Bear Slaughter Repeat Track v the school of Hodl

[jubalix]

the bear will have the same story in each price bracket, the price will fall.

0~$1
1~$10
$10~$100
$100$~1000 now.
$1000~$10K
$10K ~ $100K
$100K ~ $1M

The bear will be right between every bracket the price will go down, overall the the school of Hodl will prevail by orders of magnitude. A significant number of bears will be slaughtered each time when they miss the order of magnitude jump, their small 2x 3 x of gains will be insignificant.

Of those residual bears they will get slaughtered on the next order of magnitude, and some bears slaughtered twice as they continue being bears and miss out twice or thrice.

Eventually then most bears will disappear.

The majority of bears that continue on will be bulls who pick the right time that BTC has hits saturation uptake.

The more I look at alts, excepting a few, every IPO wants one thing....BTC. Every IPO strengthens BTC as its position is entrenched

However at least BTC Bears have BTC.

The biggest bears a certain state actors who hold FIAT only.

[MrBig]

the bear will have the same story in each price bracket, the price will fall.

0~$1
1~$10
$10~$100
$100$~1000 now.
$1000~$10K
$10K ~ $100K
$100K ~ $1M

The bear will be right between every bracket the price will go down, overall the the school of Hodl will prevail by orders of magnitude. A significant number of bears will be slaughtered each time when they miss the order of magnitude jump, their small 2x 3 x of gains will be insignificant.

Of those residual bears they will get slaughtered on the next order of magnitude, and some bears slaughtered twice as they continue being bears and miss out twice or thrice.

Eventually then most bears will disappear.

The majority of bears that continue on will be bulls who pick the right time that BTC has hits saturation uptake.

The more I look at alts, excepting a few, every IPO wants one thing....BTC. Every IPO strengthens BTC as its position is entrenched

However at least BTC Bears have BTC.

The biggest bears a certain state actors who hold FIAT only.

What is this, the hodler's prophecy or something?

[MNDan]

It's like the bears are polar bears, and Bitcoin is global warming.

[hodap]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

[TaunSew]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

[MrBig]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

The number of new members here has been shrinking for a while too. Only 3800 people registered here so far in October. I know not every bitcoiner has an account here, but I'd imagine that many of them do.

[touhonoob]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

Back to 2009
1 BTC doesn't worth a single penny 

[cbeast]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

It's like the press proclaiming an overnight success to someone that struggled for decades to achieve it.

[TaunSew]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

The number of new members here has been shrinking for a while too. Only 3800 people registered here so far in October. I know not every bitcoiner has an account here, but I'd imagine that many of them do.

Most people do not use forums but it can be used as an example where userbase expansion is slowing down on here and thus it could also be slowing down in the real world usage.

If someone within digital currencies can solve the mystery as to how to obtain exponential userbase growth (up to 200 million users) then they're going to be very wealthy.

[BTCtrader71]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

Userbase is only one relevant measure. Take a look at Pantera's BitIndex, which incorporates a variety of measures, user base being only one of them. Things are moving forward nicely according to the BitIndex.

Pantera has developed the Pantera BitIndex ... to assist us in forming our views on what may happen to Bitcoin in the medium term.

The BitIndex currently incorporates seven data series, weighted according to our opinion of how the data affects Bitcoin’s long-term success:

1. Developer interest on GitHub is the most important metric, as it anticipates applications which will make Bitcoin more useful.
2. Merchant adoption is a proxy for the ease of spending, which is important for consumer adoption.
3. Wikipedia views are a measure of how often and how extensively people are becoming educated about Bitcoin. It is very erratic, spiking when Bitcoin is in the news.
4. Hashrate is a proxy for security, a primary determinant of a digital currency’s success. Without significant hashing power, a blockchain can be easily attacked or manipulated (witness how many altcoins have succumbed to a 51% attack). A log scale is used because this series has gone up 8,489x since the beginning of 2012.
5. Google searches measure Bitcoin’s media presence, captured by the number of times “Bitcoin” appears in the news or is queried by interested parties.
6. User adoption as measured by wallets determines the extent and speed of the network effect. Because wallet growth has been so rapid (115x since the beginning of 2012), a larger weighing would overwhelm other metrics while using a log scale would have required an absurdly high weighting.
7. Transaction volume is a proxy for Bitcoin network uses. It is underweighted because of the arbitrary nature of some bitcoin flows.

