VEscudero
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Bitcoin, Ripple & Blockchain pioneer
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June 18, 2012, 04:58:29 PM |
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I dont understand how anyone can believe this is a sound investment. Mind you, that goes for all mining bonds on GLBSE, not just Philj's..
I think friedcat has made a very good explanation of why this is not as bad as you might think. I know there are some other options in which you can invest your money for a much higher interest rate. It depends on your risk profile, for example you might want to invest in pirate bonds for a highest reward at the expense of a higher risk. One of the best things of mining bonds is that although their returns are not very high, as they are backup for a real mining activity their pretty safe investments, as their dividends will be self adjusted in reaction to external events. Mining difficulty will smoothly react to absorb bitcoin prices fluctuations, mining rewards halving in a few months or any technological advances that could hit the market. IMHO the key difference here is how much confidence you might have in the skills of the issuer as she/he will have to deal with these kind of changes making the right decisions.
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EskimoBob
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June 18, 2012, 05:01:22 PM |
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Thank you for your answers. Good idea is to play with this calculator http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php and see what happens to the return if diff keeps going up at 8% per month. It probably slows down at some point but you can draw a new chart from that point on. Return from 1 Mh becomes so small and so fast, it is hard to believe. 1 Mh will earn you this in 6 months if diff grows 8% per month : 1 0.018 2 0.015 3 0.012 4 0.01 5 0.008 6 0.007
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While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head. BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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P4man
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June 18, 2012, 05:21:10 PM Last edit: June 18, 2012, 05:34:27 PM by P4man |
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I think friedcat has made a very good explanation of why this is not as bad as you might think. I know there are some other options in which you can invest your money for a much higher interest rate. It depends on your risk profile, for example you might want to invest in pirate bonds for a highest reward at the expense of a higher risk. Funny, I actually think the risk of investing in pirate bonds is substantially lower, even though I suspect its a ponzi scheme. At least with pirate, if you pull out your investment before the collapse, you might actually make a pretty penny. These mining bonds I can only see go down, its a matter of how fast. One of the best things of mining bonds is that although their returns are not very high, 7% per month is actually pretty high, its just that Im rather certain it will be completely eclipsed by an exponential increase in difficulty. Just a continuation of current trends will make your investment a bad one, and thats pretty much a best case scenario. Mining difficulty will smoothly react to absorb bitcoin prices fluctuations, mining rewards halving in a few months or any technological advances that could hit the market. Wow. The first part is true, but irrelevant; the second part, highly dubious, the last one, absolutely not. Perhaps you should look what happened when we transitioned from cpus to gpus. Compared to what ASICs will do, that was actually a baby step. Its not the just the performance of these chips that are so radically better, its the pricing mechanism that will cause an explosion in difficulty beyond anything you've ever seen and your 1MH bond will be rendered utterly worthless. IMHO the key difference here is how much confidence you might have in the skills of the issuer as she/he will have to deal with these kind of changes making the right decisions. Actually, no. If you read some of my other posts, you may have noticed I dont believe asic mining can be profitable for a miner period. The only skill one can show is staying out of it. Well, unless he sells bonds to "suckers" who dont understand the feedback loop that will be triggered when difficulty rises, causing $/GH of asics to drop proportionally, causing more difficulty rise etc etc until ASICs are priced somewhere near variable cost, or perhaps some 100x lower than what BFL announced and difficulty would be 1000x what it is today. Good luck making money with fixed speed mining bonds under those circumstances. Id much rather buy some greek debt.
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P4man
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June 19, 2012, 07:22:58 AM |
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ASICs coming on line is a whole different beast. Its entirely possible that one or two of the larger mining operations will be able to match today's entire network hash rate. The question is simply when this will happen. My guess is early to mid 2013.
BFL just announced availability in October this year. Im willing to take that with a table spoon of salt, but still, best of luck to all mining bond holders.
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EskimoBob
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June 24, 2012, 01:29:29 PM |
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Hi, as you probably know, those perpetual N MH/s "bonds" are similar to FRN's (Floating Rate Notes). FRN's are also called "floaters", so I am inviting you all to call all the perpetual bitcoin floaters as "Turd(s)".
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While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head. BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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chunglam
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July 08, 2012, 01:08:28 AM |
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Hi Philj, Now, gigamining has confirmed his upgrade plan. Could you provide us a more specific upgrade plan for your bond? After gigavps announcement, his bond price rose up from 0.95 to 1.25. Thanks.
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JWU42
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July 08, 2012, 02:05:50 PM |
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What was the pricing on the incremental bonds? The last public wall you put up at .25 never got touched...
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chunglam
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July 08, 2012, 02:54:02 PM |
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Hi Philj, Now, gigamining has confirmed his upgrade plan. Could you provide us a more specific upgrade plan for your bond? After gigavps announcement, his bond price rose up from 0.95 to 1.25. Thanks.
