Why Bitcoin won't succeed

[SiliconAlchemist]

The amount of money made till now isn't that much.

How do you mean, the amount of money made till now?

That's easy: 9286150 BTC.

And it's supposed to take 100 years to reach 21 million? I don't see that happening

[1714035472]

1714035472

[Hexadecibel]

I remember when trolling meant something

[Foxpup]

The amount of money made till now isn't that much.

How do you mean, the amount of money made till now?

That's easy: 9286150 BTC.

And it's supposed to take 100 years to reach 21 million? I don't see that happening

Bitcoin production follows a geometric progression:


Every four years, half of the remaining bitcoins are mined. The number of bitcoins in existence gets ever closer to, but never quite reaches, 21 million. If bitcoins were infinitely divisible, the number of bitcoins in circulation would keep increasing forever, but still never reach 21 million. But since bitcoins are not infinitely divisible, creation of new bitcoins will cease when the block subsidy drops from 0.00000001 to 0.00000000, at which point the number of bitcoins will be fixed at exactly 20999999.97690000. This will happen sometime around the year 2140.

[Kazimir]

And it's supposed to take 100 years to reach 21 million? I don't see that happening

Currently, 50 bitcoins are mined approximately every 10 minutes.
Every 4 years, this amount will halve. December this year will be the first time. From then on, it's 25 BTC every 10 mins, etc.

So what's the theoretical maximum number of bitcoins ever to see the light of day:

4 years worth of 10 minute intervals is 4 × 365 × 24 × 60 / 10 = 210240 'mining hits' every 4 years.
The first 4 years it's 50 BTC per hit, next 4 years it's 25, then 12.5, etc.. so in total that's 210240 × 50 × (1+½+¼+...) = 210240 × 50 × 2 = roughly 21 million.

When will this be reached:

After N periods of 4 years, a fraction of 2^-N unmined bitcoins remains. This means that around the year 2040, 1-2^{(2040-2008)/4} ≈ 0.996 or about 99.6% of all bitcoins have been mined.

[finkleshnorts]

I too am worried about network security once the mining subsidy drops off. Either there will *have* to be mad transaction volume per block (which is a challenge in more than one way), or transaction fees will be really high (which makes bitcoin seem less revolutionary to the untrained eye).

[AmazonStuff]

Bitcoins are going to be best possible way to send and receive money on international level. So as more people use it, it will be more and more popular and it will gain in it's value. Bitcoins open the field of low cost money transactions and there is no reason for them not to be popular and accepted worldwide. So, as much people trade via it, the stronger it will become.

[wildgift]

I'm sure that bitcoins will be superseded by something with characteristics similar to btc, but easier to switch to traditional currencies.  Bitcoins are a really smooth way to transact online, and the banks are probably trying to copy some of its features.

[Wasi]

No one have the power to destroy such a great creation (that already is established). Maybe it will not be bitcoin in it's current state but there is a huge chance that a decentralized money system will lead the market sooner or later.

[AmazonStuff]

No one have the power to destroy such a great creation (that already is established). Maybe it will not be bitcoin in it's current state but there is a huge chance that a decentralized money system will lead the market sooner or later.

Well, for sure there will be competition, but I think it's it counts who started first...

[localhost]

I too am worried about network security once the mining subsidy drops off.

Meh, all these people who bought FGPAs and ASICs will have to keep them running to try and break even

[realnowhereman]

I'm sure that bitcoins will be superseded by something with characteristics similar to btc, but easier to switch to traditional currencies.  Bitcoins are a really smooth way to transact online, and the banks are probably trying to copy some of its features.

The methods of exchange for traditional currencies aren't a property of bitcoin; they are property of the traditional currency financial networks.

Please enlighten us, how this alternative currency you imagine is going be made easier to switch?

Should you have an answer, whatever your answer is, what stops bitcoin adopting it too?

It bitcoin is superseded, it won't be because of exchange mechanisms.  Most likely it will be superseded by Bitcoin2 when the developers want to make some huge revolutionary change, and it will probably be capable of importing all the transactions from bitcoin1.  The network effect is what keeps bitcoin at the top of the cryptocurrency tree.

[wildgift]

I'm sure that bitcoins will be superseded by something with characteristics similar to btc, but easier to switch to traditional currencies.  Bitcoins are a really smooth way to transact online, and the banks are probably trying to copy some of its features.

The methods of exchange for traditional currencies aren't a property of bitcoin; they are property of the traditional currency financial networks.

Please enlighten us, how this alternative currency you imagine is going be made easier to switch?

Should you have an answer, whatever your answer is, what stops bitcoin adopting it too?

It bitcoin is superseded, it won't be because of exchange mechanisms.  Most likely it will be superseded by Bitcoin2 when the developers want to make some huge revolutionary change, and it will probably be capable of importing all the transactions from bitcoin1.  The network effect is what keeps bitcoin at the top of the cryptocurrency tree.

Maybe a country would accept it for payment of taxes.  That's how other national currencies were created.

[realnowhereman]

Maybe a country would accept it for payment of taxes.  That's how other national currencies were created.

Governments already have currencies that are accepted for taxes.

Even better, they can print as much of them as they want.

[Kazimir]

Governments already have currencies that are accepted for taxes.

Even better, they can print as much of them as they want.

Haha, exactly. Why don't they just print their own tax money, and leave us Bitcoin users the hell alone

[realnowhereman]

Governments already have currencies that are accepted for taxes.

Even better, they can print as much of them as they want.

Haha, exactly. Why don't they just print their own tax money, and leave us Bitcoin users the hell alone

You joke; but I've often thought that it would be better it governments were banned from borrowing and had to print money to make up their deficits.

That would mean it is the current recipients of government largesse (or at least the same generation) paying the cost of that largesse.  (I wonder how quickly populations would start demanding spending restraint when countries with 20% deficits started suffering 20% inflation).

[memvola]

Why don't they just print their own tax money, and leave us Bitcoin users the hell alone

Let's make this a slogan.

[knokturnl]

Better enjoy the bitcoin wave while it lasts! I know I will

[A_CardeN]

I think it has done pretty well so far!

[atm]

Why don't they just print their own tax money, and leave us Bitcoin users the hell alone

Let's make this a slogan.

Not like their stingy with printing these days.

[mokahless]

Longest troll thread ever. Why hasn't it been locked? The original author hasn't posted since.