[jubalix]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

The number of new members here has been shrinking for a while too. Only 3800 people registered here so far in October. I know not every bitcoiner has an account here, but I'd imagine that many of them do.

Most people do not use forums but it can be used as an example where userbase expansion is slowing down on here and thus it could also be slowing down in the real world usage.

If someone within digital currencies can solve the mystery as to how to obtain exponential userbase growth (up to 200 million users) then they're going to be very wealthy.

this is a good point, but then again there us a limited number of users that will join a forum, eg, there was probably a tcip forum that flattened out at some point, but the internet still exploded.

[fewcoins]

Reading your dreams about getting rich over night due to someone else's great electronic currency is hilarious! You guys crack me up, especially when all bitcoin prices are referred to as 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000! Cant forget the real dreamers who are talking about $1mil! LOL!!! WAKE UP!

[Markos]

Nobody will invest a lot of money until they see a real and deep correction of five years growth (Wave 1 - 0.1->32 USD, Wave 2 - 32->2 USD, Wave 3 - 2->266 USD, Wave 4 - 266->65 USD, Wave 5 - 65->1240 USD). But bitcoin has a bright future in long term, despite the long bear market. Therefore only early adopters with a lot of coins may have cause for stress and anxiety

[fewcoins]

Nobody will invest a lot of money until they see a real and deep correction of five years growth (Wave 1 - 0.1->32 USD, Wave 2 - 32->2 USD, Wave 3 - 2->266 USD, Wave 4 - 266->65 USD, Wave 5 - 65->1240 USD). But bitcoin has a bright future in long term, despite the long bear market. Therefore only early adopters with a lot of coins may have cause for stress and anxiety

Exactly there is no real money in this space... literally just dreamers and gamblers trying to get rich quick!!! 

[MrBig]

Highly doubt bitcoin can go up more than 1000. There is no easy money in the world.

If the status quo persists then I agree with you.  Only 500K-2M users and I haven't seen any indication of any large userbase expansion.   The internet back in 1989 had more users than Bitcoin currently does.

Userbase is only one relevant measure. Take a look at Pantera's BitIndex, which incorporates a variety of measures, user base being only one of them. Things are moving forward nicely according to the BitIndex.

Pantera has developed the Pantera BitIndex ... to assist us in forming our views on what may happen to Bitcoin in the medium term.

The BitIndex currently incorporates seven data series, weighted according to our opinion of how the data affects Bitcoin’s long-term success:

1. Developer interest on GitHub is the most important metric, as it anticipates applications which will make Bitcoin more useful.
2. Merchant adoption is a proxy for the ease of spending, which is important for consumer adoption.
3. Wikipedia views are a measure of how often and how extensively people are becoming educated about Bitcoin. It is very erratic, spiking when Bitcoin is in the news.
4. Hashrate is a proxy for security, a primary determinant of a digital currency’s success. Without significant hashing power, a blockchain can be easily attacked or manipulated (witness how many altcoins have succumbed to a 51% attack). A log scale is used because this series has gone up 8,489x since the beginning of 2012.
5. Google searches measure Bitcoin’s media presence, captured by the number of times “Bitcoin” appears in the news or is queried by interested parties.
6. User adoption as measured by wallets determines the extent and speed of the network effect. Because wallet growth has been so rapid (115x since the beginning of 2012), a larger weighing would overwhelm other metrics while using a log scale would have required an absurdly high weighting.
7. Transaction volume is a proxy for Bitcoin network uses. It is underweighted because of the arbitrary nature of some bitcoin flows.

While the size of the userbase may not be the only factor, I think it is an important one. We've had a lot of merchant adoption in the last year, the hashrate has exploded because of ASICS, developers are flocking to crypto in hope of attaining a slice of the pie, BTC has been featured in the media time and again, VC money has been investing in services, etc.

While tawnsew might be correct that most btc users don't have an account here, I am certain that the growth in users has been slowing down since the beginning of the summer, if not earlier. There is simply not enough demand for btc to meet supply and what is happening right now is that the userbase is lagging behind those other factors that you listed.

What btc needs right now is growth from everyday people. It would be better for a million new people to buy 1 btc each than to have some slimy wall street crook buy a million btc.