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Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

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usagi
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May 25, 2012, 07:59:37 AM
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John (John K.)
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May 25, 2012, 08:01:46 AM
 #2

Actually this is relevant for anything over 2% a month, although it takes a little longer to work out:

The math is simple. Let's say you deposit 2,000 bitcoins at 7% per week.

If you reinvest your earnings, then after 1 year you would have 67,000 bitcoins.

After 2 years you would have over 2.2 million bitcoins ($10 million US). This is more than 25% of all the bitcoins in the world.

Sometime into the ninth month of the third year you would own every bitcoin which could ever possibly be mined.

Conclusion: One of three things will happen within 3 to 12 months, in order of likelyhood (this is my unfounded opinion):

1. The 7% stuff (anything over 3%) will close it's doors to new investment.
2. The interest rates will be cut to between 1 to 3% a week, down from 7.
3. The business will close and return investors' money.
3. It will blow up (in some unknown way) and investors will lose their money.

One of the above three things is guaranteed to happen within 2 years and 9 months.

I could be wrong. What do you think?

Makes sense, but I remember that Pirate has an upper limit on the deposited coins if I'm not wrong.

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May 25, 2012, 08:08:33 AM
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Also try to take a look at the money inflation BTC is currently at, with 50 new coins created every 10 minutes. (Slightly overpriced imho) mining bonds alone return ~2% per month.

7% per week however is a different beast, this is just to counter "everything above 1%/month is suspicious".

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May 25, 2012, 09:26:57 AM
 #4

spendcoins.com with Jeremy seems to charge 10%
"You will receive bitcoins based on the Mt Gox USD 24h high->xe.com's AUD exchange rate + 10%."

And people seem to be happily paying him. Rather than use his money, he could borrow at 7% and massively expand the business quickly.
The key is finding people willing to buy large amounts of Bitcoins.

This may not be pirates game, but it shows that 10% per transaction is definetly possible and being done, and it seems successful too Smiley

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May 25, 2012, 03:54:51 PM
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I think I stated before either on here or Reddit that Pirate and GPUMax are washing coins for Silk Road (which is actually owned/operated by one of its biggest vendors that creates new profiles on a semi-regular basis). I thought about going into detail about how I figured this all out, but it only really would help the feds catch them. Pirate is using your money and charging the Silk Road operators and large vendors a significant amount to wash their coin, which he passes on down in the form of "interest".

Now that you know, you guys can chill out on the "Zomg its a scam" posts, ok?

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May 25, 2012, 04:02:33 PM
 #6

Pirate himself contradicts your claim:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.0;topicseen

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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May 25, 2012, 04:03:49 PM
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You're making assumptions.  That's only going to get you hurt.  Very few people have reinvested the whole time without taking profit.

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May 25, 2012, 04:18:24 PM
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What you call interest doesn't necessarily mean interest. There is a limit to accounts within a certain range. But if others choose to call the payments 'interest' that is on them.

Relating it to stocks, bonds, etc... isn't correct. Something might tell me if he was paying 'interest' on a company bond from the company, it would be very low indeed. But he has no need to issue bonds. Stocks, well the value of them isn't controlled by him but the people buying and selling them. (Usually based off of news and earnings but who knows these days with stocks regularly trading at 400 times earnings.)

Start thinking along the lines of Profit Sharing. Or it could be something completely different like sha256(ponzi(ponzi(sha256(ponzi)))).

Or Sha256(honey(sha256(pot))) lol...

You know someone said somewhere in one of the many posts, follow the money. Not bad advise. Along with know who you give your money to, at least in large quantities.


meh... tired. Night night.

Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 25, 2012, 04:24:18 PM
 #9

Pirate hasn't said he would pay 7% forever, and if he had limitless capacity to accept deposits then the price of Bitcoin would increase, in which case he might still be able to offer 7% real interest, just not 7% nominal interest.

But in any case, this isn't a big deal because banks change their interest rate all the time. All the pass-through bonds either run for a short period of time or have language allowing them to change their dividend structure, so unless pirate defaults the only people who should lose money are people who leveraged to invest in him (and I'm perfectly OK with that).

I suppose it's valuable for people to have some idea when the interest rates will go down though. I truly hope people aren't investing in pirate assuming he can grow arbitrarily large and continue to pay his rates.

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May 25, 2012, 04:25:24 PM
 #10

Pirate himself contradicts your claim:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.0;topicseen

What are you talking about? 7% is economically unsustainable. There is a simple, hard, mathematical ceiling to bitcoin, and at 7% a week you double every 10-11 weeks. This is so profitable that it will draw people to create anonymous identities and deposit with pirate. It will cause pirate to close it's doors to new investment. That's not a claim, it's a mathematical certainty. It doesn't really matter how he's doing it, which has nothing to do with what I said.

And I think it's pretty obvious from following what he has said above that he is NOT laundering coins.

