any real traction and start buying hopecoins.  Roll Eyes

You can afford hopecoins because one BTC = 15,000 HC!

EDIT: since I started writing this the rate has changed. one BTC now = 117,000,000,000 HC.


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October 10, 2014, 03:29:27 PM
 #37

Many of the OP's points are valid, but the conclusion about investing in some current alt-coin doesn't make sense to me at this time.  Perhaps in the future this situation will occur, but I hope for those of us who like to follow the space, we'll be aware of it and able move our investments over to it as early adopters.
When someone can show me the alt that I can get in and out of easily without using BTC I'll be more convinced.
I don't think it's a horrible idea to invest a small amount in many alternate coins, but the most likely outcome of that will be near complete loss of investment, it's a lottery ticket for a moonshot.  If you have to choose only one coin now, it's quite obviously BTC.

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October 10, 2014, 03:45:47 PM
 #38

You still have time to abandon BTC and put your wealth on more advanced cryptos.

I stopped reading from there, useless post lets move on.
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October 10, 2014, 04:18:39 PM
 #39

You VASTLY underestimate first mover advantage.

For the first mover advantage to have importance in technological fields, it has to have technological superiority, control of resources or high user switching costs.
As I see it:
1) Bitcoin is technologically inferior.
2) Bitcoin isn't the sole representation of this specific idea or technology.
3) Switching costs would be trivial for services and users to switch to new cryptos.

Reading your last line somehow linked me straight to Star Wars and "You don't know the power of the dark side!". First mover advantage is more prominent in inefficient markets, where marketing is valued higher then technological advancements. Technological advancements are stagnant in markets like these, because the majority consumers aren't educated enough to understand them. They will only react to smart advertisement to which the first mover advantage is most important.
I know that the first mover advantage is a force to be reckoned with, but I strongly doubt that it will be the main force that will be driving this market. The first mover advantage can direct the success of carbonated soft drinks and detergents, but the field of cryptocurrencies will be on another league from something this primitive.

Thank you for pointing out the main argument that supports the success of bitcoin.

You forgot 4) you are invested in a few altcoins and not bitcoin
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October 10, 2014, 04:29:59 PM
 #40

You forgot 4) you are invested in a few altcoins and not bitcoin
And his only hope is for some suckers to invest in these altcoins too, so he can cash out and buy bitcoins   Grin

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