My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ?

[philipma1957]

As usual I do bitcoincharts and bitcoinwisdom one runs low one runs high.  so 1.85 to 5.07   is the guess for now.
I also added a section on diff since May of 2013 when asics started to be available via asic miner

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,002,482,026
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,778,460,333 (+5.07%)
Adjust time:   After 1733 Blocks, About 11.5 days
Hashrate(?):   254,506,225 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.5 minutes

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   35002482026
Estimated   35650025649 in 1733 blks

(+1.85%).

 
Network total   244719.395 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.86 / 614 s


Difficulty History of asics and btc

I divide the  diff jumps  into 3 sections.  I realize that cut off is arbitrary some will say I should go back to the first Avalon's of Jan  2013 for Early asic not May of 2013  but in May of 2013  asic miner was doing good sales of the little .333gh block erupters so I used May of 2013 as a starting point.

With the maturity of asics growth has finally become slower.


Asic maturity days  So far we are  about 104 days into the mature 28mn chips.  So far  this is about a 9.77% avg for this time period.  I see it going lower then 9.77 % due to power cost and of course  price in fiat.

Date---------   Difficulty---   Change-----   Hash Rate
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s



Asic expansion days

Nov 29 2013 to June 29 2014  =  213 days about 19.22%

Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s 23.77
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s 14.782
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s 7.0783
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s 4.4245
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s


Early asic days

May 12 2013 to Nov 29 2013  = 201  days

Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013   50,810,339   35.88%   363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013   37,392,766   19.63%   267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013   31,256,961   19.47%   223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013   26,162,876   22.63%   187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013   21,335,329   10.32%   152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013   19,339,258   23.92%   138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013   15,605,633   28.41%   111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013   12,153,412   8.64%   86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013   11,187,257   11.03%   80,082 GH/s

[1715660989]

1715660989

[elduderino]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

[philipma1957]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

[xstr8guy]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

[philipma1957]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

yeah I think no matter what happens home mining will never thrive again.

  If btc shoots up to 800 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly.
 If btc shoots up to 1600 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly.
rinse repeat.

[btc-facebook]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

yeah I think no matter what happens home mining will never thrive again.

  If btc shoots up to 800 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly.
 If btc shoots up to 1600 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly.
rinse repeat.

You could potentially use existing bitcoin to buy more miners hoping that the price of bitcoin will remain low for the medium future (but a long term outlook of the price being very high) with the intention of holding onto the bitcoin the machines mine for the long term. This could result in the miner being able to essentially buy bitcoin at a discount

[Biodom]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

50%? Never going to happen.

[philipma1957]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late.  

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

50%? Never going to happen.

If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd.  And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up.

I have 6 s-3's  . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over.

Many larger people then me can do this.  I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising.

Hey I run my s-3's at freq 206.25.

The power is lower.
The hash is lower
They run very quiet. 
They are under 40db.
They are cooler.
I pull 1038 watts.
I get 1200Gh.
I have not done any resistor mods but I will.

  At current diff and current btc fiat they earn more then power costs. So they run.
I can afford to shut them down if they don't earn more then the power.

[xstr8guy]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late.  

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

50%? Never going to happen.

If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd.  And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up.

I have 6 s-3's  . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over.

Many larger people then me can do this.  I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising.

Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters.

They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet.

[philipma1957]

Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters.

They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet.

  Sometimes I believe that. Sometimes I believe they have 300ph they are holding offline so as not to shock the network with back to back 40% diff jumps.
 Pure conjecture on my part.

 But the long tubes from Asicminer are easy to build and they could be cooled in a tank of oil pretty cheaply.

today's diff numbers are :

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,002,482,026
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,532,953,358 (+4.37%)
Adjust time:   After 1589 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   267,198,549 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.7 minutes

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


 
Difficulty   35002482026
Estimated   36005870944 in 1589 blks   this is about 2.86%
 
Network total   272813.567 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.53 / 551 s

[wilth1]

Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days.   

[philipma1957]

Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days.   

 if you can get used s-3's on the cheap  they may be worth buying if you have power under 10 cents a kwatt.

there are some s-3's here and there for under 250 usd.

I got a few from this seller.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BITMAIN-AntMiner-S3-ASIC-Bitcoin-BTC-Miner-B5-7-IN-HAND-Ships-in-24-hrs-from-NY-/181534774039?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item2a4450d317

[-ck]

Too little, too late. 

I would have said the opposite. It was too much, too soon.

But myeah... same thing.

