Wouldn't it be nice... (the LazyWhale algorithm)

[seleme]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

That's some serious bullshit honestly.

I don't know what kind of signal Oda made but if daily MA based signal is turned green than it's nonsense to say that is midterm bearish.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

You said we were going to double top at $420 but we just smashed through that, how's that bearish now?

[Tzupy]

Maybe most people don't understand, but oda.krell's indicator turning green now is actually bearish medium term.
It means that the market hasn't yet left wave C, and THE bottom wasn't 275$, but is still to come.
I didn't yet work on new guesstimates, but IMO it seems wave C will only end in February 2015 below 200$.

You said we were going to double top at $420 but we just smashed through that, how's that bearish now?

Both short term bullish count and bearish count were invalidated in quick succession, this means there was a flaw in the longer term count.
When I'll finish the new count guesstimates I'll post it here. I genuinely believed wave C would end soon, I was wrong.

[seleme]

That's OK, nobody wins it each time, it's just that your words about Oda's daily signal that doesn't make any sense.

[oda.krell]

For fairness sake, I get now what tzupy meant :
Under the assumption of his preferred EW count(s), my signal is mid long bearish because it means a more drastic bottom will form eventually, correct?

My point is then, without subscribing to any additional assumptions, a momentum based signal like mine, or weekly sar, is bullish. But I can see your point, even when I don't share it.

[Tzupy]

That's OK, nobody wins it each time, it's just that your words about Oda's daily signal that doesn't make any sense.

It makes sense if you think it a bit deeper. I agreed that oda.krell's signal works, but the interpretation is different.
And I don't understand why he got pissed off at me, because in his own words: "...similar way to how May played out".
The May uptrend topped at about 680$ and then deflated to 275$, that's about 60%. If the current uptrend
just topped at 454$ (it may go a bit higher the next days, I don't know, so I'll wait a a few days with my scenario), then
a 60% correction would bottom at about 182$, and about 3 - 4 months from now.

If you want to see a less bearish EW opinion than mine, RyNinDaCleM believes in a double bottom in the second half of January:


PS. The mistake I made with the EW count was to count the April movements as one sub-wave moving fast and furious, when it probably was just an extension.

[oda.krell]

Yes, sorry, overreacted a bit. See last comment.

[sumantso]

First signal, that ends my hopes of sub $300 prices. I am going to wait for a few more days to try and catch any dips.

That worked out well

Being too greedy by half. Oh well, will wait for a pullback now.

[Tzupy]

Yes, sorry, overreacted a bit. See last comment.

OK, we're cool. I have a suggestion for you, if you are willing to back test your indicator on some 2013 MtGox data (Bistamp looks "washed out").
If your indicator can use a shorter time frame (about 4x shorter), then it might flip from red to green about the 17th May and the 17th June 2013.

[adpinbr]

following

[oda.krell]

Yes, sorry, overreacted a bit. See last comment.

OK, we're cool. I have a suggestion for you, if you are willing to back test your indicator on some 2013 MtGox data (Bistamp looks "washed out").
If your indicator can use a shorter time frame (about 4x shorter), then it might flip from red to green about the 17th May and the 17th June 2013.

No, I'm afraid that won't work. Ryn asked a similar question in the beginning: while I have vague idea how to make it scale down, the actual implementation still escapes me, so I can't test it on smaller scales yet (or rather, the results suck)

[keystroke]

Just like the usual interpretation of a failure to break daily MA20 is hugely bullish ("if the market is weak, it's actually strong")

Can you explain that please?

[oda.krell]

Just like the usual interpretation of a failure to break daily MA20 is hugely bullish ("if the market is weak, it's actually strong")

Can you explain that please?

Sarcasm?

[keystroke]

Just like the usual interpretation of a failure to break daily MA20 is hugely bullish ("if the market is weak, it's actually strong")

Can you explain that please?

Sarcasm?

Ah sorry I missed it. I thought this might be a very sophisticated form of technical analysis.

[oda.krell]

First signal, that ends my hopes of sub $300 prices. I am going to wait for a few more days to try and catch any dips.

That worked out well

Being too greedy by half. Oh well, will wait for a pullback now.

Looks like you got your pullback... Still planning to buy in?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Still a buy signal?  

Personally, I'm fairly bullish, after this retrace (which might go a little bit lower).

[oda.krell]

Still a buy signal?  

Personally, I'm fairly bullish, after this retrace (which might go a little bit lower).

Of course

300 to 320 would be the region where it would flip again after a while, but everything so far is just noise when looked at from the trend scale of this signal.

[Tzupy]

My current (bearish) interpretation of the results of the indicator during the bear market. If correct, it should turn red in about a month.
It shows good entry and exit points though.

[oda.krell]

My current (bearish) interpretation of the results of the indicator during the bear market. If correct, it should turn red in about a month.
It shows good entry and exit points though.

Possible. Not saying I find it likely, but possible.

Note that if my momentum signal comes in early enough during your hypothetical (5) - similar to where it came in (3) -  it would still be profitable overall, and not a mistake to enter now.

But I guess we don't disagree on that point, just where we're heading in the longer term, i.e. on the question if we're going to make a new low sub-275 or not. I say 'probably not', you say 'probably yes'.

[sumantso]

First signal, that ends my hopes of sub $300 prices. I am going to wait for a few more days to try and catch any dips.

That worked out well

Being too greedy by half. Oh well, will wait for a pullback now.

Looks like you got your pullback... Still planning to buy in?

Will wait a bit to see if your magic box turns out a new signal. Weekend is here so I guess I should wait for a day or to two to see how it goes.

I know, I know, getting greedy again.