Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm)

[oda.krell]

EDIT. didnt read the disclaimer 3 very carefully...

Hehe, thanks for adding that.

Yes. Assuming we are indeed going up, a good discretionary trader might want to wait for a dip first. But that's really not what this signal is intended to do: ideally, it fires once every few months, into a larger up- or downtrend, with little consideration for where price is in the smaller resolution - because the next signal (if things work out as intended) is at a price so far away anyway that the small difference of the dip doesn't matter. At least, that's how it worked in the back-test.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

OK, let's live test LW, boldly entering right now with a hundred bucks.

http://pbfcomics.com/228/

[inca]

Excellent. Good luck Oda.

[dasource]

Looking forward to seeing how this develops!

[sgbett]

I've been holding out for lower to buy back a bit more but it feels exactly like waiting for $1 back in bitcoinica days. That never happened and instead bitcoinica swallowed my fiat.

So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong

Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....

[windjc]

Oda,

When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.

By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.

Either way its a win win!

[firstlast]

Is this close? http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2lxkqk/daily_discussion_tuesday_november_11_2014/clz4jez

[oda.krell]

I've been holding out for lower to buy back a bit more but it feels exactly like waiting for $1 back in bitcoinica days. That never happened and instead bitcoinica swallowed my fiat.

So this time round I'll pin my actions on someone else's indicator so I can blame them when it all goes wrong ;)

Everything I have on bitstamp has just been converted to BTC. It's feeling like about time....

Haha, you bastard. So now I have blood on my hands, huh? Well, let's see how it goes. Right now yesterday's little rally that pushed the signal change looks like it's already losing steam again. Clench your ass cheeks, that's all I'm saying :)

Is this close? http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2lxkqk/daily_discussion_tuesday_november_11_2014/clz4jez

Closer than any other suggestions :) MA50 is part of the signal conditions.

Oda,

When, if ever, will you share your indicator? Why such a secret? I could understand if it was a weekly trading signal that you didnt want to give to the masses, but this is long term signal. Its harmless to let us know.

By letting us know we might even be able to help you refine it. Although, if not, we could just praise you more precisely for your brilliance.

Either way its a win win!

I don't know... I'm an intellectual hoarder? :D Seriously though: I don't think the exact choice of parameters is that remarkable, but the way I found them is maybe novel. Finance is not my field, so I have no idea yet how to go about it, but I think, somewhere far in the back of my mind, I'm wondering if I can maybe squeeze a publication out of that aspect. There, I said it.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

publication, shmublication: what matters is if it makes you money.

if you did hit upon some way to systematically earn profits, by the time it is published it won't be reproducible anymore, and all that would matter was the money you made while it lasted.  (unless, of course, you are an academic, and your income stream is affected directly or indirectly by whether you get one more paper published.)

[sumantso]

First signal, that ends my hopes of sub $300 prices. I am going to wait for a few more days to try and catch any dips.

[sidhujag]

bull is back!

[keystroke]

Well, you have even more blood on your hands now as of a few minutes ago. I just bought about 25% of what I sold last November. It is my first real trade actually because I believe in HODL. But I feel this is a good entry point and it will be fun to get into the game right now especially with this cool thread.

I had an order ready to go on Coinbase when the huge $300 wall was being eaten away but my account had dropped below its previous verification level for some reason. So I used that an excuse to say forget it. Of course I still should have bought at that moment!

Now I have a better excuse for watching the forums. But today I will explore.

[600watt]

If the data is accurate, 6847 Bitcoin was bought yesterday

(There was a mistake in my previous update)

looks like mr silbert heard your signal, oda 

[sgbett]

I believe!

[trade2winnn]

After reading through this I have no choice but to buy back in for 15% of what I sold back in Nov-Jan. I'm thinking your algo may be simple as ever, but constructed with some reliable info that you have been collecting for many days,months,years. I kind of have a guess to what the info you have been collecting is and how you have been collecting it. I have a friend that has been collecting market data correlated to hashrate/mining daily updates and he has told me the algorithmic charting program isn't even worth selling.

[keystroke]

PS So good so far. $1 short of $420 at the moment. Won't turn this into a rampant price posting thread though.

Edit: $420 the second I posted.

[Tariq]

Thanks Oda 

[Tzupy]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

[sickpig]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

Out of curiosity what is wave C? are you referring to Elliott TA?

[oda.krell]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

Why yes, listen to this man, he's absolutely right of course:

Just like the usual interpretation of a failure to break daily MA20 is hugely bullish ("if the market is weak, it's actually strong"), or how a green MACD histogram candle is seen as a strong sell signal by experienced traders.

In other news, some people don't know when to close their overleveraged short position.

 

EDIT: In case it's not that clear, the above is me being sarcastic. I don't agree with the poster that the lw buy signal is actually 'bearish', and I was making up wrong interpretations of signals as a way to make fun of his.
After thinking about it  a bit more, while I still don't agree at least I can see where he's coming from (basically, he thinks if we go up already now, we'll have to come down harder a bit later)


Glad to see the move up that triggered the signal change didn't fizzle out immediately, as I feared it would at first.

Thanks also for the kind words by some in here. However, it's only fair to remind everyone: the actual (first) test of the signal's profitability is when the corresponding 'sell' comes in.

I personally hope it's going to be at a substantially higher price level, but in either case, I'll report it when it comes in. For now, probably best not to fight the market too stubbornly, i.e. go short if you want, but I wouldn't get married to any short position currently. At least mid-term, the trend is more likely to be up than down in my opinion, and the most obvious interpretation of the LW momentum signal is just that, really.