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Author Topic: Greece mulls Euro exit  (Read 6173 times)
muyuu
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May 17, 2012, 01:46:37 PM
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Greece will hardly ever be a cheap tourist destination. For that to happen all Europe needs to go tits up, and that wouldn't (won't) leave anyone unaffected.

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May 17, 2012, 02:23:07 PM
 #22

Greece will hardly ever be a cheap tourist destination. For that to happen all Europe needs to go tits up, and that wouldn't (won't) leave anyone unaffected.

no, but some people will still holiday.

Paying through their noses. There's always such people, but forget about bargains.

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May 17, 2012, 02:41:25 PM
 #23

Greece will hardly ever be a cheap tourist destination. For that to happen all Europe needs to go tits up, and that wouldn't (won't) leave anyone unaffected.

no, but some people will still holiday.

Paying through their noses. There's always such people, but forget about bargains.

the people who do not take holidays today, and rather take that money and bet that there would be a crash, will do very well if there is a crash. people like this will take holidays and will have much nicer holidays than if they took them today.

Smiley

EDIT:

Think about it this way, for the people who took everything they had and bought gold at $350, silver at $4 and then sold over $1600/$35.. do you think they care if prices in fiat have doubled? 

nope...

Doesn't matter, a bad deal is a bad deal.

Obviously though, if what you want to see is Greece, there is no substitute for that. Right now it's a perfectly moment too, no doom and gloom.

But if you want a cheapo place to have a house near a nice beach, it's an awful choice. You are much better off where you are now if that's what you want. For sun & beach tourism it's a remarkably bad deal but many people seem to happily overpay, I'm not judging.

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May 17, 2012, 03:07:16 PM
 #24

i have a house next to the sea already. but only one, and none in europe Smiley



So you got a nice deal and you're in for a horrible one? go ahead then Cheesy

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May 17, 2012, 03:10:23 PM
 #25

It is really quite shocking. A disorderly exit from the Euro puts us all in a new world economy. If Greece goes, who will back up Spain's debt?...Germany? I don't think so.

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May 17, 2012, 03:27:47 PM
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It is really quite shocking. A disorderly exit from the Euro puts us all in a new world economy. If Greece goes, who will back up Spain's debt?...Germany? I don't think so.

LOL. I love it how the press can control general sentiment about countries so much.

And who will back up Germany's debt? because it's much higher than Spain's in both relative and absolute terms.  Grin

A few hedge funds have decided to bank on Spanish bonds and will try to raise them to the roof saying whatever it takes (Roubini has gone on record saying so, by the looks of it Krugman is also in someone's payroll). No conspiracy here, just business as usual. However it's quite remarkable how they'd spin reality in such coordinated and obviously manipulative fashion. They all were talking about Italy, then suddenly France (briefly), then back to Spain... I wonder how much they're making in these price swings they are so easily and timely provoking.

You can see it works because people would parrot the same names and countries in all sorts of forums. Whatever is the flavour of the week! it's pretty impressive.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/05/european-economy-guide


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May 17, 2012, 03:34:42 PM
 #27

It is really quite shocking. A disorderly exit from the Euro puts us all in a new world economy. If Greece goes, who will back up Spain's debt?...Germany? I don't think so.

yeah, this makes me think Greece wont really go... or if they do, everyone will go
Honestly, how do you expect them to survive?
The idea that "it won't happen because the consequences would be horrible" doesn't really fly with me.
Yes. The consequences will be horrible, but greece has no way out of its current dialemma that doesn't involve default and a new currency.

Right now, capital flight from Greece is in excess of 1.5% of GDP per week (~4 billion euros/week) and its banks are so undercapitalised that the ECB has stopped lending to some of them because they are technically trading whilst insolvent.
Even with a competent government and good fiscal policies (which they don't and won't have) then they'd STILL need to default fully, impose capital restrictions and devalue.

Hell, you want a good indicator? Two of the largest bookies in the UK, William Hill and Ladbrokes, were offering odds on Greece leaving the euro by the end of the year.
After the massive increase in demand, even at 1.3/1, they were forced to pull it this week after concluding that the event was a near-certainty.


