Do Fractals Repeat? A Bitcoin Weekly Preview | Bitstamp Btce Huobi OKCoin Kraken

[Cryptoalerts.net]

Price on Bitstamp above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Since a small correction on the 16th of October, price has been supported my both the Middle 100MA and 200MA Bollinger Bands.

After a short breakout rally on the 18th of October, price has been compressed between the $385-$392 area.

For this weekly preview, two fractals have been identified, that show similarities and may hint how price action may play out.


Fractal A [290914-031014] : Approximately 83 Bars/Candles before a significant price movement.

1. RSI failed nearly 13hrs before the 5MA confirmed a bearish cross on the 20MA. Since then it continued declining sharply along with price.
2. MACD confirmed a bearish signal roughly 2hrs before price started declining and entered negative momentum territory.
3. Both the 200MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands started compressing, with the 200MA (Middle BB) acting as strong resistance (Pink line).
4. Both the 100MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands started compressing, with the 100MA (Middle BB) acting as strong resistance (White line).
5. The 20MA acted as short term resistance and guided prices lower (Yellow line).


Fractal B [161014-Today] : Approximately 77 Bars/Candles. Waiting for any significant price movement.

1. RSI has failed twice on the 69 level, almost 13hrs before the 5MA confirmed a bearish cross on the 20MA. Since then it has not reversed and price has shown no signs of clear direction.
2. MACD confirmed a bearish signal 2hrs before price started compressing. It has not yet entered the negative momentum territory.
3. Both the 200MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands have compressed, with the 200MA (Middle BB) acting as strong support (Pink line).
4. Both the 100MA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands have compressed, with the 100MA (Middle BB) acting as strong support (White line).
5. Since the 5MA bearish cross on the 20MA, the latter has been acting as short term resistance (Yellow line).


On the long side: At the time of writing, a significant difference has been identified between the two fractals. That is the support offered by both the Middle 100MA and 200MA BBs. This support has been tested and proven strong. Hence, as long as both hold, the bullish case will remain healthy. A strong break above the Upper 100MA BB at $398 will increase the odds of propelling price up to $410 and possibly further.

On the short side: There has to be a combination of weaknesses across the board in order for any meaningful decline to begin. First, MACD must enter the negative momentum territory. Moreover, the 20MA shall continue to act as resistance. Furthermore, price must breach both the Middle 100MA and 200MA BBs to the downside. Both aforementioned BBs are very close to each other at $385, hence, this point is the one that has to be initially broken. A strong break below this point will probably lead price to test support at the Lower 100MA BB at $373. If the latter is broken too then odds will increase significantly to test the Lower 200MA BB support at $354.

https://i.imgur.com/EFdHbbG.jpg

Overall: Price has been consolidating. Bollinger bands are compressing. Support must stay intact.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $398 – Price Target $410+ | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range $385-$392 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below $384 – Price Target $354 | Probability: 25%

Our Stance: Maintaining a long exposure, a bit conservative though.


Price on Btc-e above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $392 – Price Target $403+ | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range $380-$387 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below $378 – Price Target $353 | Probability: 25%


Price on OK Coin above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above ¥2436 ($397) – Price Target ¥2501 ($408) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ¥2353 ($384) – ¥2419 ($394) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below ¥2346 ($383) – Price Target ¥2192 ($357) | Probability: 25%


Price on Huobi above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above ¥2434 ($397) – Price Target ¥2497 ($407) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range ¥2355 ($384) – ¥2411 ($393) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below ¥2345 ($382) – Price Target ¥2194 ($358) | Probability: 25%


Price on Kraken above both the Middle 100BB & 200BB support | 1hr time interval

Outcome Probabilities: (very narrow price targets due to narrow range)

Long: On a strong break above €311 ($396) – Price Target €318+ ($405+) | Probability: 35%
Neutral: Price Range €302 ($384) – €310 ($394) | Probability: 40%
Short: On a strong break below €299 ($380) – Price Target €284 ($361) | Probability: 25%


https://i.imgur.com/vmXA7Hb.png?1


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The Cryptoalerts.net Team

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[chessnut]

This is not a fractal, it is a pattern or a shape you see has occured in a different place. Fractals are a very different and more interesting concept.

Look at your shape under a microscope. Do you see the shape again? do you see another shape that has self similar qualities? Look again closer. does this quality occur on every scale you can observe? then it is a fractal system.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Mandelbrot_sequence_new.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9VMfdG873E

[Nrcewker]

It seems to be pointless

[chessnut]

It seems to be pointless

Fractals occur in many natural systems. They are relevant to how the market behaves.

[Cryptoalerts.net]

It seems to be pointless

Fractals occur in many natural systems. They are relevant to how the market behaves.

@chessnut
Thank you for your comments.

Fractals in candlestick charts assist in identifying reversal points in the market. Patterns consist of many fractals. When fractals tend to repeat, they produce similar patterns.

The basic rule is that a fractal consists of 5 candles. However, when zooming out, a specific part of a pattern can be used as a general fractal (for simplicity and understanding) in order to investigate repetition of a trend or a turning point and help to justify a thesis.

It is the same with relation to different time intervals. For example, the 1hr when broken down it consists of 2x30min bars, or 4x15min bars, or 12x5min bars etc.

Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.

[Cryptoalerts.net]

It seems to be pointless

Thank you for your comment.

We would like to see a justification of "pointless" by providing an appropriate chart, as this will be more productive for everyone.

[abs350]

Bla bla bla

Some more robert prechter inspired bullshit

I call bullshit on this entire publication. Go hype your trading advertising bullshit somewhere else

[Cryptoalerts.net]

Bla bla bla

Some more robert prechter inspired bullshit

I call bullshit on this entire publication. Go hype your trading advertising bullshit somewhere else

Judging by your general comments, the vocabulary you use is your favorite.

In relation to trading, what does EW theory have to do in this subject?

Why don't you provide a chart to justify your opinion and help others too?

[chessnut]

Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.

The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it?

The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing.

the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small.

[abs350]

Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.

The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it?

The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing.

the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small.

What you have just written is 100% bullshit.

[chessnut]

Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.

The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it?

The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing.

the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small.

What you have just written is 100% bullshit.

why dont you give a sophisticated answer? because you cant

[intighet]

Although beautiful, fractals found in nature have nothing to do with chart fractals.

The market is a natural system. Supply and demand are as old as the hills and can be simplified to a science, economics. Forces of the market act to restore equilibrium, it is the model of a simple sine wave. Because of interference, when external forces apply change to the market new waves must superimpose themselves in simple natural ratios of each other and expand into fibonacci ratios in complex systems. Just as every note on the piano is derived from a single pitch and the ratios 1/2 and 2/3. How can the market then behave naturally without fractals when there are practically an infinite amount of large and small forces at work within it?

The waves that roll up on the beach in cycles of seven at a precise interval are the result of a random system. every ripple cause by the gusty winds of a pressure system superimpose to form enormous wave. you cant predict the ripple, you can predict the wave but they are one and the same thing.

the grand average size of retracements in the dow jones calculated from opening price, closing price and average price is equal to 0.618. thats all retracements, great and small.

What you have just written is 100% bullshit.

You are wrong. The underlying commonality between beach waves and price graph is stochasticity. By your other comments it is clear you know little about this. I suggest that you research.