don't panic, btc is doing well !

[600watt]

let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)

[fred1111]

We could still fall quite a bit, though certainly not by a factor of 80.

[asdlolciterquit]

let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)

no care about what anyone else can say: it's PRETTY BEARISH!!

[Zolly]

let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)

Doesen't help much how well btc did in 2012/2013. We are now in 2014...

You could use the same crap description and say it's bullish even at $ 16... As a ceo you would have been fired presenting these numbers as bullish..

Time to wake up

[colour]

[thms]

Let's all dump Bitcoin to < $50

Then we can all buy back in and become the "early adopters 2.0"!

[rebuilder]

It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

[DeadCoin]

Everything is fine, it has more than halved, but it's still above the water

[Tzupy]

...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math.

[fewcoins]

Stop talking price & start talking infrastructure... Bitcoin price is in a huge downtrend but the bottom has never looked closer. Regardless current price is no where near the price bitcoin will be after regulation. Good or bad. It might rocket to the moon or fall like a rock.

[nowfel]

well there is always a hope for btc  but i am little bit worried  what should do sell them now or hold?

[ravenjt]

well there is always a hope for btc  but i am little bit worried  what should do sell them now or hold?

What proportion of your wealth is in BTC?
It's speculative. Something big might happen that causes it to rise, like in Q4 2013. It might go to zero. It might just carry on slowly declining in $50 steps as it has done since summer.
If you have a diversified portfolio, you can be much more objective than if all your eggs are in the BTC basket.

[Capt Drake]

...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math.

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

[exocytosis]

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

[NotLambchop]

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

[fairglu]

[Tzupy]

...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math.

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

Very accurate, eh? Another one whose math I won't trust...
Gox prices, 266$ on the 10th April 2013, 66$ on the 5th July 2013, that's 24.8% not 15%.

[ravenjt]

There are a lot of threads at the moment about not panicking. Panic is clearly in the air.
I'm not sure why, we have just drifted down a bit, which is just another typical outcome for a day in 2014.
Or do people sense that another big crash is coming this weekend? Another whale-exit extraordinaire?

Last time it happened, with the low of 275, there was immediate strong buying pressure taking us back to 400. That's some serious profit on the way up, as well of course for shorters on the way down beforehand.

[Capt Drake]

...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math.

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

Very accurate, eh? Another one whose math I won't trust...
Gox prices, 266$ on the 10th April 2013, 66$ on the 5th July 2013, that's 24.8% not 15%.

Well I looked at the Stamp price and the top was 259.34, bottom 45 which give us 17%

[Sunderland]

Hmm , but all situation between 2012 -2013 is different with now.
3 weeks ago maybe im not panic , because i believe that price will hit more than $ 400 again.
But now .. i feel something going bad will happen soon  idk but i hope that was wrong.