Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm)

[Wary]

I'm wondering what would happen if everybody here start using the LazyWhale signals. Would expected return go up (self-fulfilling) or down (stampede > queues > slippage; front-running; contrarians etc)?

[1echo]

good idea but practice may say otherwise

[TonyT]

That's all I'm asking for. (also, sorry for the earlier ad hominems)

Thou shalt insulteth me for my incompetence to put together a proper indicator (which is very much a possibility), but not attacketh with the blunt sword that is the ETH. EMH (don't know why I had to pull Zurich into this)

I "make it up as I go along", to use your words (I assume you mean if I can say if my results would pass a significance filter). But I think I said more than once that I'm aware that there's no guarantee of continued profits in the historic range. Hence, the "public experiment", as I called it from day 1.

I'll note this however: one of the most robust factors (across markets, if I understood them correctly - I skimmed the article) Harvey et al  mentions is, non-surprisingly, momentum. Which is ..  ta daa .... what my indicator is built up on as well. I hereby claim statistical significance by vague similarity ^{(that should be a thing, I think)}

From your prose and sentence structure, you seem like a nice guy, possibly a college major, and not your typical bitcoin bitcon conman.  But I did notice a bit of a red flag going through this thread: something about a version number, as if you are going to sell this program of yours.  Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman?

[intighet]

But I did notice a bit of a red flag going through this thread: something about a version number, as if you are going to sell this program of yours.  Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman?

Version numbers are standard practice even for personal coding projects simply because version control is important when adding to or debugging existing code. Your projections are odd and unwarranted.

[TonyT]

But I did notice a bit of a red flag going through this thread: something about a version number, as if you are going to sell this program of yours.  Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman?

Version numbers are standard practice even for personal coding projects simply because version control is important when adding to or debugging existing code. Your projections are odd and unwarranted.

We'll let the author comment?  If he says he intends to sell this program, will you eat crow publicly?

[Raystonn]

Why would it matter?  Do you always expect services for free?

[TonyT]

Why would it matter?  Do you always expect services for free?

Yes.   At worse, what the guy could do is give out the software for free, and if it works start charging for it sometime in the future, but not now.  Otherwise IMO it's a scam.

[sidhujag]

Why would it matter?  Do you always expect services for free?

Yes.   At worse, what the guy could do is give out the software for free, and if it works start charging for it sometime in the future, but not now.  Otherwise IMO it's a scam.

Cmon now mr online pub key generator, you should be the last guy here to try to blow the whistle on a scam.

[Wary]

Don't feed the troll.

[LazyWhale]

Hi Just joined. This is perfect for me

[btcxyzzz]

I would say this is simple EMA10/21 crossover strategy on 3d graph. Can't be wrong if you do that way. Too bad I realised it too late...

[oda.krell]

I would say this is simple EMA10/21 crossover strategy on 3d graph. Can't be wrong if you do that way. Too bad I realised it too late...

Nah, not really, take a look at the actual targets. Pretty far off. 3d EMA21/10 ACO would have sold right into the post-consolidation breakdown, while my signal came during the late consolidation itself (example: EMA ACO sell in February 2014 at <700, my signal January 2014 ~800)

Actually, guy in here who said earlier the signals look a lot like 1d Ichimoku cloud was closer, but that's still not how it works under the hood.

I've said all I'm willing to say right now about the mechanics: a) it's momentum based (so in that sense, it does resemble your EMA ACO method), b) there's some notion of "trend confluence" captured, I believe. Now, I'm curious myself to find out how it performs on new data.

[oda.krell]

But I did notice a bit of a red flag going through this thread: something about a version number, as if you are going to sell this program of yours.  Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman?

Version numbers are standard practice even for personal coding projects simply because version control is important when adding to or debugging existing code. Your projections are odd and unwarranted.

We'll let the author comment?  If he says he intends to sell this program, will you eat crow publicly?

