The financial markets are starting to crash, abandon the fiat titanic

[RodeoX]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

I would predict this, but it frequently follows the stock market. I can't think of any reason why? It makes more sense to run counter to the market, like gold. Whats with that?

[2dogs]

I hope the stock market crashes... For the lulz

The aftermath won't be funny, even if you're not directly exposed.

No one said it would be pretty, and it's not a matter of if - but when.
Bring the reset on. 

We can fester and mire around, dragging it out some more, or reboot and start rebuilding.
The sooner the better, IMO.

[NotLambchop]

I hope the stock market crashes... For the lulz

The aftermath won't be funny, even if you're not directly exposed.

No one said it would be pretty, and it's not a matter of if - but when.
Bring the reset on. 

We can fester and mire around, dragging it out some more, or reboot and start rebuilding.
The sooner the better, IMO.

You realize that folks like you will prob'ly be the first to go, right?
"Gentlemen, I'll reward you handsomely with my bitcoin in exchange for your scrumptious can of spam.  Let us retire to some quaint bistro with public wifi, and indulge in decaf soy frappuccinos while we wait an hour for the six confirms."

[Robert Paulson]

I hope the stock market crashes... For the lulz

The aftermath won't be funny, even if you're not directly exposed.

No one said it would be pretty, and it's not a matter of if - but when.
Bring the reset on. 

We can fester and mire around, dragging it out some more, or reboot and start rebuilding.
The sooner the better, IMO.

You realize that folks like you will prob'ly be the first to go, right?
"Gentlemen, I'll reward you handsomely with my bitcoin in exchange for your scrumptious can of spam.  Let us retire to some quaint bistro with public wifi, and indulge in decaf soy frappuccinos while we wait an hour for the six confirms."

there is no need for any confirmations for a can of spam, the transaction value is low enough, if you double spend you won't be buying from him again.

[NotLambchop]

I hope the stock market crashes... For the lulz

The aftermath won't be funny, even if you're not directly exposed.

No one said it would be pretty, and it's not a matter of if - but when.
Bring the reset on. 

We can fester and mire around, dragging it out some more, or reboot and start rebuilding.
The sooner the better, IMO.

You realize that folks like you will prob'ly be the first to go, right?
"Gentlemen, I'll reward you handsomely with my bitcoin in exchange for your scrumptious can of spam.  Let us retire to some quaint bistro with public wifi, and indulge in decaf soy frappuccinos while we wait an hour for the six confirms."

there is no need for any confirmations for a can of spam, the transaction value is low enough, if you double spend you won't be buying from him again.

The gentleman riding bitch doesn't trust you

[Robert Paulson]

I hope the stock market crashes... For the lulz

The aftermath won't be funny, even if you're not directly exposed.

No one said it would be pretty, and it's not a matter of if - but when.
Bring the reset on. 

We can fester and mire around, dragging it out some more, or reboot and start rebuilding.
The sooner the better, IMO.

You realize that folks like you will prob'ly be the first to go, right?
"Gentlemen, I'll reward you handsomely with my bitcoin in exchange for your scrumptious can of spam.  Let us retire to some quaint bistro with public wifi, and indulge in decaf soy frappuccinos while we wait an hour for the six confirms."

there is no need for any confirmations for a can of spam, the transaction value is low enough, if you double spend you won't be buying from him again.

The gentleman riding bitch doesn't trust you

if im paying double he'll trust me.

[NotLambchop]

^No, Robert.
If he has seen any value in what you had, he would dismount that ghastly motor scooter, and proceed to purposefully and repeatedly place his foot into positive and constructive contact with your face, until such negotiations netted him a more favorable deal.

[KJO]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

The fall hasn't even begun yet genius. DJIA below 15K.....no support until 12.5K and it WILL retest. PPT is running out of ammo.

What u are doing is calling game set match in the 1st quarter. Sit your ass down and enjoy whats coming. When it gets here, then you can ask your question again.

[naplam]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

I would predict this, but it frequently follows the stock market. I can't think of any reason why? It makes more sense to run counter to the market, like gold. Whats with that?

It makes sense to follow risk trends. Bitcoin is a risky asset, like emerging market stocks but even worse. When there's a flight to safety in full risk aversion -we're on the verge of that right now- all the risky crap gets dumped and people buy treasury bonds, gold and so on. In a risk-off environment, there is no way some speculation-fueled asset like Bitcoin would thrive. Unless there's the rare circumstance in which you need bitcoin to circumvent capital controls (remember Cyprus?), so don't expect bitcoin to rally wildly unless (until?) there's mass defaults and bail-ins.

[Robert Paulson]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-16/pompous-prognostications-permanently-high-plateau-prophets

I sure hope its different this time...

[naplam]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-16/pompous-prognostications-permanently-high-plateau-prophets

I sure hope its different this time...

They'll say "no one could have predicted it" too, like they did after 2008. It's all bullshit and propaganda. I don't know how bad it will get but what I do know is we won't get the facts on the news. Just like it happened in 1929 and in every other market crash: they'll all deny the facts for quite a while. Kicking the can down the road after 2008 was incredibly risky and foolish and soon it will be the time to face the consequences of multiple rounds of QE and other financial trickery that in trying to postpone the inevitable, will make it worse.

[toknormal]

...so don't expect bitcoin to rally wildly unless (until?) there's mass defaults

With the world facing a deflationary trap, mass defaults might be exactly what's on the cards. The liquidity that's needed to cover the expansion of balance sheets simply from debt servicing alone is shrinking.

To me, it's not about risk on / risk off theory, it's more about the inherent stability characteristics of the financial system and, in particular, Debt/GDP ratios. At manageable Debt/GDP ratios, recessions are survivable and do not threaten stability because there is liquidity available to service all debt - even if the recessions last years.

