ToTheMoon.is -- Moneypot in space

[blockage]

So whats the concensus on this site? Safe or scam?

I doubt there is one. They removed the /stats page from the moneypot source, so we can't see how much they've won or lost.

As if that should prevent us from seeing their profit :D  ~18.35 BTC as of game #48983.

Here is a chart:

That's funny. Thanks, mysterious obsessive data collector!

Can you recreate most of a /stats report from your data too?

Well I can't say anything about deposits/withdraws. Here's what the /stats page would say about the bet statistics as of game #49803 without
the unterminated games 3, 5, 100, 20961, 21198, 22419 and 49804:

Code:

Total wagered:          1341.20335600 BTC
Players won in cashed:  1309.82564184 BTC
Players won in bonuses:   13.30836846 BTC
Players won in total:   1323.13401030 BTC
Our profit:               18.06934570 BTC

[dooglus]

Well I can't say anything about deposits/withdraws. Here's what the /stats page would say about the bet statistics as of game #49803 without
the unterminated games 3, 5, 100, 20961, 21198, 22419 and 49804:

Code:

Total wagered:          1341.20335600 BTC
Players won in cashed:  1309.82564184 BTC
Players won in bonuses:   13.30836846 BTC
Players won in total:   1323.13401030 BTC
Our profit:               18.06934570 BTC

So the players have won 1309 from the 1341 they wagered, meaning they lost 31.37771416, which is 2.34% of the amount they wagered.

The house edge is between 0 and 1%, it's 0.5% at 2x and most players tend to play lower than that. There's another 1% expected loss to the bonus scheme, so ignoring bonuses the house is taking 1.34% from players instead of the expected 0.5%. The house is doing around 2.5 times better than expected.

I wonder if that's why they hide their stats.

Have you done any analysis of the relative frequency of their crash points?

[Tothemoonguy]

I hide stats cause I never understand why Moneypot showed them in the 1st place. I don't know any site that isnt an investor site that shows you revenue. In place I decided to show a few non-revenue stats on the homepage.

Bank is atm up less then 18 BTC, the winnings i think are mostly from a 1-2 players who played very high stakes on the 1st day (same guy that was up almost 50 BTC). Everyone always got payed, at some point I moved close to 40 BTC to hot wallet to process the big player cash out.

[dooglus]

I hide stats cause I never understand why Moneypot showed them in the 1st place. I don't know any site that isnt an investor site that shows you revenue. In place I decided to show a few non-revenue stats on the homepage.

Bank is atm up less then 18 BTC, the winnings i think are mostly from a 1-2 players who played very high stakes on the 1st day (same guy that was up almost 50 BTC). Everyone always got payed, at some point I moved close to 40 BTC to hot wallet to process the big player cash out.

I guess it's about transparency, and gaining trust. You publish details of every game anyway, so everyone can see your revenue by adding up the stats for all games. That's presumably how this profit chart for your site was made.

Why wouldn't you show stats to players? It can help them feel good about your site when they see that your profit roughly matches your expected profit.

The chart (linked above) closely matches your description of the site profit. 18k profit on a 1.3k turnover, with a theoretical house edge of around 0.5%. It's not incredibly unreasonable that you've been so lucky.

[omahapoker]

yeah plus if we can see everyone stats then we know there no shnangans(spell-check) is going on...

[plock]

I really doubt this is going to end well.

My prediction is this site will either turn out to be a scam or the owners stubbornness and egotism with kill it.

If I was going to bet, I would say both is the most likely outcome.

Due the constant bad decisions made by the owner the site will suffer a loss of trust which in turn leads to a decline in profits. Seeing this, the owner freaks out because he's not making "mad scrilla yo!" like he was before and then he yanks the plug.

But only time will tell and I hope I'm wrong.

I hide stats cause I never understand why Moneypot showed them in the 1st place. I don't know any site that isnt an investor site that shows you revenue. In place I decided to show a few non-revenue stats on the homepage.

Have you learned nothing from the OSS debacle? It's only been about a week since that fiasco.

Essentially everything you've said regarding the OSS and now the stats is "My site, fuck you!"

What boggles my mind is why you continually make decisions that give people the impression that you don't care instead of building a site that people can trust by being open, upfront and honest.

People want to play on sites that they can trust, so be open about your dealings with them and its a win win.

It's not rocket science!

[blockage]

Have you done any analysis of the relative frequency of their crash points?