I will be creating a new sub asset with a new contract that is the same wording except I will be giving myself a larger payment window (all day Sunday instead of 12-5 Sunday), and the bond will move to 20MH/s as long as the two following conditions are met. 1. The performance of the new singles is 40GH/s each. If for example they are each only 30GH/s then the bond will move to 15 MH/s. 2. I receive all 8 of the singles that have been ordered at the same time and they are in solid working order. If I get a subset of my full order or if any of my order does not work properly, then I will have to do a stair step upgrade. For example If I get 4 working singles instead of 8, then the bond will move to 10MH/s temporarily, then when the other 4 are received the bond will move to 20MH/s. Everyone will get the ability to upgrade their bonds at no charge. The new contract will be created after I have the new gear in hand and can verify the speed of the new equipment. Bonds will be upgraded starting on a Monday and will cover that week beginning on Sunday, just as the current weekly payment method works (Sunday through Saturday, paid Sunday). My goal throughout this process is to not screw over myself, or those that invested in this. I don't intend to pay out more than the equipment is capable of making, nor am I going to try to make a few extra bucks off of this upgrade process. Also, at this time I'm not going to be releasing any more bonds because I really don't want to be in a situation where I can only upgrade part of my equipment at once. Currently I have 8 singles that will be upgraded which should be 320GH/s and I've sold 14500 bonds which equals 290GH/s. This leaves me with a little extra to cover electricity costs and potential downtime. I will still be expanding, just not releasing any more bonds until after the dust settles from the move to ASIC. I hope this answers all your questions. If not, please ask away and I will answer openly and honestly. Phil Thanks for your clarification. I think PIMP is severely undervalued at current market price.
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chunglam
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July 08, 2012, 02:56:06 PM |
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What was the pricing on the incremental bonds? The last public wall you put up at .25 never got touched...
YABMC is also serverely undervalued, I bought a few tens of YABMC share @0.12
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Jurek
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August 19, 2012, 07:46:40 PM |
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Re: ASIC upgrade
0.009 BTC per 1Mh/s ? Naaah, I'll pass. Not really competitive offer
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chunglam
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October 02, 2012, 12:44:42 PM |
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Sorry for the delay. I sent coins to glbse for this week's dividend early this morning, but they are still showing 0 confirms on my client. Hopefully they will be there in the morning.
Any status update?
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zapeta
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October 23, 2012, 11:56:15 PM |
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Due to GLBSE closing I too will be closing up shop on this mining project. I don’t yet have full detail on the numbers of who has how many shares, but my guess at this point is that 4-5 people hold 2000+ bonds each, and that the remaining bonds are held in rather small numbers by a few people. The way I portioned out bonds:equipment was 2000 bonds for each BFL single and upgrade combo with 1500 bonds not released to cover my costs. In closing, I’d like to give bond holders two basic options, and we can work out details and timing.
Option 1: a bond holder may turn in 2000 bonds and get one (1) BFL Single ASIC shipped to a United States address, once I receive the device myself. I will cover shipping costs. If someone is very close to the 2000 and they do want to get an ASIC, we can work something out. I do realize that one of the big advantages to ASICs will be the early adopters while the difficulty is still “low”, and I’m willing to work with bond holders to either point an ASIC at a pool/worker of their choosing for a few weeks, or try to work direct shipping arrangements from BFL.
Option 2: Once all bondholders who have enough bonds to exercise option 1 have made their decision (not to exceed 1 week after ASICs are received) the remaining ASICs will be sold and funds will be distributed between remaining bond holders.
Sorry to anyone that this has inconvenienced, but all the negative Bitcoin scams and closing has really turned me off of Bitcoin recently, and I don’t want to continue without GLBSE. Hopefully this closing will be considered one of the better endings to something Bitcoin related.
In advance of getting data from GLBSE, I’d like to ask bondholders to either PM me or post how many bonds you have. If you have over 2000 please let me know which option you would prefer. For the most part I have a good idea who my big holders are, and I won’t be sending anything without verification, this is just to get a basic idea of how things look.
How many shares are outstanding? Also, are you still mining as of now? I'm assuming all proceeds will be distributed once you have shareholder info.
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AngryCatfish
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October 24, 2012, 07:12:07 AM |
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Monthly be any easier?
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PsychoticBoy
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November 20, 2012, 01:02:13 PM |
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How can you possibly verify that I have 100 or 1000 PIMP shares, without any decent shareholders information?
This whole claiming part makes no sense, not only yours Phil, but everyone who want information from "possible" shareholders.
Greetz
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Audriux9
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December 05, 2012, 11:24:44 PM |
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Philj, could you post an update of what is the current situation with PIMP holdings?
Have you already received any info from GLBSE?
How is it going with the hardware sale? Have you been already paid by new ASIC owners?
Thanks
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We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
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AngryCatfish
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December 06, 2012, 05:55:23 AM |
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I received no such email from you and filed a claim with csv and screenshot.
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AngryCatfish
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December 06, 2012, 05:44:09 PM |
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Apparently I had received a double payment (less then .09) and hadn't even realized it till I checked over my client confused that I wasn't getting any emails from stock holders. James got back to me in less then 8 hours with an address so hopefully all will be sorted soon.
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PinkBatman
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December 06, 2012, 11:04:18 PM |
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Email responded.
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