On the other hand, once debt levels pass 100% GDP and even 200% in some cases, growth becomes an essential prerequisite for the system to remain stable. You can get growth in 3 ways:

[1] - "real" growth through increased economic activity (usually manifests as an increase in the velocity of money because the money base gets "spent" more often

[2] - increasing prices (The UK's doing that one by creating a housing boom and have managed to scrape themselves 0.7% of their 1% annual GDP growth from that)

[3] - monetisation. i.e. just print the fuckers to make the numbers work = Japan & US

The problem with 2 and 3 is that you kill the patient in the process so you have to stop it at some point in which case - if you haven't got [1] going by then - the only way out is mass defaults or debt mark downs. That will then spark some major banking issues by way of all kinds of carry trades unwinding etc

So all in all, anything can happen. The main reason I see cryptos as "safe haven" is:

[1] - they are unlevered
[2] - they are uncapitalised

Remember - "safe haven" and "risk assets" are relative terms. Cryptos will not be seen as risk assets if the financial system itself is perceived to be at risk and with imminent worldwide deflation on the cards, that might not be far away.

Look at the growth figures for Europe - they are piddling. And I'm sure even those are massaged to death just to squeeze a meagre 1% out of the books. None of these things in their own right would be a problem - low growth, high debt, 400% over-inflated money supplies, interest rates on the floor. It's WHEN THEY ALL HAPPEN TOGETHER that alarm bells start ringing.

[toknormal]

all the risky crap gets dumped and people buy treasury bonds

Just one thing about treasury bonds.

People buy treasury bonds because they're **perceived** to be safe. But that perception can be extremely volatile and is basically the whole reason we're in this position. All the over leverage and monetisation that's gone on in the last 5 years has been ALL about preventing treasuries from defaulting.

Treasuries WERE the safest asset until the bailouts - starting with the famous Bush $700 Billion shot in the arm. But AFTER the bailouts they were no longer the safest asset - they were risky as hell because all that over levered debt that grew up in the private sector suddenly got lifted and pinned onto the coat hangers of sovereign balance sheets.

Since then, governments in collusion with central banks have managed to maintain the ILLUSION of treasuries being safe havens because they've kept a $3.2 TRILLION dollar firehose pointed at the treasury markets to keep the yields down. Without that firehose they would have defaulted years ago.

The problem is that this game is coming to an end. The canary in the coalmine is Greece, who's yields took off the minute there was the slightest hint of global instability and prospect of euro deflation. What many US observers maybe aren't aware of is that Mario Draghi held a press conference a couple of weeks ago where he stepped back from declaring a policy of full Euro QE. That was one of the triggers for the start of the sell off in Euro stocks - the other being the ongoing deflationary signals coming out of the woodwork from here, there and everywhere.

So the idea that treasury bonds will be seen as a "safe haven" is not so solid in the absence of QE. Everything is starting to be up for grabs.

[naplam]

Agreed. Now that I read this.. we've seen this coming for a long time so it doesn't sound so scary anymore, but it should. We should be scared of what's coming.

Btw EU treasuries are also a complete charade, only the ECB is buying with its (lesser) firehoses. Italian and Spanish yields are a complete joke that don't reflect the real risk. And just recently French politicians have been resisting cutting back its lavish spending (do they think there's no limit to what they can take? do they think they won't get crushed when they hit the brick wall?). Greece is done anyway, has been for years, keeping it in the EU is part of the charade. Unfortunately the charade is quite costly and we're all going to pay for it.

[sidhujag]

Looks to be a full scale correction, how deep is anyone guess.. just need a catalyst for a crash... but looks like the 5 yr cycle is up and we head down to test support... I think before the final big crash a few years later.. and then we stick around without growth for a bout a decade.

[spiderbrain]

"Gentlemen, I'll reward you handsomely with my bitcoin in exchange for your scrumptious can of spam.  Let us retire to some quaint bistro with public wifi, and indulge in decaf soy frappuccinos while we wait an hour for the six confirms."

=D

[maker88]

...
But what if just one country accepts taxes in its own currency and also in Bitcoin? What would the other countries do?

What would make a country intentionally dilute its own currency?

belgium already takes taxes in btc soooo....youre dumb.

[Inedible]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

I would predict this, but it frequently follows the stock market. I can't think of any reason why? It makes more sense to run counter to the market, like gold. Whats with that?

I would think a week of market falls would cause some kind of rise (even if minimal) in Bitcoin but it seems that this isn't the case. It looks as if Bitcoin follows the market - maybe it's all going to the gold market?

[Inedible]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

The fall hasn't even begun yet genius. DJIA below 15K.....no support until 12.5K and it WILL retest. PPT is running out of ammo.

What u are doing is calling game set match in the 1st quarter. Sit your ass down and enjoy whats coming. When it gets here, then you can ask your question again.

I think you're only reading what you want to see... and perhaps you have anger issues?

[Inedible]

So hands up all those that predicted a rise in Bitcoin price when/if the markets started to fall?

I would predict this, but it frequently follows the stock market. I can't think of any reason why? It makes more sense to run counter to the market, like gold. Whats with that?

It makes sense to follow risk trends. Bitcoin is a risky asset, like emerging market stocks but even worse. When there's a flight to safety in full risk aversion -we're on the verge of that right now- all the risky crap gets dumped and people buy treasury bonds, gold and so on. In a risk-off environment, there is no way some speculation-fueled asset like Bitcoin would thrive. Unless there's the rare circumstance in which you need bitcoin to circumvent capital controls (remember Cyprus?), so don't expect bitcoin to rally wildly unless (until?) there's mass defaults and bail-ins.

This is what I think I'm seeing right now (happy to see evidence to the contrary) although I'd disagree that there was a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin from Cypriots. Is there a source for this?