Japan is new China?

[Wary]

The Bank of Japan just announced QE. Yet another reason for the existence of Bitcoin.

Huge adoption on November in Japan:

1. Kraken Launches in Japan
2. GMO-PG Enables 48000 Merchants Using Bitcoin as Payment Option
3. BitFlyer Rises $236000
4. Rakuten Accepts Bitcoin

After reading this post from wall observer, I've got an idea: The 2013 bubble was because of China (and Willy  ). What if 2015 bubble, next point of growth will be not Wall Street and not China again, but Japan?

Japan, just like China, has a lot of people with a lot of money they have nowhere to invest. Bank interest rates are around zero, economy in stagnation, entrance to business is controlled by big guys. So bitcoin is the solution a lot of Japanese are looking for. Is Japan the new China?

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[Newar]

Again: Silly numbers != huge adoption

[...]
Japan, just like China, has a lot of people with a lot of money they have nowhere to invest. Bank interest rates are around zero, economy in stagnation, entrance to business is controlled by big guys. So bitcoin is the solution a lot of Japanese are looking for. Is Japan the new China?

The difference is that the Chinese distrust their government and are looking to get money out of China. They also have a huge network of people outside China, that can receive that money. Neither is true for Japan.

[romjpn]

Well, I have doubts that japanese people will really want to play, speculating on Bitcoin.
We have a big handicap here (I live in Tokyo) : MtGox. Everybody think that MtGox = Bitcoin so Bitcoin = dangerous.
Japanese people love new technologies, but without a very heavy "back up" from a very big Japanese company, Bitcoin will have a hard time being trusted. I hope Rakuten will change that !
I don't think exchanges in here has 0 fees on transactions.
I'll try Kraken later, but for the moment the BTC/JPY pair has 0￥ volume. Even if I was really disappointed on Kraken decision to delete the DOGE/EUR pair which had ~1500$/day volume.

[Wary]

Again: Silly numbers != huge adoption

[...]
Japan, just like China, has a lot of people with a lot of money they have nowhere to invest. Bank interest rates are around zero, economy in stagnation, entrance to business is controlled by big guys. So bitcoin is the solution a lot of Japanese are looking for. Is Japan the new China?

The difference is that the Chinese distrust their government and are looking to get money out of China. They also have a huge network of people outside China, that can receive that money. Neither is true for Japan.

You are assuming that major reason why chinese were purchasing bitcoins was to sell them for dollars. And they were doing it because they afraid that chinese government will print zillion of yuans and they will drop to zero.

I'm sceptical of both points.

USD isn't better than yuan and Chinese government has no reason to start inflation. IMO, the major reason why Chinese were purchasing bitcoins is absense of other ways to invest their money (low interest in banks and high business entrance barriers).

The same two reasons exist in Japan - low bank interest and hard entrance to a business.
And the third reason: there is a lot of money in Japan.

So ... new China?

[touhonoob]

Well, I have doubts that japanese people will really want to play, speculating on Bitcoin.
We have a big handicap here (I live in Tokyo) : MtGox. Everybody think that MtGox = Bitcoin so Bitcoin = dangerous.
Japanese people love new technologies, but without a very heavy "back up" from a very big Japanese company, Bitcoin will have a hard time being trusted. I hope Rakuten will change that !
I don't think exchanges in here has 0 fees on transactions.
I'll try Kraken later, but for the moment the BTC/JPY pair has 0￥ volume. Even if I was really disappointed on Kraken decision to delete the DOGE/EUR pair which had ~1500$/day volume.

I think the sentiment has been changed recently since there are some positive opinions on twitter and news.

For Twitter: #ビットコイン
People are trying to explain the technology behind Bitcoin. http://www.digitalmoney.or.jp/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/20141003_BTC2.0.pdf
Some politicians (congressman) start publicly discuss about future applications of Bitcion. http://www.taro.org/2014/10/post-1543.php
 
For News: 楽天グループも導入､復活するビットコイン (Adoption of Rakuten Group, Revival of Bitcoin)

[Newar]

You are assuming that major reason why chinese were purchasing bitcoins was to sell them for dollars. And they were doing it because they afraid that chinese government will print zillion of yuans and they will drop to zero.

I have said not anything about dollars, you are making that assumption. I'm talking about getting money out of China. It is very difficult for them, doesn't matter where they send it to.

[...]
IMO, the major reason why Chinese were purchasing bitcoins is absense of other ways to invest their money (low interest in banks and high business entrance barriers).

The Chinese mindset is different to the Japanese. The Chinese invest money in pretty much everything they can get their hands on to. The Japanese are much more reluctant to jump on "new things".

[...]
And the third reason: there is a lot of money in Japan.

You have to look at where that money is. It is with the older generation that made their money pre-Asian financial crisis. That generation is not very tech savvy and highly skeptical of new things. The younger generation that may be a bit more open minded does not have a lot of money.

So ... new China?

No.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Bitcoin won't thrive in developed countries. Bitcoin could be marketed well on developing countries, where there is no proper tradition, a lot of new dumb money, a big part of the economy is illegal and the officials are corrupt.
Bitcoin needs a nation from either south-America or Africa to create a new boom. Japan is the exact oposite of an place that could be potential for bitcoin marketing.

[touhonoob]

The Chinese mindset is different to the Japanese. The Chinese invest money in pretty much everything they can get their hands on to. The Japanese are much more reluctant to jump on "new things".

Japanese are not as conservative as you think.
If Japanese are conservative, Japan can not become the most advanced country in Asia.

[Newar]

Japanese are not as conservative as you think.

And you are basing that on what? Please give an example. Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.

