Am I missing something? (or is BTC destined for greatness and soon)

[bitcoinrocks]

Getting back on track:

Really, no one can point out a (possibly-)fatal flaw or danger other than regulation?

[sublime5447]

Really, no one can point out a (possibly-)fatal flaw or danger other than regulation?

There are so many reasons that add up to failure if you ask me, but success or failure is subjective. If success is having something to speculate on or having something to transact in a black market other than paper fiat, than bitcoin is a success.

The reasons I see it as a failure is the following.

1. It works off the scarcity model.
2. It is easily manipulated and controlled.
3. The myth of decentralization is a lie.
4. The myth of a means to save money by avoiding excess fees is a lie.
5. Bitcoins value is depended on being denominated in USD or other national currencies
6. The ease of governments to tax, regulate, track and generally control bitcoin.
7. Massive energy cost to maintain and secure network. (massive mining cost)
8. Violates the regression theorem
9. Isnt a good store of value
10. Is an awful unit of account.. you cant denominate a mortgage in bitcoin
11. It doesn't solve any problems for the general population they dont want to protect their own money, thats why they use the bank.

and many more, it wont have mass adoption and yes you are believing the hype.  
  
 

[Chef Ramsay]

Getting back on track:

Really, no one can point out a (possibly-)fatal flaw or danger other than regulation?

In my eyes, there's nothing the minds working the blockchain can't overcome to keep the future intact like a well-oiled machine. Furthermore, over-regulation doesn't seem likely at this point.

[keithers]

Bitcoin will
Not be big anytime soon. Im throwing my towel. I cant wait 3 ,5 years to ho to the "moon"

If you are able to, you should be holding onto a few different things, instead of just cash in the bank....  You want to try and beat inflation with multiple different investments (bitcoin hopefully being one of them)...

[Dafar]

Bitcoin will
Not be big anytime soon. Im throwing my towel. I cant wait 3 ,5 years to ho to the "moon"

Moon for me will be when price stays between $1000 and $1050 99% of the time. That would be incredible!

So... you don't want the price to go over $1050? Or if it does, only 1% of the time... got it

[bbit]

All signs point to Bitcoin being a big game changer. Its not a matter of if , but when.

[Beliathon]

It seems clear to me that BTC will hit the big(ger) time and relatively soon.  But some folks (who do seem to have a good understanding of it) hold the exact opposite opinion.  Am I buying into the hype?  Besides regulation (which I don't think will end up being a problem in the Land of Innovation and many other countries), how else could BTC go wrong and turn out to be the fad some say it is.

Contrary to what a lot of people here will tell you bitcoin is not perfect and it can will be improved a lot.

Fixed that for you.

Moon for me will be when price stays between $1000 and $1050 99% of the time. That would be incredible!

This will probably never happen. Next time btc touches 1,000 it will be rocketing past, on its way to the moon.

[bitcoinrocks]

What about the emission rate?  BTC must stimulate enough buying pressure to counteract the selling pressure created by miners which I think is the reason for the downward price trend as of late.  How much BTC will be emitted over the next year, for example?

[Beliathon]

What about the emission rate?

The emission rate has importance inversely related to the stability of fiat currency. Each financial crisis will hasten the herd toward crypto until a critical mass is reached, this will become the historical "bitcoin moment". Also known as "the moon".

[Billbags]

What about the emission rate?  BTC must stimulate enough buying pressure to counteract the selling pressure created by miners which I think is the reason for the downward price trend as of late.  How much BTC will be emitted over the next year, for example?

By the word emitted, are you talking just generated? Or generated and sold?

[bitcoinrocks]

If you don't mind my answering your question with a question, are there estimates as to what percentage of emitted BTC are immediately sold?

[puwaha]

All signs point to Bitcoin being a big game changer. Its not a matter of if , but when.

What signs?

[Billbags]

@ op

That's a good question. I have a small mining farm and I do associate with a lot of miners. Most I talk with hold around 10%-20% and spend(not sell) the rest. In my case I use the gyft card to pay with bitcoin for just about everything except for major bills and gasoline.
I have mixed feelings on the gyft and bitpay because in the end it's just exchanged for USD. The larger farms are different. I know every once and awhile I would see bitmain selling, but they only sell in bundles of 1,000 bitcoins.

Another example is I gave my niece a miner that produces enough to pays for her electricity bill because she's in college and doesn't have much income. She sells once a month to pay that bill. The little bit of Bitcoin she has left she normally gets something from Amazon with the gyft app. I'm sure there are a lot of novice miners in that situation also.

As you can see, this estimate is hard to get close to ever being right.

Note: A lot of miners don't sell on exchanges because we get a much higher price from people that don't like or don't trust the exchanges. I don't have a problem with circle/coinbase but there are a lot of people do.

[bitcoinrocks]

Do we know how much will be emitted (sold or not) over the next year (or another period of time)?

[windpath]

Do we know how much will be emitted (sold or not) over the next year (or another period of time)?

Over the next 365 days about 1,314,000 bitcoins.

25 coins every 10 minutes until the next halving...

[bitcoinrocks]

Do we know how much will be emitted (sold or not) over the next year (or another period of time)?

Over the next 365 days about 1,314,000 bitcoins.

25 coins every 10 minutes until the next halving...

So we're looking at an inflation rate of about 10% over the next year.  With all the infrastructure sprouting up around BTC, I think it can absorb that and more.  How about years 2 and 3?

[Billbags]

The formula used for difficulty and Bitcoin block creation:(recalculated every 2016 blocks....one block=25 bitcoins)

This is the block chain's control theory feedback loop:

60minhr∗24hrday∗7dayweek 10minblock=2016 in 2weeks

Tcurrent=Tprior∗tprior/2weeks

D=work/2(32)=2(256)/(Tcurrent+1)∗2(32)

hashes/second≈D∗2(32)/600

This calculates every 2016 blocks and is supposed to be every 14 days, but since hashpower is added after the calculation is made it only takes 10-12 days most of the time to reach 2016. So the standard yearly estimate is always a little low.

[Billbags]

@op

Seems you are really taking everything into account and trying to make some researched educated decisions. If you have not read this I would really recommend it concerning the economics of Bitcoin:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/

Update: If you haven't watched this video please do, you will not be disappointed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM

[windpath]

Do we know how much will be emitted (sold or not) over the next year (or another period of time)?

Over the next 365 days about 1,314,000 bitcoins.

25 coins every 10 minutes until the next halving...

Yep, I'm quoting myself...

Here is a question for you: Is there any currency, other then bitcoin and derivatives, you can predict the emission rate of over the next year?

[segvec]

Time tells all, young Jedi.