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Author Topic: Good time to order BFL Single?  (Read 2504 times)
aqrulesms
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May 20, 2012, 04:05:04 PM
 #1

Hello,

I am attempting to start a true mining investment in bitcoins.  Currently I am mining with a single 5850 and would like to start out with a real money making model to make some small cash.

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?

The wait time for these units is quite long, at 60 days, so this is something I am worried about.

Or should I go ahead and borrow money from my parents(Yes they are lending me some, I have all my money deposited for College) and go ahead with the mining?

Maybe I am worrying too much?

Thank you,

Aqrulesms

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ice_chill
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May 20, 2012, 04:15:21 PM
 #2

Hello,

I am attempting to start a true mining investment in bitcoins.  Currently I am mining with a single 5850 and would like to start out with a real money making model to make some small cash.

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?

The wait time for these units is quite long, at 60 days, so this is something I am worried about.

Or should I go ahead and borrow money from my parents(Yes they are lending me some, I have all my money deposited for College) and go ahead with the mining?

Maybe I am worrying too much?

Thank you,

Aqrulesms

I'd say go College first Smiley
aqrulesms
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May 20, 2012, 04:43:50 PM
 #3

Hello,

I am attempting to start a true mining investment in bitcoins.  Currently I am mining with a single 5850 and would like to start out with a real money making model to make some small cash.

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?

The wait time for these units is quite long, at 60 days, so this is something I am worried about.

Or should I go ahead and borrow money from my parents(Yes they are lending me some, I have all my money deposited for College) and go ahead with the mining?

Maybe I am worrying too much?

Thank you,

Aqrulesms

I'd say go College first Smiley

Starting to sound like my parents.  Cool

Any serious answers?  Grin

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SgtSpike
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May 20, 2012, 05:10:10 PM
 #4

I wouldn't right now, personally.  The halving is a big concern, and could push payback into a year from now (including delivery time).  That taken into account, some companies are saying they will have ASICs ready by Q4 2012, which could further decrease the payout.

I could afford to buy more BFL's at this point, but I'm in a holding pattern... more of a "wait and see", at this point.  My next order will probably be ASIC miners.
Lethos
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May 20, 2012, 05:31:36 PM
 #5

Depends what you are going to college to do;
Is your ideal career path something you can do without a degree?

If yes, then work you way into that industry from the bottom and work up, without college and do bit mining on the side. Use the cash as a slow investment, don't drop it all at once in a single tech. Something better is always round the corner and you'll want to save capital for that.
BFL isn't necessarily the best choice atm, check out it's competition too.

If no, go to college. Very few make a fortune with bit mining, most make a nice bit (pun intended) of income but it took a lot of investment to get there. You'll be better of getting that degree and the job and bit mining with spare cash rather than using up all that investment cash for college.

Also remember, what reason are you going to college for, is it for you, or for your parents?
Speaking as someone who really loved the idea of following in my dad's footsteps, now a programmer and started my own company after dropping out of university after my 2nd year. Sure I had my success, but my student loan debt was entirely unnecessary if I had realised I didn't need it to do what I do now. I was already a gifted programmer before university, I didn't learn anything in the first 2 years, made a few contacts though. It just gave me time to plan what I wanted to do. I made plenty more contacts and learnt far more after leaving university. It doesn't suit everyone.

To round up, I am starting to take this hobby seriously, since it can make me a small bit of money, doing something that is kinda fun, but it will never replace my full time job. That is what you need to consider too, you job to support yourself has to come from multiple streams when where your passion lays isn't a reliable source.

Lethos Designs | UK BTC Seller -  Local Bitcoins | BTC OTC Rating | 1EFhXfX9uXsbXBF3LC69GiVfS3SHCsyMR1
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Stephen Gornick
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May 20, 2012, 05:39:40 PM
 #6

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?


December 2012.  Like in 7 months.