I understand and agree with your claim.  My comment was about this claim:

I think I stated before either on here or Reddit that Pirate and GPUMax are washing coins for Silk Road (which is actually owned/operated by one of its biggest vendors that creates new profiles on a semi-regular basis). I thought about going into detail about how I figured this all out, but it only really would help the feds catch them. Pirate is using your money and charging the Silk Road operators and large vendors a significant amount to wash their coin, which he passes on down in the form of "interest".

Now that you know, you guys can chill out on the "Zomg its a scam" posts, ok?

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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May 25, 2012, 04:32:30 PM
 #11

Pirate himself contradicts your claim:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.0;topicseen

What are you talking about? 7% is economically unsustainable. There is a simple, hard, mathematical ceiling to bitcoin, and at 7% a week you double every 10-11 weeks. This is so profitable that it will draw people to create anonymous identities and deposit with pirate. It will cause pirate to close it's doors to new investment. That's not a claim, it's a mathematical certainty. It doesn't really matter how he's doing it, which has nothing to do with what I said.

And I think it's pretty obvious from following what he has said above that he is NOT laundering coins.

Ah... Ok.

Yes, there is a limit, once, the market is saturated. Even cornered markets follow certain rules unless you want to destroy your control over a market and the value of the market itself.


Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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May 25, 2012, 05:02:55 PM
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Anybody who openly admits to committing a crime deserves the jail time they get. If you were smart enough to set up a huge money laundering operation involving SR, bitcoin, and most of the users on the network then I really don't think you are going to go on a public forum and admit to it. Really.

That being said there are probably a dozen users of the bitcoin community that would balk at finding out such allegations are true. Everybody else around here would probably demand a bigger cut.
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May 25, 2012, 05:46:37 PM
 #13

Pirate himself contradicts your claim:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.0;topicseen

Of course he does. The part that tipped me off to exactly what was going on was when I followed a few particular trades that were made to certain individuals that ended right back in my wallet again. Then I started watching other trades through the same particular addresses. Then I started doing more, the details of which I can't go into on a public forum.

I guess I can't say for certain he knows he's working for SR. Maybe he's been working without asking questions like a good little mute. Then he can deny working for them, because he doesn't know who he's working for. I was under the impression he knew exactly who he was working for, though. If I were a betting man, I would still bet he's part of the crew, despite his denial. I'll explain why.

This might come as a surprise to you, but at any given point in time, three-or-more different largely trusted vendors of various products on SR are the exact same group of individuals. They rotate usernames in order to prevent detection, but sometimes they make mistakes and actually ship the same product in each other's merchandise. They typically tend to do this when they are moving on to their next username. They don't just have a "close relationship" with SR, either. They run it, or well, the geeks that run it know exactly who their biggest vendors are because they are close friends. I guess I thought, given who pirate is, that he was also part of this group of real life friends, but maybe for some dumb reason he just randomly appears on the forums in Fall 2011 with a trusted group of people needing significant amounts of money for "loans".

usagi is right, this won't continue forever, because he put a limit on how much you can invest. This limit exists because at some point they intend to either close up shop, or they understand that the authorities will be confiscating pirateat's wallet, and every coin in it will be property of the US federal government.

You want FUD? Ignore my warning now. Ignore usagi's warning. I complained that Bitcoinica could only make money at their customer's expense several months ago, and now people can't get their money back and the price of BTC is increasing. It's a little hard to call someone out on spreading FUD when you're still being secretive about exactly how you're able to find someone willing to lose about 7% in interest on a legal enterprise, and that's even before his cut. I can't imagine anyone in their right mind taking on those rates, even the foreign nationals I spoke to about remittance payments said 5% was pushing it.

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May 25, 2012, 06:05:26 PM
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I complained that Bitcoinica could only make money at their customer's expense several months ago, and now people can't get their money back and the price of BTC is increasing.

So you knew Bitcoinica's active wallet was going to be stolen? Quite a claim.
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May 25, 2012, 07:03:25 PM
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Pirate himself contradicts your claim:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.0;topicseen

Of course he does. The part that tipped me off to exactly what was going on was when I followed a few particular trades that were made to certain individuals that ended right back in my wallet again. Then I started watching other trades through the same particular addresses. Then I started doing more, the details of which I can't go into on a public forum.

I guess I can't say for certain he knows he's working for SR. Maybe he's been working without asking questions like a good little mute. Then he can deny working for them, because he doesn't know who he's working for. I was under the impression he knew exactly who he was working for, though. If I were a betting man, I would still bet he's part of the crew, despite his denial. I'll explain why.