The real questions now are:
-What happens when Greece goes?
-What happens when Japan follows?
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May 17, 2012, 03:55:53 PM
 #28


yeah, this makes me think Greece wont really go... or if they do, everyone will go
It was a big failure that Greece was invited to the Euro. I really have no Idea what goes round the Heads from the leading EU Politics inviting Countrys like Greece, Portugal and all these small countrys with very low economics. I am no nationalist, but i thing every Country gets back there own curency, so every Country is responsible for it's self.

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May 17, 2012, 04:00:49 PM
 #29

Defaulting Sovereign Debt isn't new, it has been done several times in the past. What makes this new, is that Greece's default affects other Sovereign Debt.

This is why the first to go wins, the last loses. I'd expect Germany is aware of this and would take steps to exit before they get holding the bag for other's incompetence.

Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 17, 2012, 04:32:04 PM
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yeah, this makes me think Greece wont really go... or if they do, everyone will go
It was a big failure that Greece was invited to the Euro. I really have no Idea what goes round the Heads from the leading EU Politics inviting Countrys like Greece, Portugal and all these small countrys with very low economics. I am no nationalist, but i thing every Country gets back there own curency, so every Country is responsible for it's self.

The case of Greece is a bit special because they actually falsified their data to enter the currency and they were the only country to do so. Germany and France also missed their targets but didn't lie about it.

However, being in the eurozone has actually had terrible long term repercussions for many countries. It has caused a housing bubble across countries from Ireland to Portugal to Spain to Italy, let alone Greece and Slovenia (both completely devastated medium term by it).

So it's not really just Greece leeching off Central Europe. They really are much worse off. But now it's too late and either way it's going to be very costly.

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May 17, 2012, 04:35:45 PM
 #31

Perhaps Greece can start an account here and after a few posts start asking for bitcoin loans.  Cool

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May 17, 2012, 04:37:33 PM
 #32

Perhaps Greece can start an account here and after a few posts start asking for bitcoin loans.  Cool

LOL, their bonds are what? 30% APR. They could fund another here to service that interest. Tongue


Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 17, 2012, 04:40:40 PM
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The real questions now are:
-What happens when Greece goes?
-What happens when Japan follows?

Japan is different. Why? because they own their own debt. It's the only country where 99%+ of their bonds are kept within the country, by Japanese investors or banks. They won't speculate with their own debt either way, and they have the most solid currency in the world at the moment. They can just print it all off, they actually try to bring the yen down and they don't seem to be able to print it fast enough.

This is why they haven't gone tits up this far. They have undergone a long process of nationalising their debt. Soros tried to sink the yen and got burnt big time.

Asian nationalism (both Chinese and Japanese) seems to be paying off big time, they are relatively safe in all this mess. But they will both lose BIG when either the eurozone or the US go ka-boom, that's for sure.

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May 17, 2012, 05:52:09 PM
 #34

Interesting theory from infowars:
Quote:
Now the trap is closing. The calls by the bought-and-paid-for media for a “real” super state are growing stronger. Alternatively, it is said there will be chaos, panic, bank-runs, devaluations, starvation and anarchy.
This is the dialectic as the elites wish to frame it. But it is a false one.
There will likely be chaos no matter what. It is the preferred tool. If Greece leaves the EU, then the resultant financial and banking ruin shall be used as justification for further centralizations of power within the EU and IMF.
If Greece remains in the Union, the chaos that results will also be used as a methodology of centralization. Either way, the powers-that-be plan to use chaos to consolidate more power for world government....

http://www.infowars.com/end-game-as-elite-trap-closes-economic-chaos-or-eu-super-state/

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May 17, 2012, 06:13:35 PM
 #35

Interesting theory from infowars:
Quote:
Now the trap is closing. The calls by the bought-and-paid-for media for a “real” super state are growing stronger. Alternatively, it is said there will be chaos, panic, bank-runs, devaluations, starvation and anarchy.
This is the dialectic as the elites wish to frame it. But it is a false one.
There will likely be chaos no matter what. It is the preferred tool. If Greece leaves the EU, then the resultant financial and banking ruin shall be used as justification for further centralizations of power within the EU and IMF.
If Greece remains in the Union, the chaos that results will also be used as a methodology of centralization. Either way, the powers-that-be plan to use chaos to consolidate more power for world government....

