Calling a five months target at $211 - next prediction on page 7 :)

[cryptojumper]

Maybe he is a huge whale that sets the price to whatever he wants... Could you OP please provide info on future price, especially if that's the case.
And make it a bit lower for a few days, I want to buy some

[Riddikulo]

Lol, perfect prediction!

[ensurance982]

Yup, I gotta chime in and applaud this prediction. I don't really know whether it was luck or really profound TA, but it was more or less on spot. Looking at the larger scale really makes me nervous and excited at the same time right now.

[fairglu]

FWIW the situation still looks fairly undecided, the price is getting squeezed in ever tighter margins, some of the resistance lines have become supports, but with diminishing volumes, this does not mean bulls have won.

Usually things should have broken out one way or another at this point, but it looks like this will be played to the very end.

Volumes are diminishing as the price gets squeezed, tentative deadline for the final convergence is May 2-3 at around $225. Things are really tight, any move with volume will show the direction.

I am still hoping this is a failing wedge, which the bulls should eventually win, but there needs to be a news of some sort to trigger things...

[bitkilo]

fairglu, you sound like you know what your talking about when it comes to price movements and predictions, have you had a go at this one yet?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1026282.0;topicseen

[ensurance982]

FWIW the situation still looks fairly undecided, the price is getting squeezed in ever tighter margins, some of the resistance lines have become supports, but with diminishing volumes, this does not mean bulls have won.

Usually things should have broken out one way or another at this point, but it looks like this will be played to the very end.

Volumes are diminishing as the price gets squeezed, tentative deadline for the final convergence is May 2-3 at around $225. Things are really tight, any move with volume will show the direction.

I am still hoping this is a failing wedge, which the bulls should eventually win, but there needs to be a news of some sort to trigger things...

We're still in the 'it can break down' phase, yeah. That being said, I would've expected the price to break down even more considering the dumps 1-2 weeks ago. It's remarkable that the price is still holding, yeah!

[fairglu]

It's remarkable that the price is still holding, yeah!

Yes, none of the big players are taking risks. It like sumos before the rush. Or bots on autopilot. hehe

[minerpumpkin]

FWIW the situation still looks fairly undecided, the price is getting squeezed in ever tighter margins, some of the resistance lines have become supports, but with diminishing volumes, this does not mean bulls have won.

Usually things should have broken out one way or another at this point, but it looks like this will be played to the very end.

Volumes are diminishing as the price gets squeezed, tentative deadline for the final convergence is May 2-3 at around $225. Things are really tight, any move with volume will show the direction.

I am still hoping this is a failing wedge, which the bulls should eventually win, but there needs to be a news of some sort to trigger things...

Looks like you were, at least sort of, right. We broke that first mini triangle pretty well the other day. No real consolidation, which is remarkable. Even the default direction seems to be still "up" at this moment. Let's see where this is getting us, we could re-test the current resistance line of the bigger falling wedge...

[bclcjunkie]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

what are the predictions for the next 5 months?

 btc crashing down, down, down...

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

what are the predictions for the next 5 months?

If consolidation of a floor does not happen before mid may, I would be tempted to think we could cross 2xx. If the opposite happens, a very slow uptrend might start. Take into consideration the big players are using this long term downtrend to try to pick up as much cheap hanging fruit as possible from the clueless non-longtermers.

[ensurance982]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

And the price is still going up!? Well I don't think the majority agrees with that assessment, to be honest. Also the price of the Bitcoins stuck there is supposedly fixed at over $400/bitcoin....

[Amph]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

why you think that? not everybody want to dump their precious bitcoin, also why dumping now, when those bitcoin were probably bought at a higher price, is beyond stupid

[fairglu]

Approx 7 months later, we have broken upward, from a charting lines POV we should be at the beginning of a bullish trend.

I do not have a pretty graph to back it at the moment, but for the fun of it, I will make two predictions:
* 2-3 months: $350 is possible for the summer, target is $325 by mid-july.
* 5 months: we will retest the $250 range in autumn.

It will be a bumpy ride, next confirmation will be testing of $290 by mid-june and staying above $225 until then.
Of course some black swan event might throw everything off, but that's the fun of it, isn't it?

And just FTR, do not ever speculate more than you can afford to lose.

[wenben]

So, anyone is profiting from following this post?

[BitmoreCoin]

So, anyone is profiting from following this post?

Don't think so. We did not know it was so accurate.

[yefi]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

why you think that? not everybody want to dump their precious bitcoin, also why dumping now, when those bitcoin were probably bought at a higher price, is beyond stupid

Depends if people have a choice, as the disbursement may have to be made in cash, in which case Kobayashi will auction the coins. There's also the 2.8 billion yen shortfall on Gox's books (about 23 million USD, or 96K BTC), which will need to be covered at least partially.

If the disbursement is made primarily in Bitcoin, then as you rightly say it is unlikely to make much of an impact.

[manselr]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

why you think that? not everybody want to dump their precious bitcoin, also why dumping now, when those bitcoin were probably bought at a higher price, is beyond stupid

Depends if people have a choice, as the disbursement may have to be made in cash, in which case Kobayashi will auction the coins. There's also the 2.8 billion yen shortfall on Gox's books (about 23 million USD, or 96K BTC), which will need to be covered at least partially.

If the disbursement is made primarily in Bitcoin, then as you rightly say it is unlikely to make much of an impact.

If the coins go to the owners hands as it should, I don't imagine the owners are very happy to hold BTC, they'll be paranoid as hell and will sell for filthy fiat. Im just hoping there are some intelligent people out there that can look at the big picture and keep their Bitcoins on a wallet.

[minerpumpkin]

200,000 bitcoins to be liquidated... i don't see this in any positive way for price recovery especially when confidence in bitcoin is waning... majority of the coins will be dumped as soon as they hit exchanges..

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/201504_notice1_en.pdf

why you think that? not everybody want to dump their precious bitcoin, also why dumping now, when those bitcoin were probably bought at a higher price, is beyond stupid

Depends if people have a choice, as the disbursement may have to be made in cash, in which case Kobayashi will auction the coins. There's also the 2.8 billion yen shortfall on Gox's books (about 23 million USD, or 96K BTC), which will need to be covered at least partially.

If the disbursement is made primarily in Bitcoin, then as you rightly say it is unlikely to make much of an impact.

If the coins go to the owners hands as it should, I don't imagine the owners are very happy to hold BTC, they'll be paranoid as hell and will sell for filthy fiat. Im just hoping there are some intelligent people out there that can look at the big picture and keep their Bitcoins on a wallet.

I don't think that they will go and sell their BTC. Either they've lost 'trading coins' on Gox, in which case we'll have to see what the people are doing with the reimbursed coins. Or they lost coins that have been held for a long time (using gox as a bank) in which case I believe the people are going to hold on to their coins, anyways.

[mrhelpful]

I`m calling it`ll be in the 100ish.

I say more of $180ish or if something drastic happens with a sell off, could prop to a lower value. The only way I see bitcoin retaining value always regardless of what people say would be illegal transactions.

This includes money laundering for online gambling sites that accept fiat more mainly.