What are the odds of the BTC reaching 20 USD this summer?

[Lovecrafter]

I've heard some pretty wild stuff. Someone claimed they'll get to 100 USD, though I don't think that will happen. Hey, if it does - fantastic! The way the quasi-bubble is looking now, I think they'll drop. So, opinions?

I'm guessing 15 USD per 1 BTC at the end of Summer.

[Lovecrafter]

Damn it, I had the wrong tab open and posted in the incorrect forum. Mods, could you please remove this? Don't ban me! xD

[kidgorgeous]

Unlikely, though certainly possible. Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against inflation which certainly is increasing despite the US governments official CPI numbers. But to reach 20USD would require a huge influx of dollars, just a quick look at mtgox's market depth it would take *at least* 100,000USD to bring it to 12USD so unless the euro seriously declines due to at least two defaults by the PIIGS countries or the dollar really declines due to the end of quantitative easing it won't happen. Those are two scenarios where btc would appreciate greatly however there are scenarios where it floats in the 4-8USD range such as things in the world economy just keep chugging along and get better.

[Ian Maxwell]

I'd say reaching 20 USD before the end of summer is much more likely than not. This is because I think the correct valuation of a bitcoin at the moment is higher than 20 USD. Consider: if Bitcoin becomes even a niche success---say, the standard currency for online gambling in a few regions---it will have to be valued at well over 1000 USD to accomodate all the demand. I'd say there's at least a 2% chance of that happening, which gives a value of 20 USD even if the only other possible outcome were total loss.

Over summer, many bitcoin users who are in school---like myself---will have more time to pursue Bitcoin-related projects. I have a business idea or two myself that I'd love to implement, and plenty of friends who still haven't heard my "sales pitch" and whom I'll see this summer. We're also seeing more and better press hits lately. It's probably a matter of months before Gavin is being interviewed on network TV. Meanwhile, look how fast we moved from $1 to $2---do you really think the jump from $10 to $20 will be much harder? I would only be mildly surprised to see us touch $20 this month.

[byronbb]

I was thinking last night about the price of a contract that paid out 1 BTC a day for 100 days. 

[nster]

I was thinking last night about the price of a contract that paid out 1 BTC a day for 100 days. 

I'll sell it to you for 800$