For someone who seems to be program himself (you do, I guess?) you sure a paranoid about my version numbers. Parts of this algo are 'fixed', some parts are readjusted over time without my doing, and then there are some manual adjustments (like the conditional stops I put in in the last version) that require keeping track of those changes. That's why version numbers.

And no, this isn't a "pay for signals" deal, even though there's nothing wrong with that either (I've subscribed to more than one TA newsletter in the past, and gladly paid for the service.)

If it turns out I really have something useful on my hands (and I am absolutely not sure about that myself yet), I will just stop posting the signals if I note they fuck up my own trading. Right now, that's not a danger (no tradeable signals yet), so why not make it public and talk about it? Guess you're not an academic, otherwise you'd get that there can be "selfish" motivation besides financial means

[TonyT]

If it turns out I really have something useful on my hands (and I am absolutely not sure about that myself yet), I will just stop posting the signals if I note they fuck up my own trading. Right now, that's not a danger (no tradeable signals yet), so why not make it public and talk about it? Guess you're not an academic, otherwise you'd get that there can be "selfish" motivation besides financial means

No I'm not an academic and yes I do code.  As you say, try it and see, and if it's really valuable there's no need to sell it:  why would you sell something to 1000s of people that's a gold mine for you?  Just use it and get rich.  However, if you do get rich, don't forget your cyber-friends that got you there.... my Bitcoin address is in my profile.  You're welcome. ;-)

[bucktotal]

my "lazy-whale" signal flipped 2 days ago.

the signals from my system are: (edit, i added the price around the dates)

- sell: 2012-02-20 - $5.75
- buy: 2012-04-16 - $4.75

- sell: 2012-09-24 - $11.85
- buy: 2012-10-23 - $11.35

- sell: 2013-05-13 - $122
- buy: 2013-08-05 - $92

- sell: 2013-12-30 - $850
- buy: 2014-05-13 - $450

- sell: 2014-07-21 - $600
- buy: 2014-10-20 - $385

[sumantso]

Any action to be taken yet?

oda.krell, I think you should add a big button in the first post shouting 'SELL SELL' or 'BUY NOW OR SUFFER'

[oda.krell]

Sorry, nothing going on yet. Still the same price regions I mentioned earlier: rise to ~400 will most likely trigger a BUY, a fall to ~340 (without finding support there) will push the next buy signal further into the future. As long as price doesn't move, nothing changes.

And re: the buy/sell button... Only next to an equally big button saying "Method very much experimental still. Follow at your own risk."


EDIT: Added a 'Signal Updates' section to the beginning of the first post

[windpath]

Man, since you posted this BTC has been as flat as I've ever seen it, well since the 16th anyway, with a slight trend downwards, does your algo predict a bottom at all, or does it just wait for the shift?



I think we all see the coming UP, just a question of when...

The bottom has been called many times, have we already seen it?

I think so but just my 0.02 bits...

[piramida]

Even if you guys are not whales (let's call you dolphins ), or even for people with even less - don't banks get suspicious when you receive/send a couple thousand back and forth?

Sorry for my innocence, I really want to understand, and to be prepared to use the "lazy kitteh" algorithm once the next bubble comes

I'll answer as a dolphin - no, they don't get suspicious, they call me if it's a large amount (not a couple of thousand, anything below 10k is off the radar in any bank that I know) and I explain what that money is. They don't have a problem with me selling/buying commodities. If you are unsure, talk to them - with banks, being transparent is the way to go.

[oda.krell]

Man, since you posted this BTC has been as flat as I've ever seen it, well since the 16th anyway, with a slight trend downwards, does your algo predict a bottom at all, or does it just wait for the shift?



I think we all see the coming UP, just a question of when...

The bottom has been called many times, have we already seen it?

I think so but just my 0.02 bits...

It's 90% momentum. It's about as unpredictive as it gets

(not completely true of couse, after all, even a momentum driven signal makes /some/ prediction. But it's not predictive in the sense that EW is, for example, saying that from observation 1, 2 together with rules A, B, we are likely to have seen the bottom or not)