Mining is competitive.  In a competition there are certain properties that will favor one competitor over another.    With Bitcoin mining, there are three main properties that matter:

 1.) How much does your electricity cost.  Right now the breakeven for GPU mining is about $0.20 per kWh.  With FPGA mining, the breakeven drops significantly but the upfront capital cost is nearly double.  (i.e., a $500 GPU with $0.15 per kWh electricity might pay for itself sooner than a $500 FPGA at $0.10 per kWh will).
 2.) Capital spent on FPGA mining is speculation regarding future unknowns.  It is an asset with little market value other than for mining.  So if there is a technological advancement with a big jump in efficiency (e.g., ASIC) that would cause difficulty to rise faster than the exchange rate and thus it would mean that you cannot mine profitably using an FPGA.  You would then have paid a lot of money for what ends up being an expensive book-end.  Is that capital still available even after being aware of the risk (or are there other places with better return or less risk than mining for it?)
 3.) Technical skills of the operator and capacity to learn and administer a mining operation.

aqrulesms
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May 20, 2012, 06:37:40 PM
 #7

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?


December 2012.  Like in 7 months.

Mining is competitive.  In a competition there are certain properties that will favor one competitor over another.    With Bitcoin mining, there are three main properties that matter:

 1.) How much does your electricity cost.  Right now the breakeven for GPU mining is about $0.20 per kWh.  With FPGA mining, the breakeven drops significantly but the upfront capital cost is nearly double.  (i.e., a $500 GPU with $0.15 per kWh electricity might pay for itself sooner than a $500 FPGA at $0.10 per kWh will).
 2.) Capital spent on FPGA mining is speculation regarding future unknowns.  It is an asset with little market value other than for mining.  So if there is a technological advancement with a big jump in efficiency (e.g., ASIC) that would cause difficulty to rise faster than the exchange rate and thus it would mean that you cannot mine profitably using an FPGA.  You would then have paid a lot of money for what ends up being an expensive book-end.  Is that capital still available even after being aware of the risk (or are there other places with better return or less risk than mining for it?)
 3.) Technical skills of the operator and capacity to learn and administer a mining operation.


Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Also, putting the 5850 into equation along with the BFL would mean I am producing

347 Mhash/s + 832 Mhash/s = 1,179 Mhash/s

~$3 a day at this time

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?



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drlatino999
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May 20, 2012, 06:47:32 PM
 #8

With the 25 BTC halving coming in December 2013, or possible market crashes/fluctuations, is there any concern to the failure to recoup my investment?


December 2012.  Like in 7 months.

Mining is competitive.  In a competition there are certain properties that will favor one competitor over another.    With Bitcoin mining, there are three main properties that matter:

 1.) How much does your electricity cost.  Right now the breakeven for GPU mining is about $0.20 per kWh.  With FPGA mining, the breakeven drops significantly but the upfront capital cost is nearly double.  (i.e., a $500 GPU with $0.15 per kWh electricity might pay for itself sooner than a $500 FPGA at $0.10 per kWh will).
 2.) Capital spent on FPGA mining is speculation regarding future unknowns.  It is an asset with little market value other than for mining.  So if there is a technological advancement with a big jump in efficiency (e.g., ASIC) that would cause difficulty to rise faster than the exchange rate and thus it would mean that you cannot mine profitably using an FPGA.  You would then have paid a lot of money for what ends up being an expensive book-end.  Is that capital still available even after being aware of the risk (or are there other places with better return or less risk than mining for it?)
 3.) Technical skills of the operator and capacity to learn and administer a mining operation.


Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Also, putting the 5850 into equation along with the BFL would mean I am producing

347 Mhash/s + 832 Mhash/s = 1,179 Mhash/s

~$3 a day at this time

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?




That's the big question, but in reality the supply doesn't decrease. It just stops growing as fast.

Sappers clear the way
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May 20, 2012, 06:49:42 PM
 #9

Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Heh, that's nearly free.  Yes, that gives you an advantage over competitors for Bitcoin mining then.    Where is this?, ... that's really, really low!

With that low of an electric rate, you'ld probably be better off getting some used GPU hardware now and start mining now than waiting for an FPGA (in a purely financial sense).

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?

It's not a surprise though to most speculators, so it may already be priced into the current exchange rate.

Additionally, it could be the event that many GPU miners are holding out for and when it occurs, they will dump their GPUs for bitcoins and spend their hoard of bitcoins on new hardware, whatever that hardware at the time happens to be (new FPGA design, or ASIC, or whatever).   That might put as much downward pressure on the price as the lower new supply (3,600 BTC fewer issued, per-day) would cause.