If Japanese are conservative, Japan can not become the most advanced country in Asia.

Most advanced in what? What year? Please be more specific.

[touhonoob]

Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.

Rakuten Group is one of the older generation. The CEO of Rakuten is 51 years old and he is bullish on Bitcoin.

[cbeast]

To the (Sailor) Moon!

[Newar]

Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.

Rakuten Group is one of the older generation. The CEO of Rakuten is 51 years old and he is bullish on Bitcoin.

Rakuten was only established in 1997. I'm more interested to hear about keiretsu type companies when talking big money. But, well done you found one. I can see where you're sentiment of "huge adoption" comes from.  

Even if Rakuten goes with bitcoin integration in Japan (their only one currently is in the US), it does not mean that bitcoin will be largely adopted by the general public. Exactly because - like you pointed out in the other thread - there are many, many options available to the Japanese already, most of which are more convenient than the use of bitcoin.

[Dalmar]

There's no strong gambling culture among the Japanese. They are more rational than the Chinese. 

[touhonoob]

Also, keep in mind that the "big money" in Japan is with the older generation, so even if the younger generation may seem to be more open minded, they don't have the money to invest in new things.

Rakuten Group is one of the older generation. The CEO of Rakuten is 51 years old and he is bullish on Bitcoin.

Rakuten was only established in 1997. I'm more interested to hear about keiretsu type companies when talking big money. But, well done you found one. I can see where you're sentiment of "huge adoption" comes from.  

Even if Rakuten goes with bitcoin integration in Japan (their only one currently is in the US), it does not mean that bitcoin will be largely adopted by the general public. Exactly because - like you pointed out in the other thread - there are many, many options available to the Japanese already, most of which are more convenient than the use of bitcoin.

Bitcoin has one important advantage over traditional solutions: low fee.
Once Japanese understand the technology and advantages of Bitcoin, they will accept it with no doubt.

[Newar]

There's no strong gambling culture among the Japanese. They are more rational than the Chinese. 

Gambling is also banned in Japan. But then there is Pachinko. So I think, if you would let them, they would. 

[touhonoob]

Online gambling is not strictly forbidden.
Moreover, Bitcoin is not a legally currency which means gambling on Bitcoin is not illegal.

[Newar]

Bitcoin has one important advantage over traditional solutions: low fee.
Once Japanese understand the technology and advantages of Bitcoin, they will accept it with no doubt.

Low fee if compared to international wire transfers, yes. Buying things, I don't think so.

Let's look at an example. In Tokyo at least I can use a PASMO/Suica card to buy a bowl of ramen. Say, 1000 yen (I know, pricey ramen). To get that money on the card I put a 1000 yen note in the machine and it loads my card. So there is 0.- fees involved for me as a user and can all be done in 5 minutes. Similarly, Edy can be charged for 0.- fees, if I'm not mistaken. And Edy I can use on Rakuten, Amazon (JP).

To get that amount in BTC, I would have to send money to the exchanges' bank (a bank fee there if it's not the same as mine), exchange it there (exchange fee applies) and, for convenience and safety, get the BTC to my wallet (another small fee there, potentially). No way that could all be done in 5 minutes. Additionally, since it does take longer, I'm exposed to the exchange risk. So what I thought I had put on my wallet to pay for the ramen, might not be enough by the time I finally make it to the shop.

So, no, I don't think the "low" fees will be the trigger for the Japanese to accept it to buy things.

[Newar]

Online gambling is not strictly forbidden.
Moreover, Bitcoin is not a legally currency which means gambling on Bitcoin is not illegal.

Can you please provide a link to a Japanese online gambling site, run by a Japanese company? Gambling, not sports betting.

I also think you might hit a bump with your interpretation of the law there. It's like saying buying drugs and get them to Japan is legal as long as you use bitcoin. As Teramoto-san found out, it's not: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/japan-makes-first-arrest-over-alleged-drug-trafficking-using-bitcoin-1447857

[touhonoob]

Bitcoin has one important advantage over traditional solutions: low fee.
Once Japanese understand the technology and advantages of Bitcoin, they will accept it with no doubt.

Low fee if compared to international wire transfers, yes. Buying things, I don't think so.

Let's look at an example. In Tokyo at least I can use a PASMO/Suica card to buy a bowl of ramen. Say, 1000 yen (I know, pricey ramen). To get that money on the card I put a 1000 yen note in the machine and it loads my card. So there is 0.- fees involved for me as a user and can all be done in 5 minutes. Similarly, Edy can be charged for 0.- fees, if I'm not mistaken. And Edy I can use on Rakuten, Amazon (JP).

To get that amount in BTC, I would have to send money to the exchanges' bank (a bank fee there if it's not the same as mine), exchange it there (exchange fee applies) and, for convenience and safety, get the BTC to my wallet (another small fee there, potentially). No way that could all be done in 5 minutes. Additionally, since it does take longer, I'm exposed to the exchange risk. So what I thought I had put on my wallet to pay for the ramen, might not be enough by the time I finally make it to the shop.

So, no, I don't think the "low" fees will be the trigger for the Japanese to accept it to buy things.

I agree with you.
Adoption of Bitcoin in real-life scenarios is not as easy as online scenarios.
BitCash is widely used in online/mobile games in Japan which has a percentage fee for game developers.
If Japanese game developers find the advantage of Bitcoin and start adopt it, people will accept it just like they accept BitCash, which has 4 billion yen annual turnover.

[azguard]

By the look of things seem like there are going to be.
This can be good but can be bad ass well.

Dont know how will this influence in the market cap or market exchanges, but let hope for the best.