Yes I have plotted the historic crashpoint distribution against the expected one based on 51938 games:




which looks good to me. In comparison this is the chart for MoneyPot based on 279177 games (in reality it's this one, but I've rebalanced the 0x and 1x crashes):



I don't remember if the red line is the one for 1 in 100 or 1 in 101 chance of a 0x. I'm going to add generation of these and maybe some more charts to Shiba or play with amcharts when I find the time.

[dooglus]

Have you done any analysis of the relative frequency of their crash points?

Yes I have plotted the historic crashpoint distribution against the expected one based on 51938 games:




which looks good to me. In comparison this is the chart for MoneyPot based on 279177 games (in reality it's this one, but I've rebalanced the 0x and 1x crashes):



I don't remember if the red line is the one for 1 in 100 or 1 in 101 chance of a 0x. I'm going to add generation of these and maybe some more charts to Shiba or play with amcharts when I find the time.

That's very cool.

I suppose you're also automatically verifying that the hash published before betting starts matches the crashpoint?

If so, the only remaining way they could be cheating would be to predict the betting level per round, and chose lower crash points during busy times then balance it out with higher crash points when less action is happening. That's something that the coming provably fair system will address.

It's looking like the site really was just lucky I guess. Is that the conclusion you reached too?

[omahapoker]

dooglus, tell me when to bet there and i'll give you 60% profit

[kolloh]

Good job on those graphs blockage. Thanks for compiling that information for us.

[My Name Was Taken]

Someone, I think elm, said we should have a Provably Fair Police. I replied, I will be the first Director-General.

yes I still think that would be very helpful for the masses of btc players. for example each btc casino should be checked if they are provably fair by the Provably fair police (PFP). those casinos should pay a fee to the PFP and will have an icon on their site that will show that they are checked and accredited by the PFP.
now players can feel secure to play on those sites and players should stay away from sites not checked and accredited by the PFP.

and in case a player has lost and thinks he was cheated and lost  a lot of coins the PFP maybe can check his claims but the player will need to the PFP for their work.

just my 2 satoshis and just an idea and invite other users here to make it perfect if possible

Problem with this system is that the people being "regulated" are paying the "regulator" to give them a clean bill of health. Obvious conflict of interest.

And tip of the hat to blockage for those graphs and stats. Really well done mate!

[blockage]

I suppose you're also automatically verifying that the hash published before betting starts matches the crashpoint?

Yes, I started verifying at game #4888, that's a couple of hours after it was posted here on the forum. I also told josua on the chat that I would be doing this. Of the 53215 games so far I verified 47727 and they all check out. So I missed 600 games which is due to disconnects and/or unicode problems in socket.io-1.0.6.
 

If so, the only remaining way they could be cheating would be to predict the betting level per round, and chose lower crash points during busy times then balance it out with higher crash points when less action is happening. That's something that the coming provably fair system will address.

If the owners decide to update their code

It's looking like the site really was just lucky I guess. Is that the conclusion you reached too?

Yes, nothing looks fishy from my point of view. However, a provably fair system would address trust issues better than checking the crashpoint distribution.

[dooglus]

There are certainly a lot of other ways for the house to cheat:

* Bet Rejection  (Reject a bet on a good game)
* House whale  (Selectively lower the potential profit on a good game)
* Simulated lag  (Reject cashouts that occur a few miliseconds before game crash)
* Not terminating a game cleanly

You certainly seem to be an expert on cheating!

Good point though - all of those four would work even with provably fair crash point selection.

[enryk]

Just the first three. Not terminating a game is just simply taking peoples money, and is very detectable. I just put that in there, as there's still unterminated games in ttm

isn't that the same as Simulated lag?

[imp0ster]

There are certainly a lot of other ways for the house to cheat:

* Bet Rejection  (Reject a bet on a good game)
* House whale  (Selectively lower the potential profit on a good game)
* Simulated lag  (Reject cashouts that occur a few miliseconds before game crash)
* Not terminating a game cleanly

You certainly seem to be an expert on cheating!

Good point though - all of those four would work even with provably fair crash point selection.

House whale would be pretty noticable after investments start pouring in and the auto-cashout limit is higher.

[finnile]

There are certainly a lot of other ways for the house to cheat:

* Bet Rejection  (Reject a bet on a good game)
* House whale  (Selectively lower the potential profit on a good game)
* Simulated lag  (Reject cashouts that occur a few miliseconds before game crash)
* Not terminating a game cleanly

You certainly seem to be an expert on cheating!