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May 20, 2012, 07:17:02 PM
 #10

Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Heh, that's nearly free.  Yes, that gives you an advantage over competitors for Bitcoin mining then.    Where is this?, ... that's really, really low!

With that low of an electric rate, you'ld probably be better off getting some used GPU hardware now and start mining now than waiting for an FPGA (in a purely financial sense).

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?

It's not a surprise though to most speculators, so it may already be priced into the current exchange rate.

Additionally, it could be the event that many GPU miners are holding out for and when it occurs, they will dump their GPUs for bitcoins and spend their hoard of bitcoins on new hardware, whatever that hardware at the time happens to be (new FPGA design, or ASIC, or whatever).   That might put as much downward pressure on the price as the lower new supply (3,600 BTC fewer issued, per-day) would cause.

Can you recommend any cards? My current PC has only 2 PCI-e slots (actually 3, but the 3rd is a bit slow) and I have around $600 to spend.

Or should I just build a fresh PC that is dedicated to mining?

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May 20, 2012, 09:02:35 PM
 #11

If u can find 5870  then buy them Smiley

5970 or 6990 for the dual GPU Cards. So with your PC u could fit 4 GPUs in it.

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May 21, 2012, 11:32:21 AM
 #12

How do you get such a low rate ?

Looks to me like your parents are paying half the bill  Cheesy
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May 21, 2012, 11:56:22 AM
 #13

If u can find 5870  then buy them Smiley

5970 or 6990 for the dual GPU Cards. So with your PC u could fit 4 GPUs in it.

I have some 5870 to sell  Smiley

Replaced almost all my GPU-miners due to heat (summer time) with Ztex-FPGA's.

I would sell: 2x ASUS 5870 (factory overclocked), 2x ASUS 5870 the normal one's, 1x ASUS Matrix Platinium 5870, 1x XFX 5870 and 1x XFX 5870 with a defect fan.

All GPU were running undervolted and underclocked.

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May 21, 2012, 12:35:06 PM
 #14

Did or doing the same here Smiley

I have a single GPU miner left for testing etc. 4x 5870 that i will sell in the near future (Germany)

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May 21, 2012, 08:48:03 PM
 #15

Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Heh, that's nearly free.  Yes, that gives you an advantage over competitors for Bitcoin mining then.    Where is this?, ... that's really, really low!

With that low of an electric rate, you'ld probably be better off getting some used GPU hardware now and start mining now than waiting for an FPGA (in a purely financial sense).

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?

It's not a surprise though to most speculators, so it may already be priced into the current exchange rate.

Additionally, it could be the event that many GPU miners are holding out for and when it occurs, they will dump their GPUs for bitcoins and spend their hoard of bitcoins on new hardware, whatever that hardware at the time happens to be (new FPGA design, or ASIC, or whatever).   That might put as much downward pressure on the price as the lower new supply (3,600 BTC fewer issued, per-day) would cause.

I am starting a mining company and we already have a location that has even lower rates.   

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May 22, 2012, 03:07:32 AM
 #16

Electricity is only $0.03/kWh

Heh, that's nearly free.  Yes, that gives you an advantage over competitors for Bitcoin mining then.    Where is this?, ... that's really, really low!

With that low of an electric rate, you'ld probably be better off getting some used GPU hardware now and start mining now than waiting for an FPGA (in a purely financial sense).

My main worries is, what will happen when the block reward halves? Shouldn't the exchange value rise in compensation due to a decrease in supply?

It's not a surprise though to most speculators, so it may already be priced into the current exchange rate.

Additionally, it could be the event that many GPU miners are holding out for and when it occurs, they will dump their GPUs for bitcoins and spend their hoard of bitcoins on new hardware, whatever that hardware at the time happens to be (new FPGA design, or ASIC, or whatever).   That might put as much downward pressure on the price as the lower new supply (3,600 BTC fewer issued, per-day) would cause.


I am starting a mining company and we already have a location that has even lower rates.   

Where would that be? Next to a nuclear reactor? Seriously that is pretty damn low!

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May 22, 2012, 03:42:28 AM
 #17

There are 2 or 3 counties in rural Washington where there is an abundance of hydroelectric power, but not enough high-tension lines to get the power to, say, Seattle. Thus, they almost (but not quite) give it away.

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