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[20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
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Topic: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息? (Read 1298 times)
jiayuan
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[20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 10, 2014, 05:10:23 AM
#1
比特币似乎现在处境不佳,但这种货币的网络支持者却一如既往地在买入。下面是他们这种乐观态度背后的原因。
上周末,比特币崩盘。在电子交易市场,从周五开始到周日下午,比特币的单价下跌了14%,跌至290美元。
但比特币忠实的粉丝却认为,太阳永远不会停止发光。譬如,在红迪网(reddit.com)的比特币讨论版——将近14万比特币爱好者的家园——币价下跌被视作好消息。“过去的好时光又回来了!厚墙,操纵,真正的金融西大荒——我喜欢!”,有人在周一的一个热帖中这样说。
“有谁不喜欢火灾物品减价大拍卖呢?”另一位受欢迎的论坛参与者问道,他声称自己“收购了大量便宜比特币”
那么,如何解读这种永恒的乐观呢?有没有可能,比特币最忠实的粉丝只关注于这种货币长期的潜力而不是更广阔的市场,因此对其真实价值有更乐观的看法。
当然,这是可能的。但圣塔克拉拉大学专门研究院行为金融学的梅尔·斯特曼教授似乎找到了更合理的解释:确认偏见(Confirmation bias)。简单地说,比特币社区有一种成为乐观情绪回音室的倾向,使其成员对该货币的真实价值产生了一种错觉。“确实,你所听到的就是你想听到的;你可以轻易相信:比特币将接管金融领域,银行将成为明日黄花。”斯特曼解释说。“当人们试图巩固他们的观点时,他们不是在寻找真相,而是寻找支持他们观点的看法,而他们的看法受意识形态和自身利益的驱使,是先入为主的。”
这种解释可以在伊利诺伊大学研究人员最近的一份比特币用户调查报告中找到支持的证据,研究人员发现,参与网络比特币社区的比特粉要比其他比特币持有者更看好这种货币未来的价格。当问到比特币未来的价值时(调查指定的是比特币2019年初的价值),经常在各种网络平台讨论比特币的用户给出的预测值要比不爱讨论的用户高出68%。
当然,这一现象不单单产生于比特币社区和网络论坛。“在那些人们喜欢吹嘘自己投资成功的社区可看到类似的现象,因为人们倾向于吹嘘他们的成功而不会显露自己的失败。”教授警告说。“如果你不够谨慎,那么你听到的只会是人们正在赚大钱。”
斯特曼表示,比特币社区的行为还有另一种心理学上的解释:许多投资比特币及其他另类资产(譬如黄金)的人之所以这样乐观,一部分是因为,这种看法符合他们的广阔全球视野和意识形态。“公正的说,许多投资黄金的人持有这样一种世界观:美国正在衰落,坏事即将发生,通胀将加剧。”斯特曼说。
他说,这使得硬真理特别难以接受。毕竟,放弃一支股票容易,但放弃一种世界观要痛苦得多。
斯特曼建议各类投资者避免确认偏见,并在投资时和持各种不同看法的人交流。他开玩笑说,譬如,比特币买家们应该在上周周末前问问他的看法。他的看法是:“我认为这是个骗局。”
编译:比特人-潇湘夜雨
jsgayo
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Re: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 10, 2014, 07:17:59 AM
#2
Quote from: jiayuan on October 10, 2014, 05:10:23 AM
圣塔克拉拉大学专门研究院行为金融学的梅尔·斯特曼教授似乎找到了更合理的解释:确认偏见(Confirmation bias)。
行为金融学
从这个角度分析得出的结论,我相信。
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vancsj
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Re: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 10, 2014, 07:36:28 AM
#3
房价下跌的时候,大多数人都认为是好消息,只有投机者不这么认为
比特币也是一样的
RIC solo mining with XPT miner @ zjuer.net:10034
sellfpga
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Re: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 10, 2014, 12:08:52 PM
#4
原来我也算是比特粉了,因为我看到各种坏消息怎么一点反映也没有了。
fa
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Re: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 10, 2014, 02:32:08 PM
#5
中本聪,让你选择性失聪
side39
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Re: [20141010]时代周刊:为什么比特粉不相信坏消息?
October 12, 2014, 09:48:45 AM
#6
坏消息 一旦实现 就是亏的倾家荡产之日 谁愿意信 啊
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