Why (and when) the next bubble start.

[Wary]

Here are the options:

1. The seeming regularity of bubbles is just coincidence. Next bubble can happen any time.
2. There is 22 months period. Jan13 + 22mo = Beginning of November.
3. Last rally started 3.5 months after bottom. September + 3.5mo = Mid January 2015.
4. Bubble is 3 months late. Ergo (by Taleb's rule of thumb) we should wait 3 more months, till end of January 2015.
5. Rally happens each 8 months. Oct13 + 16mo = beginning of February 2015.
6. Taleb2. Downtrend goes for 11 months. Ergo, wait another 11 months, till September 2015.
7. Things move 3 times slower than in 2013, so Oct13+3*8 = October 2015.
8. Super-wedge apex. The top line going through 1163 and bottom line going through 275 will cross by November 2015.
9. Taleb3. We are waitning for ETF for 15 months. Ergo, by Taleb's rule, another 15 months, till January 2016.
10. After the next halving. March 2016.
11. After casino & pron sites all swithch to bitcoins. End of 2016.
12. Bubbles happened at ealry stage only: high incertanity -> wild guesses -> wild swings. Now it's realistic and professional, so no more bubbles.
13. Something else. (What and when?)

EDIT:
14. BitLicense. March-Apri 2015.

[brg444]

Voted anytime.

Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option

[Wary]

Voted anytime.

Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option

Thanks. What time should it happen?

[brg444]

Voted anytime.

Issuance of the NYDFS BitLicenses could've been an option

Thanks. What time should it happen?

Well first period of comments ends this week.

Should be followed by a second draft which I expect will require an additional 90 days of public feedback.

Depending on how long it takes for second and final draft to be approved, my conservative guesstimate would be we are looking at March-April 2015.

I'm crossing fingers for a quicker resolution though  

[Gumbork]

Next halving!!, half the dumping triple the price...

[nextblast]

Somewhere in 2016.
Because the BTC mined at that time is halved, which means supply to market is suddenly cut by 50%. This will bump the price significantly.

[NeuroticFish]

I also think it's gonna happen at the end of the winter. But a little bit earlier than March-April. I'd say February-March 2015.

[EsaEzekiel]

Does anyone think that it's the bubbles now?

[Omikifuse]

It is random

But we can have the final capitulation in 2016, because of the halving

[Elwar]

When the ETF happens the price will rise significantly.

[findftp]

It already started october 5th. We are now heading for the top which will be before november 20th according to my prediction which I advertise for months already.
<-- look left.

I came to my prediction by interpolating 2 different types of bitcoin charts.
Although it seems wrong, I still stick to my prediction untill november 20th

[brg444]

Somewhere in 2016.
Because the BTC mined at that time is halved, which means supply to market is suddenly cut by 50%. This will bump the price significantly.

My thinking is price should rise significantly before the halving, in expectation of the reduced supply

[Tzupy]

Next halving, but it's August not March 2016.

[asdlolciterquit]

I've voted anytime, just because i really don't know. But i don't think is random...

[Ibian]

Assuming I'm right that someone with far too much money is pushing the price down to buy cheap off the market, we could stay down here until the next halving at least. Why would he stop?

Other than that, the next halving obviously. Price will either have to double or a lot of miners will lose a lot of money and the network will slow down until the next adjustment. Don't think whoever is playing with the price wants to hurt the network like that, but who knows.

Random events like the winkle etf could do it, or someone deciding to keep a few billions in btc. But those are unknowns.

So I guess the next halving is my bet based on known factors.

[findftp]

... Random events like the winkle etf could do it,...

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

[Ibian]

... Random events like the winkle etf could do it,...

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

Which helps us plebs how?

[BombaUcigasa]

... Random events like the winkle etf could do it,...

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

Which helps us plebs how?

Realizing your wealth plan:

1. Stop being a pleb
2.
3. Profit!

[Ibian]

... Random events like the winkle etf could do it,...

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

Which helps us plebs how?

Realizing your wealth plan:

1. Stop being a pleb
2.
3. Profit!

Sure. How does one magic five digit coins into existence or enough fiat to buy same?

[findftp]

... Random events like the winkle etf could do it,...

These events are *not* random.
They are carefully planned and all insiders made sure that they are loaded to the max before it goes public.

Which helps us plebs how?

Realizing your wealth plan:

1. Stop being a pleb
2.
3. Profit!

Sure. How does one magic five digit coins into existence or enough fiat to buy same?

You should have been there in 2010.
Otherwise, stop complaining and enjoy the ride with any amount you have, just like everybody else.