http://www.infowars.com/end-game-as-elite-trap-closes-economic-chaos-or-eu-super-state/

This being applied to the U.S. would be interesting. All those Fly-Over states, the government will try to 'centralize' wouldn't go quietly.
Starvation? They have food. Actually, unless you have chosen to live in a bad place or city, most people could take a walk through the woods and/or fields and get their daily requirements of calories. Give them a gun (oh, they already have them), they'll get their meat too.

Come to think of it, 27 states are arguing against centralization now and that is just over money. If it comes to survival, DC doesn't stand a chance. We'll send them food to start taking laws off the books rather than putting more on.


Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 17, 2012, 06:25:04 PM
 #36

Interesting theory from infowars:
Quote:
Now the trap is closing. The calls by the bought-and-paid-for media for a “real” super state are growing stronger. Alternatively, it is said there will be chaos, panic, bank-runs, devaluations, starvation and anarchy.
This is the dialectic as the elites wish to frame it. But it is a false one.
There will likely be chaos no matter what. It is the preferred tool. If Greece leaves the EU, then the resultant financial and banking ruin shall be used as justification for further centralizations of power within the EU and IMF.
If Greece remains in the Union, the chaos that results will also be used as a methodology of centralization. Either way, the powers-that-be plan to use chaos to consolidate more power for world government....

http://www.infowars.com/end-game-as-elite-trap-closes-economic-chaos-or-eu-super-state/

This being applied to the U.S. would be interesting. All those Fly-Over states, the government will try to 'centralize' wouldn't go quietly.
Starvation? They have food. Actually, unless you have chosen to live in a bad place or city, most people could take a walk through the woods and/or fields and get their daily requirements of calories. Give them a gun (oh, they already have them), they'll get their meat too.

Come to think of it, 27 states are arguing against centralization now and that is just over money. If it comes to survival, DC doesn't stand a chance. We'll send them food to start taking laws off the books rather than putting more on.


haha, no kidding. Whenever a financial expert talks about "the economy" they don't mean you and me. They are talking about their economy. If the banks collapse it will hurt them more than me. I taught wilderness skills for 12 years, it can't get bad enough to hurt me. Sure it would diminish all our lives in some ways, but overall my social status would be elevated. 
The bills have come due and I say bring the rain.

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May 17, 2012, 06:35:40 PM
 #37

Quote
The bills have come due and I say bring the rain.

lol, A little thunder wouldn't bother me neither.

A Cumulonimbus cloud has been forming over the east and west coasts for awhile.

You and I know how good it smells after a good storm, others have forgot.


Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 17, 2012, 08:18:13 PM
 #38

(PS: Realpra is wise.)

Can't take all the credit, much in my post was from around the internet - just got sick of hearing about how we are all doomed if some idiot bankers go bankrupt.

Quote
LOL. I love it how the press can control general sentiment about countries so much.

Me too, notice how its always centered on Europe even if the US is quite messed up too?

Drives money away from the euro and into the dollar - keeping it from devaluing from all the FED printing.


I think a large amount of investors actually have very little idea what they are doing.


Meanwhile China is getting stuff DONE, with all the infrastructure and renewable energy they can't come out too bad.

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May 18, 2012, 07:04:33 PM
 #39

Greece should:
1. Default on the loans they can't pay. Its just the ECB paying them right now anyway.
2. Now, they would no longer be able to loan a dime.

I'm not even sure about that. Free of debt economy being built with motivated population? Might be a good investment... get in early Wink

They should do 1. and then make their own currency. I read they have some gold, just use that to back it and jump in the boat with russia, china,... (who will do the same at some point) and be the first of european nations to have sound money.

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May 18, 2012, 07:06:12 PM
 #40

Given the scale of what is about to unfold on the international financial markets, I think we're about to get a field test of how good bitcoin is for people circumventing capital controls.
This is going to be very, very interesting lucrative.

fixed that for you Wink

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