This might come as a surprise to you, but at any given point in time, three-or-more different largely trusted vendors of various products on SR are the exact same group of individuals. They rotate usernames in order to prevent detection, but sometimes they make mistakes and actually ship the same product in each other's merchandise. They typically tend to do this when they are moving on to their next username. They don't just have a "close relationship" with SR, either. They run it, or well, the geeks that run it know exactly who their biggest vendors are because they are close friends. I guess I thought, given who pirate is, that he was also part of this group of real life friends, but maybe for some dumb reason he just randomly appears on the forums in Fall 2011 with a trusted group of people needing significant amounts of money for "loans".

usagi is right, this won't continue forever, because he put a limit on how much you can invest. This limit exists because at some point they intend to either close up shop, or they understand that the authorities will be confiscating pirateat's wallet, and every coin in it will be property of the US federal government.

You want FUD? Ignore my warning now. Ignore usagi's warning. I complained that Bitcoinica could only make money at their customer's expense several months ago, and now people can't get their money back and the price of BTC is increasing. It's a little hard to call someone out on spreading FUD when you're still being secretive about exactly how you're able to find someone willing to lose about 7% in interest on a legal enterprise, and that's even before his cut. I can't imagine anyone in their right mind taking on those rates, even the foreign nationals I spoke to about remittance payments said 5% was pushing it.

So, you just admitted on shopping at Silk Road... You better watch the feds, you moron!
In fact I'll even go as far as saying you are the operator of Silk Road.
How do I know? Because you distribute money to people who are stupid enough to fall for scams.

Oh, wait: Nobody needs to worry, when Pirate runs aways with everyones money, Raize will still be here to cover our losses and pursue Pirate on the courts to recover his money, like he so much likes to boast about doing every time he bails out someone.

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May 25, 2012, 09:07:49 PM
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So, you just admitted on shopping at Silk Road... You better watch the feds, you moron!
In fact I'll even go as far as saying you are the operator of Silk Road.
How do I know? Because you distribute money to people who are stupid enough to fall for scams.

Oh, wait: Nobody needs to worry, when Pirate runs aways with everyones money, Raize will still be here to cover our losses and pursue Pirate on the courts to recover his money, like he so much likes to boast about doing every time he bails out someone.

Hmm, that would be an interesting position to be in - he could be the debt collector because he knows everyone's SR shopping habits, and could use that for blackmail....



Grin

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May 25, 2012, 10:59:18 PM
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So, you just admitted on shopping at Silk Road... You better watch the feds, you moron!
In fact I'll even go as far as saying you are the operator of Silk Road.
How do I know? Because you distribute money to people who are stupid enough to fall for scams.

Oh, wait: Nobody needs to worry, when Pirate runs aways with everyones money, Raize will still be here to cover our losses and pursue Pirate on the courts to recover his money, like he so much likes to boast about doing every time he bails out someone.

Hmm, that would be an interesting position to be in - he could be the debt collector because he knows everyone's SR shopping habits, and could use that for blackmail....



Grin

Waiting to see what blackmail he will use against me for "his" 22.5 BTC.

I never use SR Kiss

His business is indeed strange. Give BTC to everybody that is scammed and somehow get the scammer to payback but not remove the tag ( A1BITCOINPOOL ).

I would much rather pay smart1985 not Raize. But they could be the same person for all I care ( not likely though ).
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May 26, 2012, 07:16:00 AM
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"FWIW the 1.3%+ rates coming from bitcoin mining are every bit as unsustainable"[/b]
Restaurants sell for about what they profit in a 2 year period. Which comes out to about 1%. Bitcoin mining takes less investment, but far more risk. I think it averages out about right. 
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May 26, 2012, 07:37:14 AM
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"FWIW the 1.3%+ rates coming from bitcoin mining are every bit as unsustainable"[/b]
Restaurants sell for about what they profit in a 2 year period. Which comes out to about 1%. Bitcoin mining takes less investment, but far more risk. I think it averages out about right. 
Restaurants are extremely risky money-pits. I'd loan to a wise fellow with 100 gfx cards hashing away in a warehouse and a year's experience mining instead of a fellow with 100 pounds of foie gras and a year in culinary school any day of any week. If you think owning a mining farm is more risky than owning a restaurant, you're out of your mind. I'd rather have a god-damned boat.

FLAME ON!

Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
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May 26, 2012, 01:07:33 PM
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"FWIW the 1.3%+ rates coming from bitcoin mining are every bit as unsustainable"[/b]
Restaurants sell for about what they profit in a 2 year period. Which comes out to about 1%. Bitcoin mining takes less investment, but far more risk. I think it averages out about right. 
Restaurants are extremely risky money-pits. I'd loan to a wise fellow with 100 gfx cards hashing away in a warehouse and a year's experience mining instead of a fellow with 100 pounds of foie gras and a year in culinary school any day of any week. If you think owning a mining farm is more risky than owning a restaurant, you're out of your mind. I'd rather have a god-damned boat.

FLAME ON!

There are plenty of established businesses that are a low risk. You can screw it up if you don't know what your doing. I was thinking something simple like dominoes or subway. You can't just buy some fancy restaurant, hire a manager and hand him the keys. If you do it right sales should be the same as before you bought it. If you have to hire someone because you don't know how to run a restaurant or a mining farm, you should not be doing it.
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