Silk road fall led to nov 2013 bubble! Silk road 2 fall leads to?

[Addition]

How is it similar? We haven't seen the flash crash.

Silk Road bust was huge news, this is just meh. Besides, at that time it held a lot of percentage of actual BTC use.

Right on brother! It's different this time - 1st flash crash when Mt Gox was having capacitance issues leading to trading/BTC withdrawal/server upgrades (SR volume during that time was severely affected) - 2nd flash crash 4Hrs before SR seizure (/2-3 day recovery)

From what I gather, circa 400 Tor Domains + 3-5 marketplaces seized - many are still operational for now, and this is why price is going up (think about it, vendors want their lovely BTC, it's worth more to them now because of affected trade - Many would be temporarily lying low until Op Omymous "gives" all clear (of sorts) and assessed with a degree of confidence their next marketplace migration is viable.

If all the highest traffic/BTC volume Dark-markets (Evo, Aroga, Mid Earth?) are confirmed seized in next 2 weeks or tor trading deemed unsafe (most vendors/buyers do not invest in tunneling VPN) - Then would expect some kind of flash crash.

I'm seriously doubting, this will be the case - not confident FBI/EuroPol are capable as I hear some of the bigger dark markets have domain modulation and real-time server/site migration/back up in place?

Does anyone here have a reputable source to infer trading volumes? I hear since July Evo & Aroga BTC volume is much higher than SR 2.0 (MUCH > $8mil/month as the FBI estimated)

Not a Tor user, so don't know general fee structure, but lets say it was roughly 1%, that's only $80,000/month the admins/staff would have been taking - still lucrative, enough to invest in seizure-mitigation  

[andy35]

Does anyone here have a reputable source to infer trading volumes? I hear since July Evo & Aroga BTC volume is much higher than SR 2.0 (MUCH > $8mil/month as the FBI estimated)

Not a Tor user, so don't know general fee structure, but lets say it was roughly 1%, that's only $80,000/month the admins/staff would have been taking - still lucrative, enough to invest in seizure-mitigation  

I never used tor but SR2.0 must have been making big money. The Irish times says €180,000 worth of drugs were seized together with bitcoin valued at around $2.5 million. I guess most of the bitcoins were siezed from the Irish supplier.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/dublin-and-us-main-focus-of-darknet-drug-site-takedown-1.1992173

While LSD and ecstasy valued at around €180,000 was seized when gardai moved in on Wednesday on a business premises on Dublin’s South Circular Road allegedly being used as a drugs distribution hub by the main Irish suspect, bitcoin valued at around $2.5 million has been seized in the global operation.

[nothing2seeHere]

Does anyone here have a reputable source to infer trading volumes? I hear since July Evo & Aroga BTC volume is much higher than SR 2.0 (MUCH > $8mil/month as the FBI estimated)

Not a Tor user, so don't know general fee structure, but lets say it was roughly 1%, that's only $80,000/month the admins/staff would have been taking - still lucrative, enough to invest in seizure-mitigation  

I never used tor but SR2.0 must have been making big money. The Irish times says €180,000 worth of drugs were seized together with bitcoin valued at around $2.5 million. I guess most of the bitcoins were siezed from the Irish supplier.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/dublin-and-us-main-focus-of-darknet-drug-site-takedown-1.1992173

While LSD and ecstasy valued at around €180,000 was seized when gardai moved in on Wednesday on a business premises on Dublin’s South Circular Road allegedly being used as a drugs distribution hub by the main Irish suspect, bitcoin valued at around $2.5 million has been seized in the global operation.

I believe that these figures were actually seized from a vendor/seller on SR2, and not from the site itself. I am not 100% sure that any bitcoin was actually seized from SR2 as I have not seen any addresses where the seized bitcoin was transferred to (the bitcoin was all transferred to one address when bitcoin was seized from SR1)

[Superhitech]

If Silk Road falls make the BTC price go up, all we have to do is create silk roads, and get the fbi to take them down.

Genius!

[jaberwock]

Unless silk road 2 bust leads to more demand from China, I guess not at all.

And I don't think SR2 was the main reason from 2013 bubble

[ElectricMucus]

By what metric?

By what metric? Are you serious?

BY EVERY METRIC EXCEPT PRICE.

Would you even make such an asinine comment if the price was $2,000/coin?

THERE IS MORE TO THE BITCOIN ECONOMY OTHER THAN PRICE, PEOPLE.

Quote your sources then.

[btcney]

Quote your sources then.

Ummm..try the amount of transactions, for one.

The amount of businesses accepting Bitcoin, for two.

The increase in ATM availability, for three.

The launching of Bitcoin funds like GABI, for four.

The massive increase of darkmarket usage, for five.

The increase in buying in places like Venezuela, for six.

The fact that you never have anything positive to say, for seven through infinity.

You can't possibly believe the Bitcoin economy hasn't grown MASSIVELY since this time last year?

Goddamnit this place is full of whiny malcontents.

/r/bitcoin seems like a better place for you.

[maker88]

SR2 wasn't the most used DNM or even the 2nd.

By what metric?

how about number of listings? or number of vendors?

[Addition]

Here's a list of confirmed Seized sites (correct of yesterday)

http://gizmodo.com/here-are-all-the-dark-net-markets-seized-in-operation-o-1656541553


Some marketplaces have ensured their vendors/clients by saying "all is good" but thus far haven't seems any rationale from Admins technically justifying their immunity to seizure.

Would be great to see an official statement from FBI/Europol if/when this phase of Op Onymous ends. Perhaps we won't hear anything as the Op is ongoing?

I don't know how many Dark Markets that are out there? I heard at least two new ones have emerged (they trade/escrow DarkCoin exclusively). It seems that most people think Evolution and Agora are the largest with respect to BTC transaction volume.

If these two majors get shut down - there will be a short-term affect on BTC's price index

[okthen]

SR2 leads to nothing at all.
(It didn't even lead to a decent crash)

[freedomno1]

SR2 leads to nothing at all.
(It didn't even lead to a decent crash)

If anything I'm starting to see the signs of a slow but rapidly accelerating recovery
Which would be weird

[ElectricMucus]

SR2 wasn't the most used DNM or even the 2nd.

By what metric?

how about number of listings? or number of vendors?

How about you post it.

[ScreamnShout]

Here's a list of confirmed Seized sites (correct of yesterday)

http://gizmodo.com/here-are-all-the-dark-net-markets-seized-in-operation-o-1656541553


Some marketplaces have ensured their vendors/clients by saying "all is good" but thus far haven't seems any rationale from Admins technically justifying their immunity to seizure.

Would be great to see an official statement from FBI/Europol if/when this phase of Op Onymous ends. Perhaps we won't hear anything as the Op is ongoing?

I don't know how many Dark Markets that are out there? I heard at least two new ones have emerged (they trade/escrow DarkCoin exclusively). It seems that most people think Evolution and Agora are the largest with respect to BTC transaction volume.

If these two majors get shut down - there will be a short-term affect on BTC's price index

I believe the operation was suppose to last for ~24 hours, although I would say the damage will be permanent. I would say there is a very good chance the methods they took down illicit onion sites will mean that legit sites that are acting illegally in their home country (for example trying to promote democracy) will shut themselves down out of fear their home country will arrest their operators