Good point though - all of those four would work even with provably fair crash point selection.

House whale would be pretty noticable after investments start pouring in and the auto-cashout limit is higher.

Thats something impossible to detect, and investors have to understand the risks of that while investing.

[My Name Was Taken]

There are certainly a lot of other ways for the house to cheat:

* Bet Rejection  (Reject a bet on a good game)
* House whale  (Selectively lower the potential profit on a good game)
* Simulated lag  (Reject cashouts that occur a few miliseconds before game crash)
* Not terminating a game cleanly

You certainly seem to be an expert on cheating!

Good point though - all of those four would work even with provably fair crash point selection.

House whale would be pretty noticable after investments start pouring in and the auto-cashout limit is higher.

Just seems like there is no reason to offer investments on a site like this. Both of these sites are already running fine without it, and doing so would essentially be sharing profits by the site owner. In the case of MoneyPot, didn't the site just sell for 100 btc? And now the rumor is the site will take investments, which will further delay the amount of time it takes for the new owner to recoup the cost he's already put into the site. So any attempt to offer investments should be viewed with a very skeptical eye. We've all seen enough sites go down to question the motives of anyone offering to profit-share on their site at this point. It definitely won't be for me, but you all make up your own mind, and for the love of god, be careful. We've all learned by now there is no recourse when someone steals your coins: EveryDice, Dicebitco.in, and DiceNinja thieves all got away with it.

[dooglus]

House whale would be pretty noticable after investments start pouring in and the auto-cashout limit is higher.

Whales are detectable, but naturally occurring whales and house whales presumably look exactly the same.

Just seems like there is no reason to offer investments on a site like this. Both of these sites are already running fine without it

Moneypot isn't doing fine really. As I understand it Eric was running far too high a risk offering 2 BTC max profit per round. Even with his unofficial investors we were still risking far too much to be safe. When you bear in mind that the average house edge is 0.5%, and to be relatively safe you need to only be risking around half that percentage of your bankroll per round, in order to safely offer 2 BTC per round you need 2 BTC to be 0.25% of your bankroll. Or in other words you need a bankroll of 800 BTC. Eric told me he had around 70 BTC when he launched the site, and so it's clear he was playing a very risky game with his savings.

and doing so would essentially be sharing profits by the site owner. In the case of MoneyPot, didn't the site just sell for 100 btc? And now the rumor is the site will take investments, which will further delay the amount of time it takes for the new owner to recoup the cost he's already put into the site.

That's not necessarily the case. Taking investments means the site can offer bigger max profits, bringing in bigger players, more attention, and bigger profits. That's the idea anyway. It's quite possible that the profit pie grows enough that even though he's sharing it, he still gets more than he would if he had no investors. And the variance will be less too.

So any attempt to offer investments should be viewed with a very skeptical eye. We've all seen enough sites go down to question the motives of anyone offering to profit-share on their site at this point. It definitely won't be for me, but you all make up your own mind, and for the love of god, be careful. We've all learned by now there is no recourse when someone steals your coins: EveryDice, Dicebitco.in, and DiceNinja thieves all got away with it.

That's always worth bearing in mind, whenever you send your coins to a site.

I sent 20 BTC to bitdice.me a while back, turned it into 21.x and tried to withdraw it. 14 hours later I still didn't have my coins, and was starting to fear that yet another investment dice site had turned into a scam. I eventually got my coins, but it made me realise that when you're playing dice, you don't just have to beat the 1% house edge, you also have to beat the X% chance that the site refuses to return your balance when you ask them to. I haven't deposited to anywhere but moneypot since then, and even then it has only been relatively small amounts.

[omahapoker]

There are certainly a lot of other ways for the house to cheat:

* Bet Rejection  (Reject a bet on a good game)
* House whale  (Selectively lower the potential profit on a good game)
* Simulated lag  (Reject cashouts that occur a few miliseconds before game crash)
* Not terminating a game cleanly

You certainly seem to be an expert on cheating!

will you pipe down, I'm trying to learn from the best

[Mist]

I personally think the owner will be the demise for this site. I am pretty much sure this guy isn't dmf but you can never be 100% This guy just does not seem smart enough to run a site like this and it to not go down hill quickly when shit happens. I mean look at the un-terminated games, and his laziness to show transparency. He also doesn't carry himself as professionally as lets say Eric or Ryan.

I just don't see a reason to play here, when you have a longer established and semi-well trusted site already. The risk seems silly to me but maybe there is something I'm missing.