[notlist3d]

Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days.   

 if you can get used s-3's on the cheap  they may be worth buying if you have power under 10 cents a kwatt.

there are some s-3's here and there for under 250 usd.

I got a few from this seller.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BITMAIN-.AntMiner-S3-ASIC-Bitcoin-BTC-Miner-B5-7-IN-HAND-Ships-in-24-hrs-from-NY-/181534774039?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item2a4450d317

I would agree the S3 is a good bang for its buck.  You set it up once and basically let it run.

Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches.   It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's.  If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math.

[philipma1957]

Too little, too late. 

I would have said the opposite. It was too much, too soon.

But myeah... same thing.

Funny how english works.



 As for s-3's running them  now reminds me when I ran sapphire 7970's and coins were 6 to 10 bucks a piece.  I earned 1 to 1.5 coins a day and monthly profit was very small.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

50%? Never going to happen.

If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd.  And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up.

I have 6 s-3's  . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over.

Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising.

Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters.

They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet.

Very likely yes, since the miners cost less to manufacture than they are sold at, thus they will always be profitable for the companies.

[philipma1957]

Well, sorta good news.

Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us...

yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics .

  we are dropping the diff increases.

 the last 104 days are under 10% avg

Too little, too late. 

Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months.

50%? Never going to happen.

If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd.  And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up.

I have 6 s-3's  . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over.

Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising.

Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters.

They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet.

Very likely yes, since the miners cost less to manufacture than they are sold at, thus they will always be profitable for the companies.

 

Yeah I can see that idea is possible but I prefer the conspiracy one better.  It is a speculation thread after all.

[philipma1957]

Latest numbers look good for under 2%



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,002,482,026
Estimated Next Difficulty:   35,345,438,113 (+0.98%)
Adjust time:   After 357 Blocks, About 2.5 days
Hashrate(?):   254,316,772 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
Updated:   21:35 (7.2 minutes ago)

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   326235
Total BTC   13.406M
 
Difficulty   35002482026
Estimated   35338083863 in 357 blks
 
Network total   240333.034 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 626 s


  (+0.9599%) diff  jump


pretty flat for this jump.  will stay flat as long as btc stays low.  reasons are simple most hashing is done by the builders and margins are too tight for them to build out.

yeah there might be profit as low as 300.  but if you are running a 30ph setup and it has paid itself off.  

 the 30ph gets 431 coins a day.  if your power is 5 cents and you use .6 watts a gh   you spend 18mw a day that is  900 a day in power .  431 coins are 163000 a day

so after power your profit is 162000.  take salaries  a few other expenses and that plant earns 150k a day.   you don't need to expand.  if you keep coins flat and diff flat you just make big money day after day.

the interesting thing here is home miners can survive in this model.

   they need .8 watts  a gh and 12 cent power with 3% growth  and 380 usd coins ..  those numbers you do roi.

and if you could pull off 2% diff jumps you make pretty good money.

[mmeijeri]

yeah there might be profit as low as 300.  but if you are running a 30ph setup and it has paid itself off.  

Whether you've paid it off doesn't matter, whether you've bought it is what matters. Sunk cost fallacy.

[HellDiverUK]

Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches.   It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's.  If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math.

I just got a S3+ off eBay for £200.  It's basically unused.  I'm running it to replace a clutter of older Avalon-based ASIC boards that drank 1kW for about 180GH. 

The S3+ is doing a shade under 500GH with 360W at the wall.  I'm very happy to let the S3+ sit and churn away until it pops, especially when difficulty is sitting still.  I'm in Bitcoin for the long game - I like many have wasted hundreds of BTC buying pointless ASICs, and the only ones that turned a high profit were the Mk1 ASICMiner Blades.  Now I'm just happy to sit and churn away and hope BTC is worth a lot more in 5-10 years time.

[philipma1957]

Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches.   It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's.  If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math.

I just got a S3+ off eBay for £200.  It's basically unused.  I'm running it to replace a clutter of older Avalon-based ASIC boards that drank 1kW for about 180GH. 

The S3+ is doing a shade under 500GH with 360W at the wall.  I'm very happy to let the S3+ sit and churn away until it pops, especially when difficulty is sitting still.  I'm in Bitcoin for the long game - I like many have wasted hundreds of BTC buying pointless ASICs, and the only ones that turned a high profit were the Mk1 ASICMiner Blades.  Now I'm just happy to sit and churn away and hope BTC is worth a lot more in 5-10 years time.

good luck.  and here is hoping to lots of flat diff jumps.

[philipma1957]

still sorting these